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NFL DFS Week 9 GPP Recaps

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NFL DFS Week 9 GPP Recaps
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DailyRoto’s DK optimals were flooded with Russell Wilson (SEA) this week and it turns out they were onto something; Wilson was in every single winning lineup that will be featured in this week’s article. On both sites, it is impossible to find a tournament where Wilson was not in the winning lineup as he completed 29-43 passes for 378 yards and a whopping five touchdowns (TDs) plus he ran for 21 yards as well. Heading into this week, the Buccaneers’ defense ranked first in rushing defense according to Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric, and Carson had a difficult time running outside of a 66-yard scamper. That led to the offense funneling to the pass and Wilson attempting the second most passes he has in any game this season. His massive game was the story of the weekend and led to some monstrous paydays across the industry.

On DraftKings (DK), user “Richarzard” rode a Wilson-Tyler Lockett (SEA) single-stack to the promised land despite the fact Wilson threw three other TDs to players not named Lockett. Amazingly, after Mike Evans’ (TB) 45.8 DK fantasy points propelled him into all winning lineups last week, he still ended up as the way lower-owned Buccaneers receiver: 13.0-percent compared to 21.6-percent ownership for Chris Godwin (TB). Richarzard was also the only user to be discussed in this piece who faded Zach Ertz’s (PHI) massive game, but to be fair, Noah Fant (DEN) finished within five fantasy points of him at nearly $2,000 cheaper. Other than the Seattle stack with Evans run-back, the only other correlation Richarzard deployed was the ultra-chalky Jaylen Samuels (PIT) paired with the Steelers Defense. Colts quarterback (QB) Jacoby Brissett (IND) had only throw three interceptions prior to his week but he left early in the game with an ankle injury. In came Brian Hoyer (IND) and it did not take long for him to throw a pick-six. When the smoke cleared, this is what Richarzard’s lineup looked like:

In the $1M Wildcat, “lazgetsfit” also got rich with Wilson but he deployed a double-stack with no Evan run-back. As per usual, there was more margin for error in a higher stakes tournament with fewer entries, so Evans was not necessary for the bink. However, every single player in lazgetsfit’s lineup produced at least 15.7 fantasy points and all but one managed at least 19 fantasy points. Ertz, who was the coverboy for this week’s Sanders Stacks article, saw his price dip to $4,700 on DK and showcased why it was the perfect time to buy low on him; he was targeted a team-high 11 times and caught nine of those passes for 103 yards and a score. Only five defenses had allowed more fantasy points per game to the tight end (TE) position prior to this week, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), so that is a trend to monitor moving forward. Here was the winning lineup:

On FanDuel (FD), the Wilson-Lockett-Wilson single-stack propelled user “tbwalleye” to $300,000 and he faded a 40.1-percent owned Samuels. To be fair, Samuels’ pass-catching ability was more conducive to the DK format, but he still gained 0.5 points per reception on FD and totaled a ridiculous 13 receptions. The Christian McCaffery (CAR)-Panthers Defense stack was utilized in this lineup and, while the Panthers did not score a TD, they forced three turnovers and sacked Ryan Tannehill (TEN) thrice. The wide receiver (WR) in the utility is always a bit contrarian on FD and Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) was a good choice as he once again topped 100 yards and capped the day off with a TD:

In the $450K Monster, “pocketkings” was able to overcome relative duds from Mike Williams (LAC) and Nick Chubb (CLE)Preston Williams (MIA) was present in the FD Million winning lineup as well but he was much higher owned in this high stakes contest (7.7-percent) than he was in the Million (4.5-percent):

Huge congratulations to DailyRoto’s Drew Dinkmeyer as he won the FD $222K NFL Kickoff with the Wilson-Lockett-Evans game stack to go along with Fant and three of the weekend’s best running backs (RBs). Out of the eight position players in his lineup, exactly one ranked outside the top seven values at their position on our optimizer, and that was Josh Jacobs (OAK) who ranked eighth.

Oh, by the way, I had another nice finish this week using the DailyRoto tools as well. 🙂

(Seriously, the tools are the best)

Pro Spotlight

Each week, this article will take a look at how a specific successful pro approached the week, and this week “soobv” was selected due to his success (as his top lineup finished sixth in the Millionaire). When all said and done, soob most heavily exposed himself to chalk Latavius Murray and he simply locked him. Last week, the user analzyed in this article locked in a chalky Latavius Murray (NO) and this week soobv also locked in the chalky, cheap back of the week: Samuels. This week’s user took a bold stance on five separate players as he finished with over 40-percent exposure to each. It should be noted soobv only rolled out 123 entries this week and every other user analyzed in this article had rolled out 150 total (so this week is a bit different). Here were the players he was most heavily exposed to (in order):

  1. Jaylen Samuels (100-percent)
  2. Buffalo Defense (62.6-percent)
  3. Keenan Allen (48.8-percent)
  4. Nick Chubb (45.5-percent)
  5. Zach Ertz (42.3-percent)
  6. Le’Veon Bell (34.1-percent)
  7. Chris Godwin (33.3-percent)
  8. Cleveland Defense (32.5-percent)
  9. Preston Williams (32.5-percent)
  10. Philip Rivers (31.7-percent)
  11. Aaron Jones (27.6-percent)
  12. DeVante Parker (25.2-percent)
  13. D.J. Moore (24.4-percent)
  14. Curtis Samuel (23.6-percent)
  15. Dalvin Cook (21.9-percent)

The obvious noteworthy aspect to his build was commitments to certain underwhelming options like the Buffalo Defense, Allen, Chubb and the Browns Defense (who finished with just five fantasy points). Despite those heavy positions, he still fell into a Wilson-Lockett-Metcalf-Evans double-stack that propelled his entire week. The beautiful thing about mass multi-entry is all you need is one lineup, and despite some poor stances, one lineup can net you $15,000 on a $20 entry! Nice work, soobv.

Congratulations to all the winners and better luck to all who did not win a million dollars next week!

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