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NHL DFS Thursday 10/3: Stacks to Target (Updated)

NHL DFS Thursday 10/3: Stacks to Target (Updated)
DREWBY
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Stacking is a popular way to play NHL GPPs. While the changes in DraftKings scoring system may impact the way we want to approach things, we will still be on the lookout for correlation and upside in the right matchup. Here are a few spots I’ll be looking to target.

 

Winnipeg Jets at NY Rangers

We covered this in our season preview but both teams should play a fun blend of hockey. The Rangers added Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba, Adam Fox and Kaapo Kakko in the offseason and have the 4th highest implied goal total on tonight’s slate. The Jets meanwhile will be playing without their three best defensemen from the 2018 season. And yes, it is a Trouba revenge game. The Rangers top line is correlated on the PP, a reasonably priced $17,000 and features three players with high upside. This stack won’t fly under the radar but it is still a strong one to target.

Looking to play contrarian? Two of my favorite options are also in this game:

  • Consider Connor Hellebuyck in net. He is not popping in projections given the high expected goal total against, but he should see a high volume of shots and has a reasonable possibility to hit the 35+ bonus on DK. If the Jets were to win tonight it could be a YAHTZEE game for Hellboy and provide leverage against the popular Rangers top line.
  • I also like the WPG1 Top Line with defenseman Josh Morrisey tonight. With Trouba and Meyers gone, and Big Buff pondering life, Morrisey will log upwards of 25 minutes including Top PP work for the Jets. Consider using WPG1 in game stacks or with Hellebuyck tonight.

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

Our Top Value stack of tonight is Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Victor Oloffson. Nearly a point per game player in the A, we’re not 100% sure what to expect from Oloffson on the season and have his per minute baselines a bit below Reinhart. But a fully correlated spot, a $15.5K stack cost, and a decent matchup against a poor defensive Penguins team has us willing to gamble. Buffalo 1 can be run alone or with a reasonably priced Rasmus Dahlin who will build on his rookie season and see top pair D and PP time to start his sophomore campaign. It wouldn’t be surprising if Dahlin hit $5.5-$6k this season if he ends up with workhorse usage – we aren’t projecting that now so there is even upside to his projection and he could double bonus tonight.

Much like the Jets – Rangers game, savvy fantasy players can consider game stacking this and hoping for whistle happy refs or an upscale pace of play. Crosby’s line is fully correlated and I’m even considering playing Malkin Naked tonight.

 

Contrarian Angles?

While we’ve taken our best guess at each team to start the season, anything can happen with a random night of hockey, particularly with a new season upon us. Here are a few lines that don’t pop but could catch the right break:

  • Florida 1: They don’t pop because playing in Tampa Bay is a tough matchup and Vasy is a tough goalie to beat. Will that still be the case in 2019? Will that still be the case tonight against a team missing Brayden Point? Fully correlated, fully talented, reasonably priced, MME users should consider mixing in some Panthers exposure.
  • Dallas 1: You’ll probably never get Dallas exposure as low as you’ll get it tonight. Another line that offers full correlation, but if Dallas chooses to use Seguin-Benn-Pavelski against Boston depth lines instead of Bergeron they have hat trick upside at 5 percent ownership.
  • Nashville: Minnesota has a strong defensive reputation but even in their prime played worse on the road than at home. Add in some major roster turnover at forward, the Wild could be a team to target on the road despite still having a strong top set of D. Johansen-Arvidsson and Forsberg-Duchene are interesting duos. We also have Punt D value on rookie Dante Fabbro in his first game in Nashville.
  • Colorado 1: Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen are coming off monster seasons and get a solid matchup right away on home ice. Calgary has all the makings of a playoff team once again but their goaltending, led by David Rittich and Cam Talbot, projects to be a below average tandem. The Avs carry the second highest implied goal total (3.4) in this slate.
  • Arizona 1: We covered this in our season preview but it’s worth noting once more – Anaheim should struggle defensively again. They have one of it not the best goaltenders in the league (John Gibson), but as we saw last season, that’s not enough in the long haul. Theoretically, some of their dmen *should* rebound but we remain skeptical on the whole. Enter Arizona’s top line, fully correlated and featuring Phil Kessel, their top acquisition in the offseason. They’ll have minimal ownership to boot.

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