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NFL DFS Week 2 GPP Recaps

NFL DFS Week 2 GPP Recaps
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For the second week in a row, the Packers and Falcons offences figured heavily into the lineups of Sunday’s big winners across the industry. Also, for the second week in a row, every winner of the big contests won with correlations of “double stack and bring one back”. Every time I read that line, I hear it in the voice of Lil’ Jon singing “take that and rewind it back” from Usher’s hit “Yeah!”. While Derrick Henry was the highest owned player in contests across the board, he was also one of the biggest disappointments as he parlayed an exceptional matchup versus the lowly Jaguars into just 84 yards rushing. The second highest owned player on the slate was Week 1’s must have WR, Davante Adams. Despite the Packers putting up 40+ points for the second straight week, he was held to just three receptions and 36 yards as he left the game early with an injury. The major engine of the Green Bay offence this week was instead running back Aaron Jones who cruised to 236 total yards and three TDs. The other must haves for winning lineups this week were Dak Prescott, Jonathan Taylor, and Calvin Ridley.

DraftKings

NFL $4.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire

Unlike Week 1, in which silver bullets stole the spotlight, all but three lineups in the top twenty were from multi-entry players. Eight of the top 10 finishers in the contest all had a core of Dak Prescott, Aaron Jones, Calvin Ridley, and some combination of two Dallas pass catchers. Also, unlike Week 1, getting a low owned QB double stack was not the deciding factor. Instead, having the right supporting cast RBs made all the difference. The big winner on the day was “goners” with a score of 248.9 DK points.

Week 1’s king maker, Aaron Rodgers, was the second highest owned QB on the slate at 12.02% as he led an offence into a game with the second highest game total on the slate. It was the Packers’ other Aaron though that was the million dollar pivot, as he was just the 9th highest owned RB on the slate and the Packers offence ran through him to the tune of 236 total yards and three TDs.

A look at “goners” twenty entries in the contest yields some interesting results. With his 20 entries in the contest, he had 75% exposure to Derrick Henry (double the field), a Sam Darnold double stack, and his only Aaron Jones exposure wound up in the winning million dollar lineup. It being a two TE lineup with all the values available at RB and WR on the slate was the icing on the cake. There’s always some luck involved in DFS and fortune smiled on “goners” on Sunday evening. For the second week in a row, “double stack and bring one back” was the winning stack formula and “goners” used that strategy in four of his twenty entries.

Player Exposure Ownership
Dak Prescott 25% 11.2%
Aaron Jones 5% 8.9%
Miles Sanders 30% 9.2%
Calvin Ridley 25% 11.9%
Amari Cooper 30% 17.5%
CeeDee Lamb 25% 13.4%
Travis Kelce 20% 5.1%
Jordan Reed 65% 11.9%
Colts DST 45% 3%

NFL $250K Game Changer [$50K to 1st, Single Entry]

In the world of single entry contests, “ryanmax” was the big winner with a score of 204.60 points. Simply avoiding the highest owned player on the slate, Derrick Henry, put him ahead of 38.6% of the field. As is a running theme in 2020, “double stack and bring one back” was the winning strategy even in single entry. Even a 1.5 point performance from Chris Herndon at 26.14% ownership and a 7.8 point game from Michael Gallup at 9.1% ownership couldn’t keep him from the win. Unlike large MME contests like the milly maker, you don’t need to have a perfect lineup to win in single entry contests.

With AJ Brown out in Week 2, most players went to Corey Davis (11.36% ownership, 12.6 points) following his big Week 1 performance but it was Adam Humphries that was the biggest producer at WR for the Titans while Jonnu Smith with the biggest beneficiary of all with 24.4 points including two TDs. The leverage play that won him the contest in some ways was exposure to the Titans offence with Adam Humphries that provided 15.8 point at only 4% ownership while most other players rostered the more expensive Derrick Henry and Corey Davis.

Fanduel

$3M NFL Sunday Million ($1M to 1st)

On Fanduel, the big million dollar winner was “charliechase21” with a score of 219.3 points. Again, “double stack and bring one back” was the winning formula, but this was a slight variation on the usual build as running back Ezekiel Elliott was used as part of the Dak double stack along with CeeDee Lamb. Elliott has had an increased role in the passing game this season and his seven targets in Week 2 made him as much a receiver with rushing upside as anything. A secondary stack in the lineup, which seems to be less used of late, was the RB/DST combination of Aaron Jones and the Packers defence. Getting a defensive TD from a 2.9% owned unit was a big boost for “charliechase21”. Having three TDs on five targets for his TE, Higbee, at just 3.2% ownership, helped a lot too. A total of 16 TDs scored in his lineup in a TD heavy scoring system was his path to victory.

$1M Sun NFL ALL OUT BLITZ ($200K to 1st)

In the world of high stakes on Fanduel, “ideapop” was Sunday’s biggest beneficiary with a winning lineup of 202.2 points. Unlike the other winners on the day though, “ideapop” went as far as a “triple stack and bring one back” including the aforementioned receiver with carries, Ezekiel Elliott. Calvin Ridley and Aaron Jones were two of the other common winning pieces this week along with Jonathan Taylor who had an excellent debut as the Colts lead back with 110 total yards and a TD. Interestingly, no player in the winning lineup was below double digit ownership.

Pro Spotlight

One pro that had himself a nice day was “headchopper”, gaining a 3rd place finish in $3M NFL Sunday Million on Fanduel along with a top 50 finish in the NFL $4.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire on Draftkings.

Of his ten lineups in the NFL $4.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire, it’s interesting to note how relatively flat his exposures were across the board as he used seven DST, six QBs, and 44 total players in just ten lineups. Production from DST units is quite volatile, so it often pays to have varied exposures at the position. Eight of his ten lineups featured a “single stack and bring one back” strategy. He was not significantly overweight on the two biggest busts on the slate, Adams and Henry, despite their being two of his top three exposures. The leverage he gained by being double the field or better on all of Cooper, Taylor, McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Lamb, and Aaron Jones though certainly must have made for a tidy profit.

Player Exposure Ownership
Davante Adams 40% 26.3%
Amari Cooper 40% 17.5%
Derrick Henry 40% 35%
Jonathan Taylor 40% 22.4%
Terry McLaurin 40% 4.4%
Kyler Murray 30% 18.6%
David Johnson 30% 6.5%
Diontae Johnson 30% 9.8%
Parris Campbell 30% 11.6%
CeeDee Lamb 30% 13.4%
DeAndre Hopkins 30% 17.1%
Aaron Jones 30% 8.9%
Corey Davis 30% 13.3%
Julio Jones 30% 13.5%
Marvin Jones 20% 6.1%

Congratulations to all the big winners in Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season!

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