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NFL DFS Week 8 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 8 GPP Recaps
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After the early games had finished, it looked like Cooper Kupp (LAR) lineups were going to be unbeatable. The man caught 7-10 targets for a whopping 220 yards and a score against the Bengals in Wembley Stadium and seemed like he had completely broken the slate. However, the 49ers had yet to take the field against a Panthers defense that had quietly ranked 30th in rushing defense according to Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric. Although they had been stout against the pass, they were taking on a 49ers offense that had averaged the second most rushing yards per game of any team. The combination proved to be lethal for Tevin Coleman (SF) who scored four times against the Panthers including a 40 yarder and two others of at least 10 yards. His 105 rushing yards and four touchdowns (TDs) led to him leading the position in fantasy points, slightly edging out a much chalkier Latavius Murray (NO). Those two backs were the only commonality amongst all the winning lineups covered in this article in Week 8 so it is fair to say pairing them was necessary to ship.

User “nawimsayin” paired the two in the $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire on DK and also added a Daniel Jones (NYG) double-stack and three other receivers who scored multiple times to the mix…and again…not one of them was named Kupp. He also popped by the DailyRoto slack for a quick victory lap.

Nawimsayin rode the trio Mike Evans (TB), Kenny Golladay (DET) and D.K. Metcalf (SEA) trio to the promised land with Golladay being the run-back member of the Giants/Lions game stack. The Lions scored twice before the Giants did but two early long Jones TD passes sped up the pace of the game which led to Stafford still having to throw throughout. Luckily for anyone who stacked this game, including nawimsayin, the competitive nature of the game led to two second-half Golladay scores (a week after Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) was the player on the receiving end of all the TDs for this very team). Golladay’s final line, 6-123-2, marked the third time this year a receiver has scored multiple TDs versus the Giants and they already ranked 27th in passing DVOA. Here was the winning lineup:

In the DK $1.2M Wildcat, user “reztes757” shipped the contest by nearly 20 fantasy points. This one was not even close as reztes rode a Jones-Saquon Barkley (NYG) stack that also included a 2.6-percent owned Coleman, 11.4-percent owned Evans and 7.9-percent owned Metcalf. As is the case every week, there is a bit more room for error in higher stakes contests as reztes757 was able to sustain a 6.2 fantasy point performance from Cameron Brate (TB) and a mediocre outing from the Rams Defense. Single-stacking a workhorse back with a quarterback (QB) is not a construction that had won any of the tournaments analyzed this season up until this point which one again personifies how many potential ways there are to win (if the strategy is deployed properly):

If the DK Wildcat lineup was the first lineup that had been analyzed with a QB-RB single-stack, the $1 Million lineup on FD is the second as the Gardner Minshew (JAX)/Leonard Fournette (JAX) stack partially propelled user “k2boarder54” to the top. Furthermore, this user stacked the QB/RB duo with the team’s defense (which is also a new one). According to FantasyLabs’ correlation tool, a team’s QB has very minimally positively correlated with his their own team’s defense this year and yet this was one of the few scenarios in which this configuration worked out. K2boarder54 also had to overcome a mediocre TE performance to beat 300,230 other users but, to be fair, the position was brutal this week (with only five players at the position finding the end zone on the slate: Ryan Griffin (NYJ), Darren Fells (HOU), Jonnu Smith (TEN), Austin Hooper (ATL) and Evan Engram (NYG)). This was the final product:

In the $1.2M Mega Monster on FD, user “acaru” barely edged out the competition with the same Minshew/Fournette stack but his Jaguars stack also included D.J. Chark (JAX). This constituted one of the more common stacks that has been identified in this article which is a double-stack with QB, pass-catching back and another receiver. Like the $1 Million winner, acaru did not run the stack back with any Jets, and he rolled out the Patriots Defense (who once again scored the most fantasy points of any defense this week). Notably, acaru was also not scared of pairing Murray with Michael Thomas (NO), who both play for the same team, and Minshew’s cheap price tag helped allow this user to pair the expensive Thomas/Hopkins duo together with backs that smashed:

DailyRoto’s tools smashed this week as many subscribers in slack chat were successful enough to post massive screenshots. That is typically the case at the end of a NFL weekend but, this week, I was fortunate enough to be one of those people. As per usual, I used DailyRoto’s optimizer to crank out 150 lineups and put them in FantasyDraft’s $350,000 Hooters Main Event contest and my best lineup finished third. My build was close to a lock button on Latavius Murray and I was over the field on Daniel Jones, Fournette and Chark as well. I was fortunate enough to have the stars align with a limited share of Evans/Patriots D but they both happened to pop into my best lineup. When the smoked cleared, this lineup won me $25,000:

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “wakeywakey” was selected due to his success (as his top lineup finished 62nd in the Millionaire and there were a surprising amount of entries towards the top from users who only played a handful of lineups). When all said and done, wakeywakey most heavily exposed himself to chalk Latavius Murray and he simply locked him. Last week, the user analzyed in this article locked a 2.2-percent owned Aaron Rodgers (GB) and this week the user locked a chalky option (so they were very different approaches). The user absolutely slammed the Saints and Lions stacks and he appeared to just go heavy on the team stacks he liked. Here were the players he was most heavily exposed to (in order):

  1. Latavius Murray (100-percent)
  2. Kenny Golladay (41.3-percent)
  3. Matthew Stafford (38.7-percent)
  4. Michael Thomas (35.3-percent)
  5. Drew Brees (34.0-percent)
  6. Chris Carson (30.7-percent)
  7. Jacksonville Defense (29.3-percent)
  8. Russell Wilson (27.3-percent)
  9. Mike Evans (26.7-percent)
  10. Dede Westbrook (26.7-percent)
  11. Darren Waller (25.3-percent)
  12. Mike Williams (25.3-percent)
  13. Nick Chubb (25.3-percent)
  14. Evan Engram (24.0-percent)
  15. Hunter Henry (23.3-percent)

The obvious noteworthy aspect to his build was commitments to certain offenses as opposed to one single player. Instead of building around sporadic plays he had identified as strong plays individually, wakeywakey seemed to identify stacks that he wanted to hammer. There was obviously a cheap defense he preferred as well and he added that heavily to the mix. There were some landmines in his build and he still managed to have his top lineup finish in the top 65. Nice work, wakeywakey.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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