Week 14 of the NFL season was the first time in which there was not a single player that was found in each of the four winning lineups discussed in this article across large GPPs. Most of the chalk underwhelmed this weekend so sporadic pivots propelled lineups to the top. The most common theme amongst the lineups was exposure to the 49ers/Saints game that produced 94 total points. In that game, both quarterbacks were around one-to-two-percent owned across the industry and the stone chalk in that game, Alvin Kamara (NO), failed to reach 8.0 DraftKings (DK) fantasy points. Targeting the passing game in the fantasy-friendly Mercedes-Benz Superdome somehow proved to be contrarian which, in hindsight, proved to be a huge mistake. The lucky few who took advantage of the market being on other games were the ones who found themselves atop leaderboards…
On DK, user “gsh1963” won $1 Million with a Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) single-stack with Emmanuel Sanders (SF) and faded the Kamra chalk as a run-back. In fact, gsh1963 faded a run-back completely, and instead rostered a 4.5-percent owned Austin Ekeler (LAC) instead. Ekeler’s teammate, Melvin Gordon III (LAC), garnered almost exactly three times the ownership (14.9-percent) in the same contest and Ekeler out-scored him by 17.9 fantasy points. In this lineup, a 6.2-percent owned A.J. Brown (TEN) was deployed as a one-off as was 16.3-percent owned Robby Anderson (NYJ) and 11.4-percent Aaron Jones (GB). All three of the aforementioned players produced at least 28 fantasy points which was why gsh1963 was able to sustain a total flop from Austin Hooper (ATL) and a mediocre game from James White (NE). When the smoke cleared, gsh1963 won this contest by 12 fantasy points, so it was not even much of a sweat:
In the $1M Wildcat, “papagates” won this contest yet again and this time it was on the heels of a full Titans team stack. Instead of just rolling out a simple QB-WR stack, papagates also rolled out the team’s run-dependent tailback. My personal rule when deploying this sort of stack is “only when you believe the team is going to score 40-plus points,” and guess what? The Titans scored over 40-points (42 to be exact) on the road versus the Raiders. At just $5,800, Ryan Tannehill (TEN), who rated as a top five per-dollar option at the position according to the DailyRoto model, Tannehill threw for 391-yards and three passing touchdowns (TDs) against the Raiders’ 28th ranked passing defense (per Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric). Papagates ate the receiver chalk in DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) and Michael Thomas (NO) which proved to be much more profitable than relying on running back (RB) chalk this week.
Over on FD, “frankcapone16” shipped the $1.65M Sunday Million contest with a Drew Brees (NO)-Thomas single-stack that was run back with George Kittle (SF). Cheap, chalky tight end (TE) Ian Thomas scored and posted a nearly identical score so it was interesting to see yet another winning lineup with Kittle as opposed to the cheaper alternative. The reason Kittle was in multiple tournament-winning lineups is because he was part of the highest-scoring game stack and targeting that game naturally brought Kittle into builds. FD’s scoring more heavily weights scoring and frankcapone16’s lineup accumulated 14 total TDs from his eight offensive players including a whopping six TDs from Brees alone. Zach Pascal (IND) and Terry McLaurin (WAS) were valuable pieces of the build who each found the end zone in their own right. Whereas Pascal was 12.3-percent owned, McLaurin was just 2.0-percent owned and arguably made the best catch of the entire slate to haul in his TD.
In the $400K Monster, “kingtrout” only needed 169.34 fantasy points to take down $100,000. By comparison, the Sunday Million winner scored 206.46, so there was nearly a 40-fantasy point differential between the winning lineups. Jameis Winston (TB) was not present in any of the other winning lineups but he threw for 456 yards and scored five total TDs. The problem with Winston was that his top target, Mike Evans (TB), left the game after scoring a 61-yard TD. Also, Chris Godwin (TB) did not reach 100-yards, nor did he score, so Winston builds did not include an obvious smash pass-catcher to pair him with. In this contest, the Winston-Evans contest was good enough, especially when mixed with four other players who scored in their own right as well.
Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “pettytheft89” was selected due to his success (as his top lineup finished 31st in the Millionaire). When all said and done, pettytheft89’s most heavily exposed himself to Alvin Kamara (NO). Two of his top three exposures were bad chalk and the other member of that trio left after his only catch due to a hamstring injury. However, some of his next highest exposures made up for the busts, especially because his top exposure to any player was only 50-percent. Here were the players he was most heavily exposed to (in order):
- Alvin Kamara (50.0-percent)
- Mike Evans (48.7-percent)
- Bilal Powell (44.7-percent)
- George Kittle (39.3-percent)
- Michael Thomas (38.0-percent)
- Devonta Freeman (35.3-percent)
- DeAndre Hopkins (32.7-percent)
- Jameis Winston (31.3-percent)
- Melvin Gordon III (27.3-percent)
- LA Chargers Defense (24.7-percent)
- Jamison Crowder (24.7-percent)
- Baltimore Defense (24.0-percent)
- Parris Campbell (23.3-percent)
- Christian McCaffery (20.7-percent)
- Chris Godwin (20.0-percent)
The obvious noteworthy aspect to his build was the focus on chalk and the Buccaneers stack specifically. This proved to be a tough break as Mike Evans left after his one TD catch and has since been ruled out likely for the remainder of the season. Hopkins and Thomas were such strong plays at receiver that the lineups where they were paired together propelled this build…especially with Winston in the mix. There was likely too much Kamara/Powell in the build to give pettytheft89 too many chances to bink but his build still worked out nicely. Nice work, pettytheft89.
Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!