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NFL DFS Week 2 GPP Recaps

NFL DFS Week 2 GPP Recaps
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The tilt between the Chiefs and Steelers at Heinz Field resulted in a whopping 79 total points and yet the game stack did not take down all tournaments across the industry. On FD, an extremely contrarian double stack somehow someway led to a million dollars instead. We continue with our NFL DFS GPP recaps breaking down the Week 2 action.

Note: “FD” refers to FanDuel and “DK” refers to DraftKings throughout this piece

A person who goes by the username “knottystern” took down FD’s Sunday Million contest by pairing Kirk Cousins with both of his team’s top receivers: Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. From a strategy perspective, not enough people deploy double stacks, especially when stopping to think about why the strategy is logical. If/when a quarterback (QB) is going to break a slate, it likely is going to be due to them throwing for 300-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns (TDs). The outlier positive QB of the week is going to throw for enough yards and multiple scores to sustain multiple weapons unless the offense is incredibly concentrated or the team finishes off drives with multiple troll TDs. Also, notice Phillip Lindsay‘s presence in the lineup (more on that later). With the Vikings stack, “knottystern” deployed the absolute nuts at the running back (RB) positions. Here is the lineup that earned him/her the top prize:

 

 

For what it is worth, the “nuts” at the RB position was easy to identify by using DailyRoto’s projections. Both Todd Gurley II and Melvin Gordon rated as top six values at the position for us on FD and Christian McCaffery ranked fifth for us as well (and he was featured in sporadic lineups throughout the top 10). Regardless of which stack users chose to build around using our tools, these players would have been scattered throughout lineups (see image below). In the FD Blitz ($200,000 to first), user “peteyt” won with an incredibly similar lineup to the $1 Million lineup:

 

 

The play that stands out here is the 1.4-percent owned Austin Seferian-Jenkins at just $4,600. By comparison, David Njoku, who rated as one of DailyRoto’s preferred punt options across the industry, was $700 more expensive on FD, showing that Seferian-Jenkins was a punt play in the truest sense. In Week 2, Seferian-Jenkins played 87.3-percent of the snaps and caught a TD pass from Blake Bortles in what was arguably his best game as a professional (completed 29-45 passes for 377 yards, four TDs, one interception (INT) and a 111.1 QB rating in a win versus the Patriots). He was the leverage play in the lineup outside of the Vikings triple stack that won everything on FD.

On the other hand, the key to winning $1 Million on DK proved to be the Chiefs/Steelers game stack but done in a contrarian fashion. Instead of using 28.6-percent owned Antonio Brown or 18.9-percent owned Tyreek Hill, user “JEREMYHEIN” instead rolled out Patrick Mahomes (11.9-percent ownership) with 2.5-percent owned Sammy Watkins, 4.4-percent owned Travis Kelce and ran the stack back with 13.6-percent owned JuJu Smith-Schuster. The DailyRoto team was all over this stack this week as noted by Mike Leone in his Sunday Million Breakdown and in the Tournament Plays and Stacks Breakdown article from Friday as well. Naturally, the key was taking the contrarianism a step further and locking in a Mahomes contrarian double stack with a Brown/Conner fade and that took guts.

Amazingly, “JEREMYHEIN” also constructed a lineup so strong that he managed to survive the Gordon II fade (19.2-percent owned) by pivoting to Christian McCaffery (14 receptions (RECs) for 102 yards in this contest). Oh, and here is that Lindsay character again, who broke out in Week 1 and kept the momentum going in Week 2. At just $4,400, Lindsay enjoyed 48.3-percent of the rushing market share while only playing 35.1-percent of the snaps, and he is simply a spark plug. His speed was never in question but has already become a problem for opposing defenses as evident by his Week 2 performance. The winning lineup:

 

 

In the DK Wildcat, user “StevieStacks84” rode the Bortles/Keelan Cole stack to victory paired with most of the players already discussed in the article. Cole was the classic case of “last week’s chalk going under-owned” as he came in at just 1.3-percent ownership in the contest despite a reasonable $4,900 price point. Although Cole ranked second on the team in targets, behind only Donte Moncrief, he caught a higher percentage of his passes (87.5-percent), led the team in RECs (seven) and receiving yards (116) and he was one of four pass-catchers who scored a TD for the Jaguars. Essentially, this was another lineup dominated by the KC/PIT game stack with some Vikings and Jaguars sprinkled in. On Sunday, that was the magic recipe.

 

 

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “Mallen21” was selected due to his success. In the millionaire maker, Mallen21’s top lineup finished 12th and he put in 150 entries. When all said and done, Mallen21 did not have more than 70-percent exposure to any player he used (exact same top exposure as the pro examined in last week’s piece), with Tevin Coleman topping the list. Here were the players he had the most exposure to:

  1. Tevin Coleman (70-percent)
  2. James Conner (63.3-percent)
  3. Kenny Golladay (46.0-percent)
  4. Dalvin Cook (45.3-percent)
  5. Matthew Stafford (41.3-percent)
  6. LA Rams Defense (39.3-percent)
  7. Houston Defense (34.7-percent)
  8. Kareem Hunt (33.3-percent)
  9. Antonio Brown (32.7-percent)
  10. Dante Pettis (28.7-percent)
  11. Patrick Mahomes (28.7-percent)
  12. James White (24.7-percent)

The first thing that stands out in his builds is the number of flops in the top 10. All it took was one lineup for Mallen21 to overcome a less-than-ideal build that was salvaged by the Mahomes ownership. At 11.9-percent ownership, Mallen21 enjoyed 16.7-percent leverage on the field and a whopping 31.8-percent leverage over the field on Golladay who dropped 20.9 fantasy points at just $4,800. Since these tournament structures are so top heavy, 12th paid out $7,000 and therefore that one entry more than paid for twice his entry fees (150 x $20 = $3,000). If mass multi-entering, the key is to take a stand on players who leverage the field, and Mallen21 had a few nice hits this week amongst all the misses.

Two weeks, two mass multi-entry players who focused on 70-percent exposure as their maximum exposure to any player. This will be a trend to watch moving forward in this section of the piece.

Congratulations to all the winners!

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