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NFL DFS Week 8 GPP Recaps

(AP Photo/Don Wright)
NFL DFS Week 8 GPP Recaps
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On Sunday, the DailyRoto optimizer was all over a Rams onslaught with Todd Gurley II rating as our top overall value, Jared Goff rating as a top three overall quarterback (QB) value and two of the Rams receivers rating in the top eight of our wide receiver (WR) values on DraftKings. When the smoke cleared, a Goff/Gurley/Josh Reynolds Rams double stack ended up winning $1 Million in a lineup that included the chalkiest running back (RB) of the week (James Conner) and the chalkiest defense of the week (Steeleers D/ST) as well. All it took was a few tweaks from logical cash game lineup constructions to take everything down…

Note: “FD” refers to FanDuel and “DK” refers to DraftKings throughout this piece

A person who goes by the username “LolololoLola” figured out all the optimal pivots and rode a foursome of low-owned receivers all the way to the top. Amazingly, “LolololoLola” played just two entries in the Roman Fantasy Football Millionaire contest and within those entries she simply locked Steelers D/ST, Gurley II and Mike Evans. Since Evans was just 7.3-percent owned, that gave user LolololoLola a 92.7-percent leverage on the field! LolololoLola utilized both a double Rams stack and the RB/defense stack of the Steelers. The combined ownership percentages of the WRs rostered in this lineup was 18.4-percent or about half a percentage less owned than A.J. Green alone. Sammy Watkins, Larry Fitzgerald and Reynolds all out-performed their previous season best by at least 11 fantasy points with Fitzgerald and Reynolds more than doubling their previous season-high fantasy totals. Yet again, it was not the team that faded the chalk that won one of the biggest tournaments across the industry, but rather someone who chose the correct chalk (four plays with over 19.5-percent ownership in total) paired with the proper contrarian plays.

In the DK $1.2M Wildcat ($200,000 to first), user “Artino11” won with a somewhat similar lineup to the $1 Million lineup:

The amazing part is Artino11 was able to withstand the 12.84 fantasy point flop from Jameis Winston who has benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick in the second half. Fitzpatrick managed to score more fantasy points than Winston and he was actually the player who catapulted Evans to fantasy relevance as well which was huge for Artino11 (who rostered him as well). Evans caught three passes for 111 yards and a score from Fitzpatrick alone which was obviously a huge chunk of his six reception, 179-yard, one score performance overall. Like the aforementioned LolololoLola, Artino11 only used two lineups in this contest, except he did not use 100-percent of any player. He rolled out two completely different rosters and one ended up hitting. It is interesting to see the contrast in styles between two users who had serious success this week despite not relying on mass-multi entry.

On the other hand, the key to winning the Sunday Million on FD proved to be a completely different lineup, with the touchdown-heavy nature of the website rearing its head. User “deja_vu1804” deployed a Derek Carr/Jared Cook stack and suffered through an incredibly tilting first half with this stack as the team only ran 16 plays before halftime. Even with the lack of plays, one of them was a 25-yard touchdown (TD) to Cook, and deja_vu1804 correctly ended up fading the entire Raiders receiving core who all struggled. In a game that had my full attention heading into the weekend, although I was admittedly on the wrong side of the game stack, Carr finished with 244 yards passing to go along with three passing TDs, one rushing TD and a hefty 27.76 fantasy points at just $6,900. Jordan Howard interestingly showed up in the $500,000 lineup and this is 100-percent a site-specific play and a prime example of why fantasy owners need to know their scoring system. Howard finished with 81 yards and a rushing score, which would have been a disaster on DK due to the lack of receptions, but proved to be a usable score on FanDuel because he found paydirt:

In the FD Monster, user “jschaeun88” rode a naked Mitchell Trubisky to victory paired with most of the players already discussed in the article…other than Jack Doyle, Jermaine Kearse and Phillip Lindsay. Although Lindsay played a lower percentage of snaps this week (56.2-percent) compared to last week (59.3-percent), he was one of the most heavily-owned players of the week due to the absence of Royce Freeman.  Doyle came back and almost completely phased Eric Ebron out of the offense; Ebron played just 17-of-78 snaps and ran just 13 routes on 31 Luck dropbacks, per Adam Levitan on Twitter. While DailyRoto had the split of opportunity projected the other way, jschaeun88 correct guessed Ebron’s recent success was not enough to keep Doyle off the field. Kearse interestingly was 18.9-percent owned in the monster and he actually was targeted 10-times for the second time in three weeks although he only caught three of those targets for 30 yards.  On Sunday, even with Kearse in the lineup, jshaeun88 found the magic recipe of pairing Mixon/Conner/Evans with a solid quarterback, which seemed to win everything:

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specificl pro approached the week, and this week “Awesemo” was selected due to his success (on a week where pros were not overly successful and the top of the leaderboard was littered with people who made 10 or less lineups). In the millionaire maker, Awesemo’s top lineup finished 182nd and he put in 150 entries. When all said and done, Mallen21 did not have more than 53.3-percent exposure to any player he used, with Pittsburgh D/ST topping the list. In his build, he had exposure to 106 total players, with only two players over 50-percent exposure. Here were the players he had the most exposure to:

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST (53.3-percent)
  2. Phillip Lindsay (51.3-percent)
  3. Martavis Bryant (34.7-percent)
  4. Antonio Brown (29.3-percent)
  5. Brandin Cooks (28.7-percent)
  6. Travis Kelce (27.3-percent)
  7. Robert Woods (26.7-percent)
  8. James Conner (26.0-percent)
  9. Jimmy Graham (25.3-percent)
  10. A.J. Green (24.0-percent)
  11. Golden Tate (20.0-percent)
  12. Joe Mixon (20.0-percent)
  13. Aaron Rodgers (20.0-percent)

The first thing that stands out in his builds is the number of total flops in the top 10 beginning with Bryant. If Bryant were to have performed at even an average level this week, Awesemo would have enjoyed significantly more success, although he was able to avoid him in his top lineup. Awesemo also hedged his Lindsay investment with shares of Devontae Booker (0.5-percent owned overall, 10.7-percent owned by Awesemo) and, low and behold, Booker ended up on his highest-scoring team (likely because he was a substitute for Bryant as a punt). Luckily, his defense came through for their price and he was  heavily invested in guys like Brown and Conner who both scored multiple TDs.

Congratulations to all the winners!

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