Let Week 5 be a reminder that fading chalk is not always the “smart” play because there are weeks where the highest percentage plays simply come through. Christian McCaffery (CAR), Michael Thomas (NO) and Will Fuller (HOU) happened to be three of the top eight heaviest-owned players in the DraftKings Millionaire this week and Deshaun Watson (HOU) was the highest-owned quarterback (QB). All of those players absolutely smashed and that is before even mentioning players like Chris Godwin (TB) on DraftKings or Adam Thielen (MIN) on FanDuel who also were chalky and featured in many of the top lineups on site. Going contrarian gives you a better shot to differentiate from the field if the chalk ends up failing but sometimes, including this week, you simply have to try and be perfect.
This week, the $1 Million lineup on FD was close to perfect and, amazingly, McCaffery was not even present in the lineup. Instead of running a Watson double-stack, user “gottowin33” only paired deep play threat Fuller with the Texans QB and it paid off huge. Instead of running back the stack with an option on Atlanta, gottowin33 simply jammed chalky plays into a lineup other than Julian Edelman (NE), Aaron Jones (GB) and Eagles Defense. In fact, every single player in his lineup scored at least once including the defense. Unlike many of the lineups analyzed in past weeks, this lineup was not built on overall correlation, but rather pairing the perfect QB-WR stack with bits and pieces from other games. Other than Watson and Fuller, no two other players in the lineup played in the same game other than Zach Ertz (PHI) and the defense (which is not a typical correlation stack). Here is the lineup gottowin33 chose to deploy:
In the $500K Monster on FD, user “fourslot40” ran away with the contest, as he won by a whopping 17 fantasy points. As per usual, the higher stakes contests allowed users a bit more margin for error, as fourslot40 started Evan Engram (NYG) who scored just 7.7 fantasy points and Jordan Howard (PHI) barely cracked double-digits. However, he did manage to squeeze the two top running backs (RBs) of the week into his lineup alongside the nuts Watson-Fuller stack. This user did decide to run-back his stack with a member of the Falcons (Calvin Ridley (ATL) led their receivers in fantasy points) and he correlated McCaffery with the Panthers Defense. This was the lineup to led him to victory:
On DK, Teddy Bridgewater (NO) led user “thechek182” to glory as he offered enough salary relief to fit McCaffery-Jones-Godwin-Fuller alongside a pass-catcher double-stack. Like the other winning lineups, there were very few players with single-digit ownership in this lineup, with Bridgewater (2.7-percent) and Jared Cook (3.6-percent) being the notable ones. The tight end (TE) position proved to be brutal this week as Ertz led the position with 16.70 DK Fantasy points. Cook was priced at just $3,400 and found the end zone which was really all fantasy owners needed for their lineups to be competitive for any top prize. For the second consecutive week, the Godwin run-back won $1 Million on DraftKings, except this week he was chalky (14.8-percent), whereas last week he was under 1.0-percent owned.
Once again, “papagates” took down the DK Wildcat, which was the second time he has taken down this contest already this season and the third time he has been featured in the article overall winning a GPP. It took 318.92 fantasy points to win this contest with a $333 entry fee and he did so without the likes of either Watson or Bridgewater. A 0.5-percent owned Michael Gallup (DAL) was the key to a Cowboys double-stack that also included a 2.4-percent owned Dak Prescott (DAL) and 4.3-percent owned Amari Cooper (DAL). What the Cowboys stack was lacking in QB points it made up for in receiver points as Gallup and Cooper combined for a massive 69.9 fantasy points. TE was not great this week but O.J. Howard (TB) posted a complete dud and papagates still won the contest by 10 fantasy points. This is what papagates’ lineup looked like:
Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “joekali” was selected due to his success. When all said and done, joekali most heavily exposed himself to Christian McCaffery (CAR) and, in stark contrast from “PetrGibbsons” last week, joekali ran an extremely tight approach (with total exposure to just 71 players in 150 entries). In total, joekali had over 30-percent exposure to seven different players different players whereas last week’s user had just three players at over 30-percent exposure. Joekali’s top exposures were strange in the sense that he chose two expensive, chalky RBs to build around and then seemed to prefer two near minimum-priced receivers to complement them. Here were the players he had the most exposure to (in order):
- Christian McCaffery (62.0-percent)
- Ezekiel Elliott (45.3-percent)
- KeeSean Johnson (39.3-percent)
- Auden Tate (36.7-percent)
- Wayne Gallman (36.0-percent)
- Philadelphia Defense (35.3-percent)
- Michael Thomas (32.0-percent)
- Darren Waller (26.0-percent)
- Mark Andrews (24.0-percent)
- Will Fuller (23.3-percent)
- James White (23.3-percent)
- Keenan Allen (22.7-percent)
- Phillip Lindsay (21.3-percent)
- Zach Ertz (20.0-percent)
- Tennessee Defense (20.0-percent)
The noteworthy aspect to his ownership percentages was the extremely tight approach and the heavy commitment to a pair of defenses (which is a new one in this article). Never before has a professional been examined who has had as much conviction to a single defense as joekali did this week. Joekali also showed conviction for some chalky receivers (Thomas/Fuller) and some high-end TEs (Waller/Andrews). This user knew which high-end options he wanted to be exposed to and exactly which receivers he wanted to use to save the necessary salary to fit them. 71 players was a much tigher pool than PetrGibbons’ last week (94 total players) which just shows how many different strategies can be successful. If choosing the correct players in a tight core, it can certainly work, and joekali personified that concept in Week 5.
Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!