NFL GPP Week 11 Recap: Building Bank Rawls
What do Cam Newton and Thomas Rawls have in common? They’re both animals. It was slim pickings this week in NFL DFS and if you missed, you probably missed big time. If you hit, you were one of the only ones, so enjoy all of the money. Just thought I should note how important it is for premium subscribers to read their DailyRoto Lineup Alerts as they come across. If you had done so, you would’ve caught this nugget in Lineup Alert #3:
“LINEUP ALERT #3: SEA – Marshawn Lynch is INACTIVE. Thomas Rawls emerges as a very strong value. Comparable with Charcandrick West. If you’re playing through injuries on DraftKings or a slow start, it makes sense to pivot to Rawls and hope your competition does not and West fails.”
Here are the guys that were really good this week.
|Cam Newton||5PaTD, 246 PaYds, 16RuYds||31.44||31.44|
|Thomas Rawls||1 RuTd, 209RuYds, 1RecTd, 3Rec, 46RecYds||43.5||39|
|DeAndre Hopkins||2RecTd, 118 RecYds, 5Rec||31.8||26.3|
|Julio Jones||160RecYds, 9Rec||28||20.5|
$2.5 Million NFL Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $300,000 to First Place
Team: Russell Wilson, Thomas Rawls, Latavius Murray, Danny Amendola, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Greg Olsen, Graham Gano, Houston Texans
$12M WFFC MEGAQ, $5,200 Entry, Ticket to Top 7
Team: Carson Palmer, Charcandrick West, Darren McFadden, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald, Martellus Bennett, Matt Prater, Tampa Bay Bucs
$400K Sunday Monster, $300 Entry, $80,000 to First Place
Team: Cam Newton, Lesean McCoy, Lamar Miller, Danny Amendola, DeSean Jackson, Julio Jones, Greg Olsen, Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears
Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1 Million to First Place
Team: Cam Newton, Thomas Rawls, Charcandrick West, Danny Amendola, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Greg Olsen, LeSean McCoy, Chiefs
$15 Million Fantasy Football World Championships Q (Primtime), $1,000 Entry, $1,000 + Ticket to First
Team: Carson Palmer, Giovani Bernard, LeSean McCoy, Danny Amendola, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon LaFell, Tyler Eifert, AJ Green, Cardinals
$550K Blitz, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First Place
Team: Cam Newton, Darren McFadden, Thomas Rawls, Danny Amendola, Larry Fitzgerald, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Olsen, DeMarco Murray, Panthers
So What Happened This Weekend?
Womp. Womp. Womp. What else can I say about the way this week played out? Last week I spoke at length about featuring running backs that earned considerable volume, setting aside matchup. It set up perfectly for Charcandrick West this week given his matchup with the San Diego Chargers but he and Devonta Freeman, along with a long list of other players were injured, deeming most of our lineups dead on the spot.
It won’t help to show you a table of how many fantasy points they earned relative to their salaries. It won’t help to talk about how many fantasy points they WOULD HAVE earned had they been in the game. All that matters is that by escaping all of the injuries around the league, you at least gave yourself a chance in tournaments. I’ll touch a bit on this in the next section as well as I take a deeper look at one of the players who made the most of an injury.
Who Made The Difference?
This section is more or less specifically aimed towards DraftKings tournaments, although, the winning lineup in the FD Sunday Million did contain Thomas Rawls. Rawls is everything that we’ve always wanted in a situation. He was a cheap, value running back, that was filling in for an injured Marshawn Lynch. He was expected to receive plenty of volume and be utilized out of the backfield in the passing game. It’s a plus that his matchup with San Francisco was so great.
There was one problem this week. No one knew Rawls was going to start until after lineup lock. This meant decision time for DraftKings lineups, as FD’s lock wouldn’t have allowed anyone to alter a lineup to include Rawls.
So let’s make up a scenario. You are in “decent” shape through the beginning of the early games in a tournament on DraftKings. You have Charcandrick West in your lineup, yet to play and a few other players that haven’t kicked off yet. You think there is a chance that your lineup could make a splash. What do you do?
This is a perfect time to institute a little bit of game theory. If we know that lineups ahead of us have Charcandrick West (which we should assume given his expected immense ownership level) then we have no way of leaping over those lineups unless we swap to a different player. Boom. Insert Rawls.
There was no way of knowing that Rawls would explode and West wouldn’t (thanks to injury), but logically, it was the correct move, giving you the best chance to win.
If you made the move, congrats. If not, sorry Charlie.
DK Points / Own%/ Salary
FD Points/ Own%/ Salary
|Thomas Rawls||43.5, 1.6% , $3800||39, 0.1% , $5,600|
Take a look at that line. Wooooo. What a performance by the Central Michigan product (I like to show off because I know a lot about where athletes went to college).
The biggest shock to me is that Rawls was only 1.6% owned in the Millionaire Maker despite the news before his game locked. But hey, not all of us got a B+ in Game Theory (it wasn’t really that impressive, it was a pretty easy class).
To Gronk or Not To Gronk…
Break out your sad face emojis. GRONK DIDN’T EVEN GET HURT. I’m not going to keep you suspended like I do most weeks. You know by now that Gronk was definitely not worth it. The allure is always there with Gronk given his immense upside and this week even more with a Monday night matchup where you were able to grab some late sweat.
Nothing has changed here this season, as most often, it’s been the case that you didn’t want to Gronk. He’s consistently not paid off his price tag despite his elite talent, and the discrepancy in pricing between him and the others at his position doesn’t warrant selecting him. I don’t even want to put the table up with fantasy points to have you sulk at his sobering performance, it was bad.
But at the tight end position this week, it really didn’t go well.
Here are a list of some of the options that did pan out at tight end.
Sorry, I had to throw Ebron in there. What a disaster at tight end this week. Gronk, Ertz, Ebron, Antonio Gates…ew. Nothing worked, unless of course, you rostered Eifert or Olsen.
Below I’ve once again gone through the quarterbacks used in the top 20 lineups of both of the major tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Sunday Million, FanDuel : FIVE different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. TWO less quarterbacks than last week –Cam Newton,Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston. Difference in highest and lowest score = 11.06 (Cam Newton – Matt Stafford).
Millionaire Maker, DraftKings: FIVE quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. FOUR less quarterbacks used than last week: Cam Newton,Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston. Difference in highest and lowest score = 11.06 (Cam Newton – Matt Stafford).
Notice anything different about this week? Um, all of the quarterbacks in the top twenty in each of the two major games were the exact same! This makes sense this week though, as just about nothing went right in any NFL games and the only top performers were the ones listed. Cam threw for five TDs, Jameis threw for five TDs and that was just about all that happened at the quarterback position.
Keep in mind, that DraftKings uses a three point bonus for quarterbacks that throw for over 300 yards. Typically, those that are near the top of the leaderboard are ones that have eclipsed this mark, slightly inflating the difference between the top and bottom, and also the difference in point total from DraftKings to FanDuel.
Congratulations to all the winners from this week, and to the losers, sorry!