FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
NFL DFS Week 14 WOAT: DraftKings Weekly Ownership and Trends
DREWBY
Print Friendly

This will be a weekly series discussing DraftKings Weekly Ownership and Trends (WOAT) in Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments that we can use to better ourselves as DFS players. If pricing were perfectly efficient, some DFS players could beat GPPs on ownership alone. Vince Lombardi once said ownership isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.

Shout out to my friends at The Fantasy Fanatics for access to their NFL Ownership tools which I leveraged for most of this analysis. You can access all ownership data in their premium tools.

Week 14 Look Back

Last week’s article focused on how David Johnson and Le’veon Bell were building our fantasy rosters for us, and well, I wasn’t wrong. DJ and Lev were the highest owned players across double up and GPP formats. Because it was obvious this was where the market was headed with roster construction, we were also able to successfully predict high ownership on Emmanuel Sanders, Taylor Gabriel, Pierre Garcon and Cameron Meredith in the value range. Each of these players found themselves inside the top 10 highest owned wide receivers and were foundational components on many winning cash game and double up lineups. We were also able to predict generally low ownership on high priced wide receivers, although with Julio Jones being inactive that percentage concentrated a bit more on Mike Evans and Odell Beckham than it may have otherwise. Regardless, the entire wide receiver range between Sanders at $5700 and Beckham at $8000 did not have a single wide receiver who was owned in more than 15% of lineups.

Similarly we were able to guess that lower tight end values Ladarius Green, Cameron Brate and Vance McDonald would be more popular than guys like Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert. With nobody paying for tight end, and Zach Ertz seemingly overpriced even more so among those names, he snuck through as the #1 play of the week at just 3% ownership across most formats. Tight end continues to be a position where there is little correlation between ownership and actual results.

Because Le’veon Bell went absolutely bananas en route to a 55 point DraftKings game, and because a lot of the cheap plays it forced people onto were also productive, the market was accurate in creating lineups. That is to say most people were creating their teams by paying up at RB and down at WR, and that aligned with actual best lineups of the week. This basically left a situation where no Le’veon = No Cash. But what if in a parallel universe this wasn’t the case? What if Bell was held to a still awesome but more pedestrian 25 point outing? 100+ yards on the ground, a couple catches and a touchdown. Cash lines in a tournament like the $150 3-max were 151 to cash and 208 to ship it, with larger field formats carrying slightly higher winning totals and lower cash lines.  If Bell hadn’t went absolutely bananas, the winning score of GPPs would have went from 208 all the way down to 178, with cash lines around 135 points. And what if instead, Mike Evans had grabbed a bunch more balls and produced a solid 20 more fantasy points? Well, then the winning rosters would have gone from stars and scrubs formats that you saw last week to teams littered with premium WR names like Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanual Sanders, to name a few.

The results are what they were, and Le’Veon Bell was a pre-requisite to winning anything last week. But as David Johnson showed us, this output isn’t always a given. It is at least interesting to see how just one or two swings in performance, something that could reasonably happy on a week, can dramatically shift the optimal roster construction.


premium_access_now  WEEK 15 PROJECTIONS  |  DST  |  KICKERS  |  TARGETS  |  CARRIES  |  RED ZONE  |  HISTORICAL  |  SNAPS  |  DEFENSE


DJ and Bell have seen an Nth consecutive price bump and the ownership feels like it still isn’t going anywhere, as the usage will have both players projected high on all content sites (including ours). This will immediately force people to search for value which they’ll find in both Kenneth Dixon and Kenneth Farrow at running back this week. Do your diligence into the roles, risks and rewards with both of these players this week as they will dictate results in both cash games and tournament formats. I anticipate both players should garner ownership at RB or the flex position, with Tevin Coleman perhaps picking up some steam coming off a big week in LA.

As with every week, it isn’t hard to pay down at tight end and I’ve already heard Jermaine Gresham and Delanie Walker touted, along with some lingering ownership on Cameron Brate and Ladarius Green. Tight end has perhaps been the best position to pivot on the entire season. With tight end also having low flex usage historically, I think lineups paying up for any combo of Jordan Reed, Jimmy Graham (Full Slate Only), or Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce offer a lot of touchdown equity with plenty of PPR upside. Meanwhile, punting to save salary with a Gresham or Walker seems like a fine trade-off, but given the variance we’ve seen from cheap tight ends, that might not be the angle you need to go if seeking tournament winning upside.

With the flex value at RB slightly more present this week, I think we will see ownership sprinkle back up a little bit on our expensive wide receiver options than last week. That said I have to imagine we’ll continue to see some of the higher priced wide receivers vacated in favor of the likes of JJ Nelson, Marqise Lee or Allen Robinson (among others). As outlined in my premium article earlier this season, the market has also been wrong more often than they’ve been right on wide receiver. Last week’s results aside, it’s worth thinking hard about the variance of cheap value wide receivers before inserting them into your lineup.

Ownership – Key Stacks

With stacking being the most popular GPP strategy, the way people approach stacks is always interesting to me. What are the most popular stacks? Are there sharp and square stacks? Again, leveraging The Fantasy Fanatics we can take a look at in-depth granular ownership data on how people are approaching their stacks…

If slates are being dictated by performance of Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson, the other big swinging factors are value wide receivers and then the stacks. Below are the 10 most popular stacks that were trotted out in the $333 Wildcat, including every combination owned in more than 1% of teams.

Stack Team Pos Salary % of Cap Wildcat QB Ownership Wildcat Stack Ownership % of QB Play
Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. NYG QB,WR 13500 27.00% 10.07% 7.57% 75.17%
Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton IND QB,WR 14400 28.80% 7.96% 4.21% 52.89%
Mike Evans, Jameis Winston, Cameron Brate TB WR,QB,TE 19700 39.40% 10.14% 3.49% 34.42%
Colin Kaepernick, Vance McDonald SF QB,TE 8800 17.60% 10.14% 3.36% 33.14%
Mike Evans, Jameis Winston TB WR,QB 15600 31.20% 10.14% 3.36% 33.14%
Pierre Garcon, Kirk Cousins WAS WR,QB 10500 21.00% 13.46% 3.19% 23.70%
Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson GB QB,WR 13200 26.40% 5.24% 2.74% 52.29%
Desean Jackson, Kirk Cousins WAS WR,QB 11500 23.00% 13.46% 2.63% 19.54%
Greg Olsen, Cam Newton CAR TE,QB 12200 24.40% 3.71% 1.83% 49.33%
Sammy Watkins, Tyrod Taylor BUF WR,QB 10700 21.40% 2.39% 1.60% 66.95%
Jameis Winston, Cameron Brate TB QB,TE 10800 21.60% 10.14% 1.42% 14.00%
Emmanuel Sanders, Trevor Siemian DEN WR,QB 10800 21.60% 2.95% 1.21% 41.02%
Jason Witten, Dak Prescott DAL TE,QB 9000 18.00% 2.59% 1.08% 41.70%
Kirk Cousins, Jamison Crowder WAS QB,WR 11900 23.80% 13.46% 1.06% 7.88%
Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Trevor Siemian DEN WR,WR,QB 16800 33.60% 2.95% 1.04% 35.25%

premium_access_now  WEEK 15 PROJECTIONS  |  DST  |  KICKERS  |  TARGETS  |  CARRIES  |  RED ZONE  |  HISTORICAL  |  SNAPS  |  DEFENSE


This week I took a bit of a different approach, comparing the ownership of the stack to the ownership of the individual QB in the same GPP. Given all the Eli Manning teams, what percentage of them are paired with a specific wide receiver? In aggregate, 75% of Eli Manning owners chose to pair him just with Odell Beckham, with a slightly lower 65% mark for pairing Tyrod Taylor just with Sammy Watkins. These were the most concentrated stacks for a given QB, and while it seems unlikely that Eli would go off without Odell, the same can’t always be said of a more boom or bust deep threat option like Sammy Watkins. When he gets there, he does so on a high variance play or two.

Meanwhile someone like Kirk Cousins was paired just with Pierre Garcon on 23% of his teams, Desean Jackson on 19% and Jamison Crowder on 8% of teams. While the reason for the spread ownership is clear to most who play DFS, it is more concentrated if you are selecting QBs with obvious weapons. It is worth noting how much leverage you can generate if you are able to hit on a QB who has a plethora of options, and you are able to isolate the right one at an ownership discount. In a world where both Kirk Cousins and Eli Manning are projected identically (and equally owned) your Cousins stacks are sure to create more leverage when you are able to hit on the right pass catchers than Eli stacks will.

Who are our favorite stacks? Be sure to check out our premium tools for projections on all of our favorite QBs, WRs and value plays for this week’s slate and good luck closing out the season!

Facebook Comments
NFL Free