NFL DFS WR Strategy: Spotting Target Trends
The below is an example of a strategy article from the 2015-16 NFL Season. Look for more of these each week this season for premium subscribers…
We always preach that the best way to have success in NFL DFS is projecting volume, particularly among the skill players. For example, in last week’s strategy article on WR Predictability the correlation between WR FanDuel production and targets, on a game by game basis, was four times stronger than the correlation between WR FanDuel production and strength of matchup. When we’re talking about volume, we are talking about volume in three key areas: targets, carries, and red zone opportunities. One of the keys in being ahead of the curve when it comes to projecting volume is to be able to spot trends. If we can identify shifts in volume early on, we have a good shot of 1) identifying strong DFS players before our opponents do 2) acting on this information before site salaries take it into account 3) avoid mistaking risky options for safe options. In this week’s strategy article, we’ll try to spot some volume trends among wide receivers by comparing Weeks 1-3 average targets with Weeks 4-6 average targets. In future weeks, we’ll repeat the exercise using carries and red zone opportunities.
Targets – Wide Receivers
Weeks 1-3 Average Target Leaders
*Delta represents the change in targets from Weeks 1-3 to Weeks 4-6