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NFL DFS Week 6 GPP Recaps

(AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
NFL DFS Week 6 GPP Recaps
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After Week 5 proved to be a chalk smash fest, Week 6 regressed back to the norm a bit, with giant chalk failures such as Malcolm Brown (LAR), Le’Veon Bell (NYJ), Travis Kelce (KC) and Patrick Mahomes (KC). Nearly every player in tournament-winning lineups last week were double-digit percent owned but that was not the case this week. Originality once again took the cake which just shows that one-week samples are never the be-all and end-all. At the end of the first set of games, Kirk Cousins (MIN) stacks looks like they had tournaments all wrapped up and yet Cousins is featured in just one of the lineups going to be discussed in this article. Of course, Stefon Diggs (MIN) who broke out in a big way and caught 7-11 targets for 167 and three touchdowns (TDs), was present in every winning lineup. “It ain’t over until it’s over” never proved truer than today where the afternoon games proved absolutely necessary to win large sums of money in daily fantasy football.

This week, the $1 Million lineup on FD deployed a stack that has not yet been seen in winning lineups this year in any of the contests that have been discussed: a quarterback (QB)-running back (RB) duo. Now, David Johnson (ARI) was a player who the DailyRoto model had projected for a 17.3-percent target market share baseline so he was obviously a back expected to be heavily involved in the passing game. However, even in previous weeks where RBs have caught TDs, they had not been stacked with their QB in any noteworthy winning lineups…until now. The absence of Christian Kirk (ARI) only solidified the receiving floor for Johnson who came into the week with a back injury that proved to be no issue; he touched the ball 18 total times including 12 rushes for 34 yards and a score plus he caught 6-8 targets for 68 yards and a score as well. He also chose to run the stack back with another RB which has also been a rarity in this article. DailyRoto’s own Colin Drew has been known to tilt whether or not to include both backs in a stack and let this be a prime example that such a strategy can hold its weight (especially if both backs are involved in the passing game). Hell, Nick Chubb (CLE) and Chris Carson (SEA) posted massive scores in the same game that looked primed to ship everything if the afternoon games remained quiet as well. Here was user “str8cashhomey84’s” winning lineup:

In the $500K Monster on FD, user “ataros” ran away with the contest, as he won by over 10 fantasy points. As per usual, the higher stakes contests allowed users a bit more margin for error, as ataros started Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) who scored just 9.9 fantasy points and Washington Redskins Defense that scored 15 fewer fantasy points the $1 Million winning Denver Broncos Defense. However, he did manage to squeeze three of the top RBs of the week into his lineup alongside with one of them being part of his Falcons stack (which appeared to assume Freeman as a receiver as opposed to a full onslaught stack). Why? Well, this user did decide to run-back his stack with a member of the Cardinals (Fitzgerald) and, like every other winning lineup this week, he included Diggs. This was the lineup to led him to victory:

On DK, a single-digit owned Carlos Hyde (HOU) proved to be an elite pivot off the chalky Malcolm Brown and helped lead user “Bbcombes” to glory in the $3.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest. The combination of he and Auden Tate (CIN) allowed enough salary relief for the user to fit a Matt Ryan (ATL)/Austin Hooper (ATL) stack alongside workhorse backs and upper mid-tier receivers. Other than Diggs, Terry McLaurin (WAS) proved to be the next highest scoring receiver of the week with Case Keenum (WAS) back under center for the Redskins in a cupcake matchup versus the Dolphins. Although the team deployed a run-heavy scheme (43-percent passes), they relied heavily on their number one receiver when necessary, and it only took four receptions for McLaurin to reach 100 yards with two scores. George Kittle’s (SF) 100-plus yard showing was close enough to Hooper’s output that Bbcombes was still able to overcome the field due to a masterful roster construction:

Strangely, user “tangababy” took down the DK Wildcat with a two-lineup chain, meaning he used the same lineup twice in the contest. Normally, that would be considered a risky strategy, but obviously not when finishing first (which earned him a $350,000 payday from those two lineups alone). His lineup is the only one that included a Kirk Cousins stack and he ran back the proper player on the Eagles: Alshon Jeffery (PHI). In personal builds, Zach Ertz (PHI) ended up in most of my Cousins lineups due to a rule I set, so this one stings to see Jeffery the man to lead the game stack to the top of leaderboards. Anyways, due to the nature of a contest with fewer entries, there also was a larger margin of error here as Tyler Boyd (CIN) caught just three passes for 10 yards. No worries because this is the lineup that won took down the Wildcat:

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “kfade” was selected due to his success (as his top lineup finished 11th in the DK $3.75 Millionaire). When all said and done, kfade most heavily exposed himself to chalk bust Le’Veon Bell and, in stark contrast from “joekali” last week, kfade did not roll with many convictions this week (as he had over 30-percent exposure to just two players). In total, kfade had at least double-digit exposure to 33 different players and was exposed to 111 total players in his 144 lineup build. By comparison, Joekali’s build from last week included just 71 players over 150 total lineups. Kfade’s top exposures were the opposite of strange as he chose to focus heavily on two backs DailyRoto’s model viewed amongst the best values of the week. Here were the players he had the most exposure to (in order):

  1. Le’Veon Bell (47.2-percent)
  2. Leonard Fournette (36.1-percent)
  3. DeAndre Hopkins (28.5-percent)
  4. Chris Carson (27.8-percent)
  5. New York Jets Defense (27.1-percent)
  6. Austin Hooper (24.3-percent)
  7. George Kittle (22.9-percent)
  8. Tyler Lockett (20.8-percent)
  9. Travis Kelce (19.4-percent)
  10. Alvin Kamara (19.4-percent)
  11. Mark Ingram (18.8-percent)
  12. Zach Ertz (17.4-percent)
  13. Dede Westbrook (16.7-percent)
  14. Nick Chubb (16.0-percent)
  15. Deshaun Watson (15.3-percent)

The noteworthy aspect to his ownership percentages was the extremely loose approach especially beyond the top eight. Kfade decided to mostly build around chalk and truly spread his exposure around otherwise and hope to just strike gold in a few lineups. That is exactly what kfade did as his top lineup netted him $12,500 alone. Apparently, Kfade was not concerned about the George Kittle (SF) injury reports, as he basically rolled out both he and Hooper at an indentical number of lineups. With his highest owned player being one of the top busts of the slate, Kfade did awfully well for himself this week spreading out the rest of his build.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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