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NFL DFS WR Strategy: WR Predictability on the Basis of Matchup Strength
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NFL DFS WR Strategy: WR Predictability on the Basis of Matchup Strength

The below is an example of a strategy article from the 2015-16 NFL Season. Look for more of these each week this season for premium subscribers…

One of the problems I have the most trouble trying to solve when putting together the weekly NFL DFS puzzle is mixing micro analysis with macro analysis. Since I’m a spreadsheet guy at heart, it’s easiest for me to try and project volume for a player, apply that volume to the player’s efficiency and then make an adjustment for the strength of the defense. That process makes a lot of sense to me and is very useful. For me, that’s the micro analysis for every week. I can do a pretty good job of pinning down whether a player is over or underpriced by putting together that information, which at times is easier said than done (volume can shift based on personnel, changing player roles, team pace, etc. while defensive adjustments aren’t always straightforward). Where I tend to struggle is meshing this sort of analysis with broader, systemic truths about players or teams.

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