NFL GPP Week 15 Recap: CaMVP
Remember when you were forced to sweat your season long team? Forced to root for players that were horrible for a chance at winning like $100 from all of your high school friends. That’s the situation I was in this weekend. Sending out David Johnson, Antonio Brown and Cam Newton in hopes of moving on to the finals. It turns out, if I would have just rostered my season long team in DFS this week, I would have been rich and could have paid someone to write this article this week. But it didn’t happen.
|David Johnson||3RuTd, 4Rec, 187RuYds, 42RecYds||47.9||42.9|
|Cam Newton||5PaTd, 100RuYds, 1FL, 340 PaYds||48.6||41.6|
|Antonio Brown||189RecYds, 16Rec, 2RecTD||49.9||38.9|
|Danny Woodhead||3RecTd, 50RecYds, 6Rec, 1RuTd, 10RuYds||36||33|
$1.75 Million NFL Sunday Million, $25 Entry, $175,000 to First Place
Team: Brock Osweiler, DeAngelo Williams, David Johnson, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Jordan Reed, Jason Myers, Patriots
$200K Gunslinger, $1,065 Entry, $50,000 to First Place
Team: Brock Osweiler, Charcandrick West, David Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown, Greg Olsen, Steven Huaschka, Chiefs
$450K Sunday Monster, $300 Entry, $75,000 to First Place
Team: Cam Newton, David Johnson, Charcandrick West, Antonio Brown, Kamar Aiken, Jordan Matthews, Greg Olsen, Steven Huaschka, Patriots
Final Millionaire Maker, $20 Entry, $1 Million to First Place
Team: Cam Newton, David Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Antonio Brown, Ted Ginn Jr, Allen Robinson, Jordan Reed, Dontrelle Inman, Texans
$15 Million Fantasy Football World Championships, Ticket Entry , $100,000 + Ticket to Grand Final for Top 10
Team: Tyrod Taylor, Devonta Freeman, Charcandrick West, Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins, Julius Thomas, Danny Woodhead, Colts
$750K Blitz, $300 Entry, $150,000 to First Place
Team: Cam Newton, Brandon Bolden, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Stefon Diggs, Demaryius Thomas, Will Tye, Greg Olsen, Bengals
So What Happened This Weekend?
I’m not much of a cook, but I do know that reading recipes is hard – a dash of this, a pinch of that. Most weeks NFL DFS requires some sort of strange concoction of players in order to get a lineup to the top of the leaderboard. This week though, the recipe wasn’t all that strange. It required two cups of contrarian juice, and one part chalk.
Who Made The Difference?
I wasn’t going to make you guess the whole piece who the important cogs were this week, I’m sure you could have guessed them. I labeled them “contrarian juice” and “chalk,” but I’m not even sure that either Antonio Brown or Cam Newton should ever be labeled contrarian at this point. Their prices this week , combined with Brown’s matchup, drove them to lower ownership percentages, but they were absolutely necessary in creating a top lineup. Below I’ve compiled their ownership data to go along with the chalk, David Johnson. Some form of these three players is in every single winning lineup and they all happen to be on my season long team that is heading to the finals next weekend. Yes, go me.
DK Ownership %
FD Ownership %
These ownership levels puzzle me just a tad. While I know that both Cam (price) and Antonio (price +matchup) had reasons to look in other directions, they both carry immense upsides, as they showed this week. I just assumed that given their upsides, both Cam and Antonio had a built in ownership level near 10% and other factors beyond would increase that. If you put your faith in them, congratulations, you probably have a lot of money.
To Gronk or Not to Gronk…
It’s been a few weeks since I’ve been able to run this section, but I wanted to at least touch on it once more. All year long the question at tight-end has been to just pay up for Gronk, or save some salary and look elsewhere. Coming into the year, I would have told you that you were crazy if you told me that most often the answer would have been to fade Gronk, but it’s held true.
This week, more of the same – NOT TO GRONK.
This has been the conclusion all season long. Despite large discrepancies in pricing between Gronk and the rest of the tight ends, he’s never been able to earn his price tag. Each week, players of salaries $2,000 below Gronk are outscoring him or coming so close that the difference is moot. This isn’t a one time thing folks, don’t waste your time with Gronk.
Below I’ve once again gone through the quarterbacks used in the top 20 lineups of both of the major tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Sunday Million, FanDuel: EIGHT different quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. FIVE MORE quarterback than last week: Blake Bortles, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Brock Osweiler, Teddy Bridgewater,Ben Roethlisberger. Difference in highest and lowest score = 19.16 (Newton – Rivers)
Millionaire Maker, DraftKings: FOUR quarterbacks in the top 20 lineups. ONE MORE quarterback used as last week: Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins. Difference in highest and lowest score = 20.7 (Newton – Roethlisberger)
Woah. Crazy mixed results, and an outlier week in general. Please note that this week is not like most of the weeks I’ve documented this season. First off, there usually isn’t much discrepancy between the amount of quarterbacks used on each site and when there is, it usually is a few more or less hinging on DraftKings. That was not the case this week, as DK was dominated by Newton and only cracked a few times with other quarterbacks. Secondly, the difference between the highest and lowest score of top-20 quarterbacks was off the charts, thanks again to Cam’s insane day. For those of you that might be reading for the first time, I encourage you to go back and look, or wait for the season final recap on this section – this has not been the case. On very few occasions a quarterback has truly made the difference, and when he has, it’s been due to a monster week that is outside the normal scoring spectrum for quarterbacks. Cam Newton fits into that category this week, as well as the week that Drew Brees threw for seven touchdowns. It’s bound to happen every once in a while, but isn’t something to hang your hat on. I stand by the “quarterback schmaurterback” phrase. We’ll see what next week brings.
Keep in mind, that DraftKings uses a three point bonus for quarterbacks that throw for over 300 yards. Typically, those that are near the top of the leaderboard are ones that have eclipsed this mark, slightly inflating the difference between the top and bottom, and also the difference in point total from DraftKings to FanDuel.
Congratulations to all the winners from this week, and to the losers, sorry!