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NFL DFS Week 5 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 5 GPP Recaps
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Apparently Robby Anderson was not slowly being phased out of the offense and his ability to take the top off the defense still exists. Despite playing a season-low 51.61-percent of the snaps, Anderson caught two long touchdowns (TDs) on five total targets. For the season, even after his dominant Week 4 performance, Anderson has still been targeted exactly zero times in the red zone and just once in the end zone all season long. Essentially, starting him takes some guts because he has only played almost exactly two-thirds of the snaps and his value comes from long receptions. The top one-percent outcome happened on Sunday this week when the Jets averaged an NFL season-best 8.4 yards per play and Sam Darnold managed 9.0-plus yards per attempt (YPA) for the first time since Week 1. This Anderson performance propelled players on FanDuel specifically to massive paydays.

On Sunday, the Carson Wentz/Zach Ertz game stack propelled a lineup to $1 Million, marking the first time a QB/TE stack has won this flagship contest in 2018. Here is the update:

In Week 1, the Buccaneers stack took down both sites (20 implied points) and in Week 2 the Vikings’ double stack won all the money (23.5 implied points). In Week 3, the game with the highest implied total (over/under of 54 at closing) finally lived up to its billing, and last week the Bears (24.5-implied points) took everything down. This weekend, the Eagles’ QB/TE stack (25.75-implied points) with no Vikings runback propelled a lineup to the top. Being contrarian is one thing but stacking teams with low totals is not proving to be a profitable strategy even from a contrarian angle this year. Onto our NFL DFS GPP Recaps.

Note: “FD” refers to FanDuel and “DK” refers to DraftKings throughout this piece

A person who goes by the username “jimdole” took down FD’s Sunday Million contest by using a single stack (meaning only one skill player alongside the team’s quarterback), making this the second consecutive week in which that strategy won $1 Million. Amazingly, like last week, “jimdole” did not even choose to run the stack back with a Vikings player, but rather decided to just complement the Eagles’ stack with all the top plays. Also, he was able to overcome a total flop from Taywan Taylor because the rest of the roster was so optimal. After game stacks taking down this tournament each of the first three weeks, this now marks back-to-back weeks where a roster only featured two offensive players from the same team. Other than the Eagles, this lineup only included two “players” in the same game as one another: James Conner and the Steelers Defense. This lineup featured a combined ownership of exactly 100-percent which was the lowest combined total of any winner of this contest yet. Maybe the exactly 100-percent ownership was destiny? Here is the lineup that earned him/her top prize:

 

 

 

In the FD Hall of Fame ($300,000 to first), user “tcih6” won with a rather different lineup to the $1 Million lineup:

 

 

The play that stands out here, other than the 1.5-percent owned Anderson, was a 4.0-percent Aaron Rodgers. Although Marquez Valdes-Scantling was 22.0-percent owned, very few decided to use him as part of a Packers team stack, which led to Rodgers becoming a solid leverage play. Furthermore, this lineup chose to use Golladay to run back the game stack, which is a strategy that has won these secondary contests every week (three-plus players from the same game). After the WR in the QB/WR duo from the winning lineup (in the secondary contest analyzed) did not score last week, the winning lineup once again featured a QB/WR TD (which should prove to be the norm over a larger sample size).

On DK, the key to winning $1 Million proved to be vastly different from FD, as the only three common players in the lineups were T.J. Yeldon, Odell Beckham Jr. and James Conner. Not even a single player on user “Slaytations” roster proved to be less than 3.0-percent owned but three of his players ended with under 4.0-percent ownership. He rode the Rodgers/Adams/Valdes-Scantling double-stack to the top without a single member from the Lions. The roster construction was so strong that it did not include a single offensive player under 16.7 points and only his two cheap players scored under 21.1 fantasy points:

 

 

In the DK$1.7M Play Action contest ($100,000 to first), user “Bmiller45”, deployed the same Rodgers/Adams/Valdes-Scantlingstack but mixed in a 0.9-percent owned Kenyan Drake and 2.2-percent owned Willie Snead IV

 

 

A familiar name finished second in this very contest and he happens to work for DailyRoto: Colin Drew. When asked to comment on his strategy and thought process through constructing his lineup, Colin provided the following feedback:

Last week was my biggest week in DFS. While I had grinded out $20,000 scores previously in PGA and qualified for a NHL Live Final, I had never flirted with a six-figure payday. From 4pm until 7pm I was winning more than $100,000 on DraftKings in the $3 20-max with a lineup that would have been leading the Millionaire Maker until Todd Gurley II went HAM, the Cardinals Defense scored a touchdown and Zach Ertz found the endzone with the game just about out of hand. Ultimately that swung me down to $25,000 before a C.J. Beathard garbage time QB sneak drove me back up into 2nd place for $50,000. The same lineup also won the $8 three-max and a $10 150-max GPP I had entered, in total grossing more than $70,000.


I’ve written a lot for subscribers about the merits of stacking in premium articles over the years:

I’ve been calling for people to employ three-man stacking since 2016 and the lineup below did just that, pairing up Packers QB Rodgers with the discount double stack of Davante Adams and Valdes-Scantling and “bringing it back” the other way with Detroit WR Kenny Golladay. This lineup also rotated in some of DailyRoto’s top value backs Conner, Yeldon and Christian McCaffrey, as well as Austin Hooper. With so many people focusing on game stacking the passing attack in Atlanta and Pittsburgh, I was able to grab 3% owned players from one of the highest total games on the slate, and still grab Pittsburgh exposure in Conner and Falcons exposure in Austin Hooper.

 

In total my player exposure aligned very closely with our top values with a couple of notable exceptions.

  • Kenny Golladay. When Marvin Jones was ruled active but injured, I decided to bump the market share of Kenny Golladay vaulting him to one of the top values of the position. I still ended up with a competitive amount of Marvin Jones Jr (13% of entries) but was able to get well overweight on Golladay and Tate.
  • Tyler Lockett. For similar reasons I wanted to grab more exposure to Tyler Lockett than Doug Baldwin, though I played both of them.

I was also able to get big production from low ownership on Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper, and certainly whiffed on a few punt spots like 34% Jeff Heuerman exposure. You can’t win them all.

In fact, if you configured QB – 2 Pass Catcher – Opposing Wide Receiver stacks these results were very optimal. Leveraging our GROUPS feature, I was able to ensure that all my Aaron Rodgers lineups were double stacked knowing that if he threw 3 TDs it was extremely likely that two of MVS, Graham, and Adams would return value on their salaries, as the Packers were missing Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. Similarly, Detroit was likely to generate high performing wide receiver games if they were in a shootout, so all of my Rodgers lineups included Golladay, Marvin Jones or Golden Tate.

    

While it was close to a $100,000+ score, it was still an incredible day. Furthermore, these lineups were lineups that any of our subscribers could have generated. The DailyRoto content team does such a good job of putting together competitive projections that I was able to focus on configuring my groups and lineups so that they told the right story. So many weeks I see people obsessing over projections despite the fact that our team has put dozens of hours from four plus people into them. Instead of obsessing over values, I was able to make a few minor edits take a couple of shots on high-value contrarian spots. After nearly 5 years of grinding DFS those shots finally paid off, and if you stick to your process they can for you too.

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “rikkidee” was selected due to his success. In the millionaire maker, rikkiedee’s top lineup finished 11th and he put in 150 entries. When all said and done, rikkiedee had exposure to 74 total players and he essentially locked the Rodgers/Valdes-Scantling duo; he had 96.7-percent exposure to Rodgers and 91.3-percent exposure to Valdes-Scantling. Last week, the player in focus capped their ownership at 70-percent and the “rikkidee” strategy is by far the boldest examined in this piece so far. This week, rikkidee took a unique/gutsy approach comparatively to those previously focused on in this piece. Here were the players he had the most exposure to:

  1. Aaron Rodgers (96.7-percent)
  2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (91.3-percent)
  3. Davante Adams (61.3-percent)
  4. Travis Kelce (60.0-percent)
  5. Golden Tate (42.7-percent)
  6. Kenny Golladay (42.0-percent)
  7. Melvin Gordon III (39.3-percent)
  8. Saquon Barkley (37.3-percent)
  9. Quincy Enunwa (34.7-percent)
  10. David Johnson (34.0-percent)
  11. Kenny Stills (28.7-percent)
  12. LeSean McCoy (18.7-percent)

The first thing that stands out in his builds is the attention to the Packers/Lions game stack. His top six exposures include five players from that single game. This level of bold had not been analyzed in the piece thus far and shows a player who is willing to let it ride on his strongest opinion(s) of the week. Either he is going to have a week where he finishes with multiple lineups in the money or he is going to totally tank. It is easy to appreciate a strategy like that when it works but it can easily backfire if game flow goes awry or a player gets injured. This week, a lot went right for rikkidee in the game he focused on so he natrually finished quite profitable, with his best entry netting him $7,000. The bottom of his list featued three duds: Enunwa (0 fantasy points), Stills (3.7 fantasy points) and McCoy (12.23 fantasy points). Still, he was able to overcome because he focused on the highest scoring QB of the week and his top two weapons.

Congratulations to all the winners!

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