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NFL DFS Week 4 GPP Recaps

(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
NFL DFS Week 4 GPP Recaps
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On Sunday’s main slate, Patrick Mahomes (KC), Tom Brady (NE), Matt Ryan (ATL) and Deshaun Watson (HOU) all threw for a combined zero touchdowns (TDs). Consequently, none of these players ended up in any winning lineups from the big contests on either DraftKings or FanDuel this weekend. Instead, most rode a whopping 517 yards passing from Jared Goff (LAR) in a game where the Rams surprisingly ended up playing from behind. Heading into this week, the Buccaneers’ passing defense had allowed 261.0 yards passing per game but that number was deceptively low. Cam Newton (CAR) was battling a Lisfranc foot injury and still threw for 333 yards against the Buccaneers defense in Week 2 and Daniel Jones (NYG) produced four total TDs against them in Week 3. Jameis Winston (TB) came out of the gate with guns blazing which put the Rams in an early 21-0 nothing hole. The Rams closed as 9.0-point favorites which was likely the reason Goff was about four or five percent owned depending on site. Most projected an unfavorable game script with the Rams playing from ahead and yet projecting chaos against a subpar passing defense proved to be the winning strategy.

User “fourdouble” rode a Goff, Cooper Kupp (LAR) and Robert Woods (LAR) double stack to $1,000,000 on DK as those two receivers alone accounted for 285 of Goff’s 517 passing yards. Kupp was the only one of the two to have found the end zone but DK scoring system’s 100-yard bonus negates the need for every player in the lineup to score a TD to take down a major tournament. It should be noted two of the skill position players on this team did not find paydirt and David Johnson (ARI) did not even reach the bonus. However, he did catch a whopping eight passes out of the backfield en route to 99-yards receiving (so he obviously was still productive). There were a few truly interesting aspects to this roster construction beginning with the fact that he ran back the game stack with a 0.7-percent owned Chris Godwin (TB). In previous weeks, Godwin had proven to be ultra-chalk, but his injury status and matchup versus a defense that had allowed zero receiving TDs to this point kept his ownership down in Week 4. Additionally, fourdouble rolled out a receiver in the FLEX, which is the second time this year that has occurred (but the first time it has been noted in this article because there was no GPP Recaps article following Week 2). In retrospect, the matchup improved significantly for Broncos receivers once Jalen Ramsey (JAX) was ruled out, and a 1.3-percent owned Courtland Sutton (DEN) dropped 24.2 fantasy points. Here was fourdouble’s lineup:

In the $1.4M Wildcat on DK, DailyRoto user “TeeJayorTj” took the contest down with the same Goff double-back and Godwin run-back. The entry fee in this contest ($333) was much higher than the Million and there was a 4,671-entry cap as opposed to about 250,000 entries. Obviously, with about two-percent of the total entries, there is going to be a larger margin for error, and TeeJayorTj was able to overcome a 7.4 fantasy point dud. Other than the TB/LAR stack, no two other players came from the same game, they were just strategically placed one-offs essentially. Other than TeeJayorTj, there were plenty of winning rosters in tournaments not included in this article, and it was another winning weekend for the DailyRoto family. Hopefully this is just another week in what is going to be a productive season for both the writers and subscribers!

On FD, user “chris41658” finished as the first “chris” in the contest and just first overall (sorry for the corniness). This is going to sound repetitive but the lineup included the Goff-Woods-Kupp-Godwin quartet. One player whose performance needs to be outlined was Nick Chubb (CLE) in a matchup versus a Ravens defense that had allowed just 60.3 yards rushing per game prior to this week. On the premium podcast this week, I outlined an overlying theme of the GPP Recaps article from a year ago which was running backs (RBs) smashing in perceived tough matchups. Volume outweighs any other factor at the position and Chubb was coming off a game where he had played a season-high 97.2-percent of the team’s offensive snaps (easily a season-best). LeSean McCoy (KC) scored multiple rushing TDs versus this defense in Week 3 and Chubb was likely to see around 20 touches by accident on Sunday. When all said and done, Chubb rushed 20 times for 165 yards and three rushing TD plus he caught 3-4 targets for 18 yards receiving as well. It was difficult to win any tournament without Chubb on Sunday and the volume backs came through for the winners once again.

Speaking of heavy volume, all the fear surrounding Austin Ekeler (LAC) late in the week proved to be unfounded as Melvin Gordon (LAC) returned to play exactly zero snaps. It was extremely optimistic to assume Gordon would end his extensive holdout and get thrown back into the fire and approximately 45-percent of the field in the FD Monster decided Ekeler was worth fading. That was a bad move considering user “twogun” won the $100,000 first prize deploying the Goff-Woods-Godwin stack with the Ekeler-Wayne Gallman (NYG) duo. Most of the other players in this lineup were rather average but that obviously did not matter having the top receiver of the week along with a QB throwing for 500-plus yards and his stack-mate. Of all the winning lineups, this was the only one discussed this week that rolled out a RB/defense (DEF) stack, and the game flow for the Giants proved to be perfect for such a stack. Early on, Gallman scored two TDs to put the Giants up and then the defense was able to get after Case Keenum (WSH) and Dwyane Haskins (WSH). This is how twogun constructed the winning roster:

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “PetrGibbons” was selected due to his success. When all said and done, PetrGibbons most heavily exposed himself to Sammy Watkins (KC) and he ran an extremely spread approach (especially compared to the user who was examined last week). In total, PetrGibbsons had over 30-percent exposure to just three different players whereas last week’s user had four players at over 40-percent ownership. Whereas last week’s focus seemed to lock into chalk that he had faith in, PetrGibbons more heavily built around lower-owned, leverage type plays that he had faith in. Here were the players he had the most exposure to (in order):

  1. Sammy Watkins (44.0-percent)
  2. Kerryon Johnson (30.7-percent)
  3. Phillip Lindsay (30.0-percent)
  4. Kenny Golladay (29.3-percent)
  5. DeAndre Hopkins (26.7-percent)
  6. Leonard Fournette (26.7-percent)
  7. Austin Ekeler (25.3-percent)
  8. Keenan Allen (24.7-percent)
  9. Darren Waller (24.0-percent)
  10. D.J. Moore (24.0-percent)
  11. Curtis Samuel (23.3-percent)
  12. Travis Kelce (22.0-percent)
  13. Evan Engram (20.0-percent)
  14. Chris Carson (18.7-percent)
  15. Will Fuller (16.7-percent)

The noteworthy aspect to his ownership percentages was the heavy spread approach and the heavy commitment made to just one player. Watkins was a player our projections liked but the ownership ended up higher than expected on him (20.8-percent). PetrGibbons sprinkled some chalk into his top ownerships, including both of the high-owned Chargers, but guys like Phillip Lindsay (DEN), DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) and the Carolina receivers were low-owned, intuition plays. There are infinite potential ways to build on a given week and it is interesting to see the contrast between this non-chalky build and last week’s building around chalk pieces. Both strategies proved to be successful.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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