NFL GPP Week 13 Recap: Here’s to You, Mr. Robinson
I’m sure by now you’ve come to understand that a lot about winning in DFS is by rostering together as many touchdowns as you can. It’s why we love Dez (not current Dez) and Eric Decker, and it’s why you would have loved me when I played JV Football. I was the quarterback. I rolled out a lot and made throws on the run (mainly because I couldn’t see over the line after a three step drop). And occasionally, I threw touchdowns. Hell, I even ran a few in. So, when you take a glance at the top-performers table, imagine my name there, and just how many fantasy points I would have had at far too low of an ownership percentage. If I know one thing, it’s that 5’7” junior varsity quarterbacks are great GPP plays.
|Player||Stats||DK Points||FD Points|
|Antonio Brown||3TotalTd, 8Rec, 118RecYds||40.8||33.8|
|Brandon Marshall||1RecTd, 12Rec, 131 RecYds||34.1||25.1|
|Allen Robinson||3RecTd, 153RecYds, 10Rec||46.3||38.3|
|Javorius “Buck” Allen||1RecTd, 107RecYds, 63RuYds, 12Rec||38||29|
$2 Million NFL Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $200,000 to First Place
Team: Ben Roethlisberger, Javorius Allen, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Allen Robinson, Delanie Walker, Dan Bailey, Chiefs
$12M WFFC Mega Q, $5,200 Entry, WFFC Ticket to Top 5
Team: Ben Roethlisberger, Shaun Draughn, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, Delanie Walker, Robbie Gould, Tennessee Titans
$500K Sunday Monster, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First Place
Team: Cam Newton, Javorius Allen, Shaun Draughn, Allen Robinson, Antonio Brown, Tedd Ginn Jr, Greg Olsen, Chris Boswell, Chicago Bears
Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1 Million to First Place
Team: Ben Roethlisberger, Javorius Allen, DeAngelo Williams, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Scott Chandler, Allen Robinson, Steelers
$15 Million Fantasy Football World Championships Q, $1,000 Entry, $1,000 + Ticket to First
Team: Marcus Mariota, Shaun Draughn, DeAngelo Williams, Odell Beckham JR, Antonio Brown, Allen Robinson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jeremy Maclin, Redskins
$550K Blitz, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First Place
Team: Ben Roethlisberger, David Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Odell Beckham JR, Antonio Brown, Allen Robinson, Scott Chandler, Danny Amendola, Dolphins
So What Happened This Weekend?
In recent weeks I’ve spent time discussing whether or not the “chalk” was the right move. Did the players with mass public appeal perform better or worse than expected? Recently, it’s been worse, and being contrarian was the perfect way to win yourself a tournament. This week however, everyone was awesome. It didn’t matter if you were trying to build a completely oddball lineup, or if you were strictly adhering to the chalk – everyone went off. As a result, scores around the industry were way up, and there was a wide range of player ownership in the winning lineups. You’ll undoubtedly notice some names are featured in most of the winning lineups, but it wasn’t a difficult week to build a successful lineup.
Who Made The Difference?
As I mentioned above, there wasn’t one particular standout player that you had to have to win this week (although Allen Robinson made a strong case for it). However, there was a group of players that were commonly featured at the top of leaderboards that hovered around a range of ownership levels fitting for GPP teams. None of these guys were super low owned, but at the same time, none of them reached into a range of ownership that made you consider fading them from a game theory perspective. You already know how they performed thanks to the top-performers table, but I wanted you to see just how their ownership data affected leaderboards.
See? It’s not that no one owned them, it’s merely that not enough did. The ownership percentages on both sites seems to indicate that there weren’t any major holes in pricing influencing how frequently they were used, but merely other values were attacked. If there was a DFS term for being publicly contrarian, it would be te right way to describe this week.
I was forced to eliminate the Gronk section for this week, as Gronk familiarly found himself on the inactive list, and we were forced to look elsewhere. However, one thing that caught my eye when scrolling through the ownership data and leaderboards was the crazy wide range of defenses that was used. I’ve mentioned before, less frequently than I should have, that using an off the board defense is a great way to differentiate yourself in tournaments. You could make a case that the defense has a small spectrum of potential scores, like the quarterback, but I’d argue that there isn’t a true middle ground with defenses. Quarterbacks can have a mediocre performance, and it doesn’t derail your chances, as most likely the top quarterback isn’t going to separate from the pack by too many points. With defenses, taking advantage of a 20 point swing, at less than 5% ownership, is very advantageous.
As I typically do, I’ve created another table to display some defensive data from near the top of leaderboards this week.
FD Own % / Points
DK Own % / Points
|Chiefs||2.4% / 17||2.2% / 17|
|Steelers||2.3% / 21||2.6 % / 21|
|Broncos||3.6% / 23||5% / 23|
|Dolphins||5.5% / 17||6.9% / 17|
Now the strength of my argument isn’t particularly strong looking at only this week’s data, because so many defenses were above average in scoring this week. There were really only a few defenses you could have used that put you in a large hole. However, on a normal week, most defenses are flirting with six or seven fantasy points, as opposed to 17-20. It’s a great way to move yourself away from the field at a given position, and potentially swing things in your favor.
Below I’ve once again gone through the quarterbacks used in the top 20 lineups of both of the major tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Sunday Million, FanDuel : FOUR different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. ONE MORE quarterback than last week – Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles. Difference in highest and lowest score = 4.36 (Newton-Bortles)
Millionaire Maker, DraftKings: SIX quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. SAME AMOUNT of quarterbacks used as last week: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blake Bortles, Tom Brady, Marcus Mariota. Difference in highest and lowest score = 12.12 (Mariota – Fitzpatrick)
How many times is Ryan Fitzpatrick going to show up in this section? That dude might honestly be the most commonly used quarterback in the top 20 lineups all season long (I’ll do some digging on this for next week). If anything, Fitzpatrick’s frequent inclusion just points to what I’ve been saying all year long – the quarterback is not the most important position in GPPs. It’s important that we allow the data to mold how we construct lineups, to put us in a better position to win week to week. And in this case, the data is telling us that quarterback is not where we should be stressing.
Keep in mind, that DraftKings uses a three point bonus for quarterbacks that throw for over 300 yards. Typically, those that are near the top of the leaderboard are ones that have eclipsed this mark, slightly inflating the difference between the top and bottom, and also the difference in point total from DraftKings to FanDuel.
Congratulations to all the winners from this week, and to the losers, sorry!