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NFL Week 8 Showdown Picks (Updated for MNF)

NFL Week 8 Showdown Picks (Updated for MNF)
DREWBY
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NFL Week 8 Showdown Picks

Make sure to read our Showdown Strategy Guide which breaks down critical components of winning roster construction and how to leverage our NFL Projections and Optimizer to build lineups for tournaments.

Year to Date Winners:

    • GB/CHI – CPTN ARob / ARod / Cohen / MVS / Graham / Packers D
    • PIT/NE – CPTN TB12 / Juju / Edelman / Dorsett / Gostkowski / Burkhead
    • HOU/NO – CPTN Nuke / Watson / Thomas / Ginn / Stills / Lutz
    • DEN/OAK – CPTN Jacobs / Sanders / Sutton / Williams / Waller / McManus
    • CAR/TB – CPTN Godwin / Winston / Moore / Samuel / Olsen / Barber
    • PHI/ATL – CPTN Julio / Wentz / Ryan / Ridley / Agholor / Hollins
    • CLE/NYJ – CPTN Beckham Jr / Bell / Chubb / Browns / Seibert / Johnson
    • TEN/JAX – CPTN Mariota / Fournette / Minshew / Chark / Jags D / Humphries
    • CLE/LAR – CPTN Kupp / Goff / Cooks / Chubb / Zuerlein / Browns
    • CHI/WSH – CPTN Trubisky / Keenum / Richardson / Bears / McLaurin / Gabriel
    • PHI/GB – CPTN Howard / Adams / Rodgers / Wentz / Graham / Allison
    • DAL/NO – CPTN Thomas / Kamara / Elliott / Cowboys / Lutz / Saints
    • CIN/PIT – CPTN Conner / Rudolph / Mixon / Johnson / Steelers / Samuels
    • LAR/SEA – CPTN Kupp / Wilson / Goff / Carson / Everett
    • IND/KC – CPTN Mahomes / Kelce / Brissett / Mack / Colts / Pringle
    • CLE/SF – CPTN Breida / Garoppolo / Kittle / Landry / Coleman / 49ers
    • NYG/NE – CPTN NE D / Brady / Edelman / Tate / White / Bolden
    • PIT/SD – CPTN Conner / Rivers / Williams / Henry / Snell / Steelers
    • DET/GB – CPTN Prater / Rodgers / Stafford / Golladay / Kerryon / J Williams
    • KC/DEN – CPTN Chiefs D / Hill / Kelce / Sutton / Sanders / Freeman
    • PHI/DAL – CPTN Zeke / Prescott / Cooper / Cowboys / Maher / Goedert
    • NYJ/NE – CPTN Pats D / Edelman / Michel / White / Dorsett / Demaryius Thomas

 

Last week marked two straight weeks with a Patriots D CPTN as part of a 5-1 onslaught, while also featuring a Chiefs D CPTN and a 5-1 Cowboys onslaught winner. With the Redskins opening up the slate tonight, the Dolphins on MNF the DST is surely a discussion point as we move onto the Week 8 Showdown Picks.

Our Showdown Strategy Guide has covered extensively the basic rules to build but we will walk through individual notes for each game.

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings

The Redskins are road underdogs versus a stout Minnesota defense and have a team total below 14 points. Regardless, rules mandate you roster at least one Washington football player so we are here to decipher.

On the Redskins injury report Adrian Peterson DNP to open the week and was limited in practice Wednesday. He is listed as questionable wth a high ankle sprain and a low ankle sprain and while he says “he’s good” it remains to be seen if or how he’ll be used. Right now we have Wendell Smallwood getting the majority of the work and even if AP is active Smallwood should play on passing downs. The Redskins have also promoted Craig Reynolds from their practice squad. With the Redskins hoping to deploy a run-first scheme and Reynolds did receive some practice reps with the first team. His involvement likely hinges mostly on the health of Peterson, and it is not out of the question that if AP is limited (or the Redskins are down 4 TDs) that Reynolds gets some snaps.

With questions at RB, we can at least count on a mostly condensed passing game between Terry McLaurin, Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn, and Jeremy Sprinkle. Whether building through 5-1 or 4-2 Vikings teams, these receivers and Smallwood are going to provide the best PPR options as your Redskins exposure.

Adam Thielen is out for the Vikings, which means Bisi Johnson will step into an expanded role and provides a great value on tonight’s slate. Additionally, Irv Smith should receive more passing work at the slot position, and Treadwell is projected for a limited workload but is a bit volatile as a single injury would land him immediately in 100% of snaps given the Vikings will have just three wide receivers active. Both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison can be rostered tonight — even on the same team in 5-1 onslaughts — given the Vikings could be comfortably ahead in the 4th quarter if not earlier. We are projecting Cook for 60 percent of the carries but it is worth noting that Mattison’s spike weeks in carries have mostly come in games where Minnesota was comfortably winning.

How will the field play things? Luckily, we had a fairly similar matchup recently with the Patriots playing the Jets. In that game, roster construction was as follows (NE-NYJ):

  • 5-1 was 30 percent of the field
  • 4-2 was 34.5 percent of field
  • 3-3 was 24.3 percent of field
  • 2-4 was 10 percent of field
  • 1-5 was 1.8 percent of field

In that same game, 72 percent of the field rostered a Patriots Captain while 28 percent of the field rostered a Jets Captain. There are lots of ways to get contrarian, but thinking about how the field is constructing lineups is an important element.

The Vikings D is firmly in play tonight, so correlating lineups around that D is important. Lineups with the Vikings D should boost projections of the Vikings kicking game and both Cook / Mattison at the RB position while reducing projections for Adrian Peterson, the Redskins D/Kicker combo, and Case Keenum. This rule applies to if you use the Vikings D as your captain as well. The Patriots D was the most owned CPTN on the last slate, so I may play aggressive and fade the Vikings D at CPTN tonight but if I do play them I’ll certainly be using a strategic key boost rule.

 

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