NFL GPP Week 14 Recap: Teach Me How to Dougie
If you watched Monday Night Football, or have watched any football in the last two seasons (hopefully, since you’re reading this) you’re well aware of the level of awesomeness attached to Odell Beckham Jr – or OBJ, ODB, the best dude/other nicknames. He’s dominated the league and dominated NFL DFS from day one. This is a tribute to him, and his incredibly ability to make us all happy and win us money.
(I wanted to start this piece with an awesome video of Odell doing cool stuff, but the NFL won’t allow it. So instead, I defaulted to Odell catching Peanut M&M’s from Cooper Manning. It’s not great, but, it’s the best I could do. )
|Player||Stats||DK Points||FD Points|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||166RecYds, 2RecTd, 7Rec||38.6||32.1|
|Doug Baldwin||82RecYds, 6Rec, 3RecTds||32.2||29.2|
|Russell Wilson||292PaYds, 6RuYds, 5PaTDs||32.28||32.28|
|Todd Gurley||7RecYds, 1Rec, 2RuTds, 140RuYds||30.7||27.2|
$1.75 Million NFL Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $175,000 to First Place
Team: Russell Wilson, Lamar Miller, Tim Hightower, Odell Beckham Jr, Doug Baldwin, Brandon Marshall, Jordan Reed, Graham Gano, Carolina Panthers
$12M WFFC , Ticket Entry, $3,000,000 to First Place (LINK TO RESULTS HERE)
Team: Blake Bortles, Todd Gurley, Eddie Lacy, AJ Green, Allen Hurns, Alshon Jeffrey, Delanie Walker, Mason Crosby. Kansas City Chiefs
$500K Sunday Monster, $300 Entry, $100,000 to First Place
Team: Blake Bortles, Lamar Miller, DeAngelo Williams, Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr, Doug Baldwin, Benjamin Watson, Josh Brown, Carolina Panthers
Millionaire Maker, $3 Entry, $1 Million to First Place
Team: Russell Wilson, Isiah Crowell, Eddie Lacy, Doug Baldwin, Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall, Julius Thomas, Alshon Jeffrey, Chiefs
$15 Million Fantasy Football World Championships Q, $1,000 Entry, $1,000 + Ticket to First and Second
Team: Blake Bortles, Doug Martin, Darren Sproles, Odell Beckham Jr, Allen Hurns, Sammy Watkins, Will Tye, Brandon Marshall, Chiefs
$150K Blitz, $300 Entry, $25,000 to First Place
Team: Blake Bortles, LeSean McCoy, Lamar Miller, AJ Green, Allen Hurns, Tyler Lockett, Zach Miller, Odell Beckham Jr, Seahawks
So What Happened This Weekend?
Most weeks I’m quick to pass judgment on exactly what happened – the chalk was awesome, the chalk wasn’t awesome or this guy saved the day, this guy ruined everything. This week though, the water is murky. There was a rash of injuries once again that took away some valuable players and killed tournament lineups before the day began, as well as chalk options that left us unsatisfied and made the path to cash an uphill battle. Nevertheless, the week played out fair – so as long as you missed all the landmines.
Who Made The Difference?
Typically winning lineups around the industry are centered on a core group of players each week. Normally those few players make it into the top-performers table and carry a variety of ownership levels. This week though, the trio of wide receivers that pushed lineups above and beyond the rest weren’t a surprise – you just had to commit to them.
DK Ownership %
FD Ownership %
|Odell Beckham Jr.||26.4%||24.7%|
Based on the aforementioned ownership levels, you can tell that none of them was completely out of the public’s eye this weekend. It was likely that you used one or even two of the three players in a single lineup. However, the difference was when you connected the dots between each three. A quick scroll through the winning lineups will show you that both the winners of the featured weekly millionaire tournaments featured the complete trio, while most others had at least one, sometimes two of the three.
Really, Really Big Checks
After spending so much time giving notice to the qualifiers that have run all season long, FanDuel finally hosted it’s FFWC this past weekend. I included the winning lineup above, as well as the link above. Congratulations to all that even qualified the event, but bigger kudos to “longbottoms” who managed to walk away with $3,000,000.
Live event finals are the expensive car of DFS tournaments (forgive me, I don’t know much about cars) and thanks to their hefty payouts, and relatively small playing fields, the strategy implored by a player might deviate from typical play. I mean, what would you do if you had a 1/120 shot at winning $3,000,000? Do you play it safe, or take a chance at taking it all down by throwing one or two darts off the board.
Well, “longbottoms” is a pretty good dart player it seems, but he did chuck one into right field when using Todd Gurley. Gurley has been the victim of some heavy, heavy recency bias. He’s been downright atrocious for the last few weeks after tormenting run defenses for a stretch of games earlier in the season. However, despite a heavy drop in salary, paired with a decent matchup, Gurley garnered very little public appeal and became a “tournament only” play.
Gurley found his way onto 2.5% of lineups in the FFWC on FanDuel – or three lineups out of 120. He then ran for 140 yards and two touchdowns, and single-handedly helped print “longbottoms” on a check for three million dollars. I’m sure it’s difficult to pull the trigger on such an off the board play when so much is at stake, but hats off to “longbottoms.” Go buy yourself a Gurley jersey.
Below I’ve once again gone through the quarterbacks used in the top 20 lineups of both of the major tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Sunday Million, FanDuel : THREE different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. ONE LESS quarterback than last week –Russell Wilson, Eli Manning, Blake Bortles. Difference in highest and lowest score = 6.58 (Wilson – Bortles)
Millionaire Maker, DraftKings: THREE quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. THREE LESS quarterbacks used as last week: Russell Wilson, Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Difference in highest and lowest score = 7.46 (Wilson -Fitzpatrick)
First off, again with Ryan Fitzpatrick?! JUST USE THE DUDE AND YOU’LL FIND YOURSELF IN THE TOP 20. Alright, it’s not actually that simple. This week was actually a down week for quarterback usage near the top. Partly because, well, not a lot of quarterbacks were great and some of the heaviest owned quarterbacks (Big Ben, Dalton) were essentially useless or hurt. We’re getting to the point in the season where I’m starting to compile and compare some of the data from week to week as well as across the sites. An early hypothesis guess would be that choosing your large tournament quarterbacks “doesn’t really matter,” especially on DraftKings. That isn’t real scientific, and I’ll clean up the language, but all year long we’ve seen nearly minimum priced quarterbacks find their way into the top 20 lineups, especially on DraftKings. Taking advantage of the passing bonus and using the salary relief to pay for top skill positions in a full point PPR format has worked wonders.
Keep in mind, that DraftKings uses a three point bonus for quarterbacks that throw for over 300 yards. Typically, those that are near the top of the leaderboard are ones that have eclipsed this mark, slightly inflating the difference between the top and bottom, and also the difference in point total from DraftKings to FanDuel.
Congratulations to all the winners from this week, and to the losers, sorry!