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11/12 NBA DFS: Do us a Favor. Play Derrick.

11/12 NBA DFS: Do us a Favor. Play Derrick.
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Daily Fantasy Rundown –November 12 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” andTheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

Short Slate Disclaimer:

For those experiencing our content for the first time, the game-by-game preview format is used for short slates. Nights when the schedule typically ranges from two to four games we refer to as a short slate and that will result in heavy overlap around the industry. The more overlap there is, the smaller the margin for error and the more variance that is introduced into your results. We understand the excitement associated with the start of the NBA season, but we’d recommend approaching this slate with some caution. We recommend playing a smaller percentage than your typical night or sitting out the slate altogether. On a short slate, there are fewer errors for your opponents to make and thus less room for a skill advantage to come to fruition.

Also of note, early in the season we’ll focus a bit more on macro concepts. Our goal is to help teach what factors we view as important and while data takes some time to normalize we’ll use a bit more traditional scouting in our recommendations. The important thing early in the season is to try to identify change in player skills and coaching that could lead to dramatic changes in Fantasy production.

Utah Jazz at Miami Heat

Line: Miami -5

Total: 182

All team statistics as of the end of last season

Pace rankings: Utah 30th, Miami 29th

Total team defensive efficiency: Utah 12th, Miami 19th

Defensive efficiency ranks by position

Against point guards: Utah 7th, Miami 18th

Against shooting guards: Utah 8th, Miami 4th

Against small forwards: Utah 4th, Miami 19th

Against power forwards: Utah 17th, Miami 5th

Against centers: Utah 1st, Miami 10th

Rebounding rate rank: Utah 1st, Miami 24th

Turnover ratio (from least to most): Utah 26th, Miami 25th

Top Play:

Derrick Favors (UTA) – Favors’ minutes are a bit skewed this season. While he’s averaging 30 minutes, that’s being dragged down by a game in which he didn’t return due to an illness (played only 15 minutes) and three blowout games. Realistically, Favors’ minutes should be hovering north of 35 minutes per game. With that being said, he’s still averaging 1.15 Fantasy points per minutes this season, and 30 minutes gets him close to his value thresholds around the industry. While the matchup doesn’t look great on paper (Miami ranked fifth in defensive efficiency last season vs. power forwards), Chris Bosh isn’t a very good defender (105 career defensive rating). This season, Miami is ranked 17th vs. power forwards in defensive efficiency. That’s where we expect them to hover moving forward, and Favors might receive an uptick in minutes tonight if Rudy Gobert is out. Gobert missed practice on Wednesday and is questionable to play this evening. If Favors is able to play 35 minutes, (the allotment of minutes that he’s played in competitive games this season) he will approach 40 Fantasy points. His value threshold is 36 Fantasy points on DraftKings where he costs 14 percent more than the average cost of a roster spot. Favors is the only option that we feel comfortable deploying in all formats from this game.

Value Play:

Trevor Booker (UTA) – If Booker draws the start for Rudy Gobert at center, he should approach 30 minutes. The matchup is as bad as it gets (Hassan Whiteside has a 96 career defensive rating), but Booker was a productive Fantasy point per minute player last season (0.88 DraftKings points per minute). Even if you account for a dip in efficiency due to the tough matchup, a 30-minute starting role would put Booker on top of his thresholds everywhere. He’s minimum priced, so he only needs around 18-20 Fantasy points to realize his value. We’re still awaiting confirmation on Gobert, but if he’s out, Booker becomes one of the best salary relief options on this slate.

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