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NFL DFS Week 3 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 3 GPP Recaps
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Due to a scheduling issue, the GPP article took a week off last week, but it is back in time for Daniel Jones (NYG) week. On Sunday, Jones had a historically dominant first start and did so at a muted ownership level in every contest that is going to be discussed. According to Jordan Raanan on Twitter, Jones is just the second player since the 1970 merger to record both two rushing and passing touchdowns (TDs) in his first NFL start. The other? Eric Hipple in 1981. He also recorded the most fantasy points ever by a rookie quarterback (QB) in his first career start, per Scott Barrett on Twitter, and led his team to an 18-point comeback victory…

He also led user “bobbywow1” to a $1 Million first prize on FanDuel in the $3 Million Sunday Million contest. Unlike the GPP breakdowns for Week 1, the winning lineup in this contest both included a double-stack and a run-back with Mike Evans (TB). Okay, so one of the winners (DraftKings only) used a run-back stack in Week 1, but it was in the higher-stakes Wildcat tournament ($150 entry) and the player who was run-back was disappointing. Bobbywow1’s run-back player did not disappoint this week as Evans caught a season-high eight passes on 15 targets to go along with 190 yards and TDs (all in the first half). This lineup also included both Sterling Shepard (NYG) and Evan Engram (NYG) who each topped 100 yards receiving with a score. Jones was cheap enough ($6,000) where a double stack was not mandatory but, generally, when targeting a pass-first QB, the idea is that if a player goes off enough to win a tournament, they will likely need to throw multiple TDs to do so. Unless a QB focuses on one receiver, like Jameis Winston (TB) did in the first half, then it is easily possible for multiple pass-catchers to potentially post lines similar to Shepard/Engram. Every single player offensive skill player in the lineup scored at least one TD and only David Johnson failed to reach 100-plus yards from scrimmage. Here is bobbywow1’s ridiculous lineup:

In the $500K NFL Monster, “bigpapagates,” a returning winner to this article, also rolled out the Jones-Shepard-Engram-Evans game stack. In a contest with only 1,234 total participants, unlike the Million which featured 396,825 entries, there was slightly more margin for error. Whereas 238.54 won the Million, this contest was won with a score of 208.64 by a lineup that included 23.3-percent chalk Chris Carson (SEA) and his 3.6 fantasy points. Strangely, both lineups built around a disappointing 49ers defense as well, whose output was doubled by a Patriots defense that was scattered throughout other teams in the top 10. This is what bigpapagates’ lineup looked like:

A different setup entirely took down DraftKings’ $1 Million first prize contest as Winston was the winner’s QB of choice. User “hishboo” rolled out a lineup that scored a whopping 275.7 fantasy points in total and did not feature a single weak link in his lineup (as every offensive player managed at least 29 fantasy points other than Rex Burkhead who was priced below $4,000). Not only did this lineup include a QB/wide receiver (WR) correlation stack but it also sneakily included a running back (RB)/defense (DEF) stack as well (Panthers). Four separate players in the lineup were sub-7.0-percent owned with Phillip Lindsay (DEN) coming in at just 2.9-percent owned. After back-to-back games with seven-plus targets to start the year, Darren Waller (OAK) was also in just 5.9-percent of lineups. When all said and done, he exploded for 13 receptions (RECs) on 14 targets (!) for 134 yards and he added one rushing attempt for seven yards. Unquestionably, this was a lineup that deserved to win:

User “rikkidee,” another reoccurring name in this column, took down the $1.4M Wildcat on DraftKings with the same Jones-Shepard-Engram-Evans game stack that has been the theme of this article but his lineup had some unique characteristics as well. He rolled out a tight end (TE) in the FLEX spot which was the first time a dual TE lineup has won a tournament discussed in this article in 2019. Habitually, especially this year, TEs have posted fantasy outputs that equate to those of stud receivers and yet their price is discounted. Additionally, 1.2-percent Darrel Williams (KC) made rikkidee’s lineup as a pure punt ($3,000) and he ended up catching five passes en route to 15.9 fantasy points. Rostering a minimum-priced Williams, especially with Darwin Thompson (KC) potentially entering the mix, was an extremely risky proposition (especially for an expensive entry contest)…but it paid off:

 

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “pettytheft89” was selected due to his success. When all said and done, pettytheft89 most heavily exposed himself to Christian McCaffery (CAR) and he overall ran a very tight ship. In total, pettytheft89 had at least 40-percent exposure to four different players. He seemed to key in on chalky players he had confidence in and complemented them with lower exposure boom-or-bust type players. Here were the players he had the most exposure to (in order):

  1. Christian McCaffery (70.0-percent)
  2. Chris Carson (44.0-percent)
  3. Jameis Winston (42.0-percent)
  4. Julian Edelman (40.0-percent)
  5. George Kittle (37.3-percent)
  6. Evan Engram (36.7-percent)
  7. Mike Evans (36.7-percent)
  8. J. Howard (33.3-percent)
  9. Austin Ekeler (32.0-percent)
  10. Keenan Allen (31.3-percent)
  11. Nelson Agholor (28.7-percent)
  12. Zach Ertz (28.0-percent)
  13. Dallas Defense (24.7-percent)
  14. DeAndre Hopkins (20.7-percent)
  15. Sterling Shepard (18.7-percent)

The noteworthy aspect to his ownership percentages were the heavy commitments he made throughout the top 14. Whereas user rikkidee basically only committed heavily to two players in his MME build in the last edition of this article, pettytheft89 built around a much deeper core. Mass multi-entry is designed to help fantasy owners cover bases but stands are taken by the best players in the world each and every week. Pettytheft89 surprisingly built around almost all chalk and still was able to finish third in the $4.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest by mixing in proper low-owned shots such as Jones and Shepard.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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