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NFL DFS Week 7 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 7 GPP Recaps
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Week 7 proved to be the week of Aaron Rodgers (GB) as he outscored the next quarterback (QB) by over 14 DraftKings (DK) fantasy points. Not only did Rodgers throw for over 400 yards (429) and five scores but he also was the only Packers play to score a rushing touchdown (TD) as well. When all said and done, Rodgers finished with 46.76 DK fantasy points and 43.76 FanDuel (FD) fantasy points while coming in under 3.0-percent ownership across the industry. In hindsight, the spot was excellent, with the team being implied to score the fourth most points on the main slate at home versus the defense that ranked 26th in passing defense according to Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric. Meanwhile, Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) was one of just two skill position players to find the end zone more than twice and the only one to score a whopping four times. Heading into this week, Jones’ average depth of target (aDOT) was over 4.0 yards higher than teammate Kenny Golladay’s (DET) and yet Golladay had gained 70 more yards and had scored three more TDs. This week, that split regressed back to the mean, and Jones was the one racking up the big plays (and scores). The combination of those two men won $1 million on both sites and came with almost no ownership. Props to those with the guts to roll out such a duo.

The $1 Million lineup on FD ran out Rodgers with a running back (RB)/wide receiver (WR) double-stack which was an extremely risky proposition. Not only had Aaron Jones (GB) played fewer snaps than teammate Jamaal Williams (GB) a week ago but his price had barely moved to account for any uncertainty ($7,600). In order for the QB/RB/WR stack to pay off, the RB either needs to catch a TD or the really team needs to score 40-plus points (or at least the most points on the slate). Well, in this case, both happened as Jones begin the game with a ridiculous catch in the end zone where he was forced to switch the shoulder he was looking over with the ball in the air. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB), the Packers receiver used in this stack, had caught just one pass for 59 yards three and a half quarters before catching a 74-yard score in the fourth to give him 133 yards and a TD on three total targets. Deep threats are worth targeting in tournaments for that very reason; it does not take much opportunity for them to rise to the top of leaderboards when things break right. For the Packers stack, everything broke right this week. The Bengals Defense disappointed in a big way but the rest of the lineup was strong enough for that to not even matter. Here was the winning lineup from user emitnulb:

In the $500K Monster on FD, user “samenole” ran away with the contest, edging out the second-place team by over 17 fantasy points. Last week’s winner (“ataros”) once again finished in the top five. In fact, he finished third, fourth and fifth. Anyways, “samenole” paired the Rodgers/Valdes-Scantling stack with the Darren Waller (OAK) run-back and he also used a pair of receivers on the opposite side of the tilt between the Texans and Colts: T.Y. Hilton (IND) and DeAndre Hopkins (HOU). Additionally, samenole played the RB/defense (D) correlation stack so there was all sorts of potential correlation in this build (even though the Titans defense underwhelmed).  This was the final product:

On DK, the $1 Million dollar hung on by 0.3 fantasy points and was one of the few teams who faded a 48.5-percent owned Leonard Fournette (JAX). Instead, the back user “g0aky” spent on was Dalvin Cook (MIN) and his Packers stack was a single-stack with Rodgers and Jimmy Graham (GB). Josh Jacobs (OAK) ended up being the run-back member of the stack and he rushed 21 times for 124 yards against a Packers defense that ranked 26th in rushing DVOA. Even with the team playing from behind, he was able to crack the 100-yard plateau, which propelled him to a respectable fantasy point total at just $5,000. Like the winner of the FD monster, this lineup used WRs from the same game in Marvin Jones and Stefon Diggs (MIN). By the way, it only took five entries for g0aky to win this contest with almost 412,000 entries:

Once again, “papagates” took down the Wildcat on DK and this time it was on the heels of a Matthew Stafford (DET)/Marvin Jones Jr. (DET)/Stefon Diggs (MIN) game stack. Of the trio, Stafford came in at the highest ownership at 2.6-percent and just three players in the lineup garnered double-digit ownership: Fournette, Waller and the Bills Defense. Otherwise, even RB2 Latavius Murray (NO) with a full workload came in at under 10-percent ownership mostly because he was facing the Bears. Volume once again reigned supreme as he turned 32 total touches into 150 scrimmage yards and two TDs. Papagates was able to survive a 10.1 fantasy point relative dud from Allen as he won the contest by a ridiculous 20-point margin (the largest margin we have seen in any contest covered in this article all year long)! What a smash by this lineup:

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “karlsbergTO” was selected due to his success (as his top lineups finished third and fourth in the DK Millionaire). When all said and done, karlsbergTO most heavily exposed himself to 2.2-percent owned Aaron Rodgers and he simply locked him. The user absolutely slammed the Raiders/Packers game as he built extremely heavily around the pieces of this game. We have yet to analyze a user who went all-in on a single game but that is exactly what karlsbergTO did. Here were the players he was most heavily exposed to (in order):

  1. Aaron Rodgers (100-percent)
  2. Aaron Jones (94-percent)
  3. Darren Waller (53.3-percent)
  4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (52-percent)
  5. Josh Jacobs (43.3-percent)
  6. Jimmy Graham (33.3-percent)
  7. Leonard Fournette (27.3-percent)
  8. Michael Thomas (22.7-percent)
  9. Tyler Boyd (22-percent)
  10. Cooper Kupp (20.7-percent)
  11. Geronimo Allison (19.3-percent)
  12. Derrick Henry (18.7-percent)
  13. Keenan Allen (18.7-percent)
  14. DeAndre Hopkins (18-percent)
  15. Brandin Cooks (17.3-percent)

The obvious noteworthy aspect to his build was his absolute commitment to just one game stack and specifically one QB: Rodgers. In previous articles, not a single user analyzed has been bold enough to go all-in on one game let alone one single QB. KarlsbergTO must have identified what his advantage was on the field and just full-blown played it. Rodgers ended up breaking the slate and KarlsbergTO had 150 combinations of him at 2.2-percent ownership. No wonder this man smashed this week. While this is a risky strategy, and could be disastrous on weeks the locked QB is not a top two scoring player at teh position, the upside here is unmistakable. This user finished with two entries in the top five, four in the top 20, six in the top 50 and 11 in the top 250. This was the definition of a smash week for him.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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