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NFL DFS Week 15 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 15 GPP Recaps
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Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde were not as volatile as Jameis Winston (TB) has become as an NFL quarterback (QB) and he flashed both the good and the bad on Sunday. Early on, Winston threw an interception (INT), his league-worst 24th of the season, but he continued to take chances after his initial mistake. Sunday marked the fourth time already this season in which he had topped 10 yards per attempt (YPA) and he finished with a season-high 458 yards passing and four touchdowns (TDs)…all with Mike Evans (TB) out with a hamstring issue and Chris Godwin (TB) left in the third quarter with a tweaked hamstring as well. Many were sharp enough to target Godwin as the top target remaining in the passing game but was a low-owned Breshad Perriman (TB) who won large field tournaments with his 100-plus yards and three scores. On a weekly basis, DailyRoto recommends double-stacking Winston because he is so heavily-reliant on his arm, and this week the double stack paid off massively.

On DK, user “rbx88” rode the Winston-Godwin-Perriman double-stack to glory and this user did not decide to run the game stack back with anyone from the Lions. Instead, rbx88 rolled out a trio of running backs (RBs) who scored multiple TDs and, in fact, Saquon Barkley (NYG), Chris Carson (SEA) and Kenyan Drake (ARI) combined to score eight times and each one topped the 100 rushing yard plateau as well. Drake was the highlight of the trio as he was both the lowest-owned of the bunch but also the highest scoring as he found pay dirt four times. Kyler Murray (ARI) was the highest-owned quarterback (QB) of the slate so using the team’s starting RB instead proved to be huge leverage on the field, especially when paired with the nuts double-stack. Every offensive player in the lineup topped 20 DK fantasy points and it took every single fantasy point for him to edge out second place “Shore44.” Here was the winning lineup:

In the $1M Champ Series Wildcat, user “MM50FK” unsurprisingly rolled out a Winston stack en route to a 242.02 fantasy point winning lineup. However, this stack did not feature Perriman, and because of the higher stakes nature of the contest (and a smaller field), there was a bit more room for error. Unlike the $1 Million winning lineup, there was a dude in MM50FK’s lineup: Ronald Jones II (TB). This user was likely expecting the team to score 40-plus points and lead late in the game when the team could rely on the run. Unfortunately, that game flow did not come to fruition, and Jones finished with just 49 total scrimmage yards and 5.9 DK fantasy points. Otherwise, the lineup was obviously quite strong, and the highlights were a 9.3-percent owned Julio Jones (ATL), 3.6-percent owned Miles Sanders (PHI) and 2.9-percent owned Travis Kelce (KC) who all topped 28 fantasy points. MM50FK’s lineup featured the two highest-scoring players of the entire slate (Drake and Jones) and was well-rounded enough to take home $200,000:

Over on FD, “bigmike1969” was able to overcome a dreadful week from his defense because the Winston-Perriman duo smashed so hard. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) only garnered an ownership rate of 5.3-percent in a game where the offense scored 44 total points and Elliott finished with over 150 scrimmage yards and two TDs. His RB trio was very close to the nuts on the slate and proved my hypothesis once again that focusing on workhorse backs is the way to go in daily fantasy football. Bigmike1969 played the volatility in the receiving core where he rostered three players in single-digit ownership who all topped 100 yards. Unlike some of the previous lineups, bigmike1969 played a run-back in his Tampa Bay stack but ran it back with Danny Amendola (DET) as opposed to Kenny Golladay (DET). Playing the number two receivers on each time proved to be insanely sharp and netted this user $250,000:

In the FD Live Final, “paulyshorts” did not even roster Winston and still was able to win $490,000 with a Ryan Tannehill (TEN)-A.J. Brown (TEN) stack. In a live final with 80 total entries, it is not surprising to see a winning lineup have some issues, but Christian Kirk (ARI) was really the main obstacle paulyshorts was forced to overcome. Otherwise, he put together a winning lineup without the highest scoring RB nor the four highest-scoring WRs of the week which is impressive in and of itself. Tannehill only threw for 279 yards and two TDs but it was a heavily-concentrated attack to developing number one receiver Brown who caught eight passes for 114 yards and a score. FD’s scoring system is more scoring-centric so Todd Gurley (LAR) ending up in the winning lineup was more likely than on DK (where he was a bit less effective due to his 38 yards from scrimmage). Again, there was no run-back in this lineup, which shows that game stacks are not necessarily a must in tournament-winning lineups. Essentially all the winning lineups this week lacked much correlation beyond QB-WR stacks, and one of the discussed lineups on DK even featured failed correlation (with a QB-RB stack in a game that was not quite a true onslaught). Paulyshorts rode this lineup to victory:

 

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “ChipotleAddict” was selected due to his success (as his top lineup finished 27th in the Millionaire). When all said and done, ChipotleAddict most heavily exposed himself to Christian McCaffery (CARwhich is familiar strategy to me (because my strategy is always to heavily expose myself to a workhorse back of my choice each week). All three of his top exposure plays were smashes as was Saquon Barkley (NYG) who he finished with 43.3-percent of.  Here were the players he was most heavily exposed to (in order):

  1. Christian McCaffery (76.7-percent)
  2. Tyler Higbee (62.0-percent)
  3. Danny Amendola (54.7-percent)
  4. Keenan Allen (47.3-percent)
  5. Saquon Barkley (43.3-percent)
  6. Philip Rivers (38.0-percent)
  7. Darren Waller (38.0-percent)
  8. Chris Godwin (34.0-percent)
  9. NY Giants Defense (34.0-percent)
  10. Dede Westbrook (32.0-percent)
  11. Chris Conley (22.0-percent)
  12. Jameis Winston (20.7-percent)
  13. Larry Fitzgerald (20.0-percent)
  14. Patrick Laird (18.7-percent)
  15. Christian Kirk (18.7-percent)

The obvious noteworthy aspect to his build was his massive leverage on the field with McCaffery and his affinity to pair him with value plays Tyler Higbee (LAR) and Danny Amendola (DET). If it were not for other outlier cheap receivers, this build could have smashed even harder than it did. The top two tight ends (TEs) in the build were amongst the highest scoring of the weekend and Higbee was by far the best value at the position. Amongst the top 15 exposures, it took until his ninth highest exposure for the first true flop. When any build is so heavily concentrated with productive players, it is destined to be a nice week. Nice work, ChipotleAddict.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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