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NFL DFS Week 16 GPP Recaps

NFL DFS Week 16 GPP Recaps
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Time is a flat circle and what has been will be again. After the year began with “double stack and bring one back” lineups dominating the landscape, the world descended into chaos for seven straight weeks. However, Week 16 brought the triumphal return of correlation and order to the DFS world and everything was put to rights again – even if no one still understands what happened in the Chiefs/Falcons game. While the best lineups of the day were dominated by players from the worst teams in the league, and some ownership numbers got way out of hand even in large contests, it was an entertaining final week of NFL DFS before silly season hits in Week 17.

DraftKings

NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]

On DraftKings, the big million-dollar winner was “jwsherry” with a score of 217.78 point. Their Texans “double stack and bring one back” of Watson, Cooks, and Johnson, along with Higgins from the Bengals put together the core of the winning lineup. The Texan/Bengals game started slowly but 51 second half points were scored in the game as the game stack in this lineup totalled 114.66 points. Obviously that core was the heart of the winner but 5% owned Gallup putting up 33.1 points was the biggest difference maker in the lineup. Getting a touchdown pass from 15.9% owned Crowder on his way to nearly 30 points was an unexpected bonus too.

David Montgomery was the highest owned player in the contest at over 43% in a prime matchup versus the Jaguars but while everyone else was clamouring to game stack the expected shootout between the Falcons and Chiefs, “jwsherry” had no players from that game and that made all the difference. Avoiding disappointing performances from 22% owned Melvin Gordon and 20.4% owned Le’Veon Bell was also a boon to their results.

In all, it’s the fifth single entry winner of the NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire this season and the second one in a row. Through 16 weeks of the 2020 season, there were only two max entry winners of the Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on DraftKings. Obviously one season is a small sample size, but it’s interesting to note that this year max entering was not a significant advantage when it came to actually winning the contest. Given how top heavy the payout structure continues to be, players should be wary of max entering large field GPPs in a field where the environment is so competitive.

NFL $200K Game Changer [$50K to 1st, Single Entry]

In the world of high stakes single entry contests on DraftKings, “arguous” was the big winner with a score of 192.1 points. Their Bears “double stack” with Trubisky, Montgomery, and Robinson was the core of the stack but instead of a bring back from the Jaguars they actually doubled down on the blowout by stacking the Bears DST on to the group as well. A secondary game stack of two Texans and two Bengals including Johnson, Cooks, Higgins, and Bernard rounded out the lineup. This was the most heavily correlated winner of any contest covered here this season with eight players coming from just two games. The odd man out was Hooper from the Browns who was the main beneficiary of their having had to play without their entire starting receiving corps.

Having no players below 5% ownership and two at nearly 30%+ made this a somewhat chalky lineup but avoiding the most popular game environment of the day made it unique none the less as Chiefs and Falcons players made up five of the top 15 owned players in the contest. Although Parham had a fair performance at minimum salary for many lineups, passing him over at 28.4% ownership in favour of Hooper was also a big difference maker for the winner.

Fanduel

$1.5M NFL Sunday Million ($300K to 1st)

On Fanduel, the big MME winner was “andycrayons” with a score of 198.98 points. Their Texans “double stack and bring one back” included Watson, Cooks, Johnson, along with Higgins from the Bengals. It was the same lineup core that won the day over on DraftKings as well. Their chalky Ekeler pick underwhelmed but huge performances from Crowder, Lamb, Kelce, and the 5.4% owned Panthers DST more than made up for it. The Panthers amassing four turnovers, three sacks, and a special teams TD made them a necessity to win on Fanduel as they scored 21 points.

$1M NFL Fan Championship Encore ($200K to 1st)

In the world of high stakes contests on Fanduel, “ruigi” was the big winner with a score of 184.7 points. Their Cowboys “double stack and bring one back” including Dalton, Cooper, and Gallup along with Sanders from the Eagles combined for an unexpected 85.18 points at just 15.8% combined ownership for the Cowboys trio. It’s worth noting that this $200K win was probably the biggest of Dalton’s career. As was the story across the industry, Montgomery, Crowder, and Kelce showed up in this winner. Unlike on DraftKings though where Crowder and Gallup carried moderate ownership, they were both under 5% ownership in this contest.

Pro Spotlight

The final pro spotlight of the season shines on “TeeJayOrTj” with a 35th place finish in the NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] on DraftKings. Their top finishing lineup in the contest was a Texans “double stack and bring one back” including Watson, Johnson, and Cooks, along with Higgins from the Bengals. Gallup and the Panthers DST also made appearances but unfortunately flops from Gordon and Slayton kept the lineup from getting all the way to the top.

Of their 150 lineups in the contest, there appeared to be an underlying rule of “at least single stack with one bring back” while there were also likely ownership constraints placed on the build as well given 149 of their 150 lineups were unique builds. In a contest that had one player over 40% ownership, two over 30%, eight players over 20%, and two TEs accounting for 55.48% total ownership at one position, being unique was no small task. The rest of their top 15 player exposures broke down like this:

Player Exposure Ownership
Austin Ekeler 35.3% 18.0%
Melvin Gordon 34.0% 22.2%
Calvin Ridley 32.7% 17.6%
Mike Williams 30.7% 10.2%
Brandin Cooks 29.3% 10.2%
Tee Higgins 28.7% 16.7%
Darrell Henderson 27.3% 9.4%
David Johnson 25.3% 14.1%
Noah Fant 22.7% 4.8%
Travis Kelce 20.7% 31.4%
Tyreek Hill 20.7% 16.1%
Deshaun Watson 20.0% 7.9%
Amari Cooper 20.0% 10.7%
Justin Herbert 20.0% 5.3%
David Montgomery 18.7% 43.8%

Congratulations to all the big winners in Week 16 of the 2020 NFL DFS season!

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