This will be a weekly series discussing DraftKings Weekly Ownership and Trends (WOAT) in Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments that we can use to better ourselves as DFS players. If pricing were perfectly efficient, some DFS players could beat GPPs on ownership alone. Vince Lombardi once said ownership isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.
Week 6 Look Back
Most weeks I spend many hours more on NFL DFS than I care to admit. However, last week I was busy with life and I probably put in hours more typical of the casual DFS player firing off Sunday lineups. I definitely wasn’t as in tune with the pulse of what would be “chalk” and how lineup construction varied. That said, I think there was a clear lesson to be learned and that was getting a read on how lineup construction of one singular position can dictate where ownership goes as much as the actual value presented. Last week that position was running back where Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, and Lamar Miller were in great spots to perform and carried high $6k to $7k price tags. LeSean McCoy and Miller had massive days while Bell and Murray were serviceable – if not spectacular. Having one or two of these guys ended up being the optimal approach for both GPPs and cash games. But we’re not here to talk about optimals. We’re here to talk ownership!
The thing about these players being so popular was that they immediately drove the wide receiver market. The next batch of highest owned players included names like Cameron Meredith, Tavon Austin, Michael Thomas, Jalaen Strong and a group of $6k receivers like Randall Cobb and Jarvis Landry. Several of these cheap receivers delivered, but if you looked at the wide receiver position in a vacuum, maybe only Meredith would have cracked positional lists. In fact, none of them were in our Top 20 for raw projections. However, guys like Cameron Meredith in Golden Tate were popping into all of our optimal lineups if you just ran projections. Clearly the market had decided that there was a core group of running backs that were too good to fade and this dictated the rest of the lineup decisions and ownership. On this given week it worked and many gamers who went this route were rewarded. But it is worth considering, as we think about popular plays, how it will force people into certain price bands at other positions – and as a result, where we can get unique in roster construction.
Ownership – Key Stacks
With stacking being the most popular GPP strategy, the way people approach stacks is always interesting to me. What are the most popular stacks? Are there sharp and square stacks? Again, leveraging The Fantasy Fanatics we can take a look at in-depth granular ownership data on how people are approaching their stacks…
Are people seriously still not stacking? Are you not stacking? When looking at Sharp vs. Square ownership of the top stacks I noticed that players in the $333 Wildcat are stacking 3.3x more frequently on average then lower stakes counterparts. That ish cray. Some of the most popular tactics utilized by the sharper DFS players includes…