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11/14 NBA DFS: Hardened Wall

11/14 NBA DFS: Hardened Wall
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 14 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem”, “TheNumbersGuy” and “gsd4“. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings

Top Play:

Stephen Curry (GS) – You can’t deny Curry as the top play at the position on a night where Russell Westbrook isn’t involved. We’ve time and time talked about how DraftKings pushes you to play at least one stud nightly given their pricing/scoring system, and Curry is a good at example. He’s at least moving upwards ($10,700; 71 percent premium), but even at that tag he’s averaging 4.7 more DraftKings points per game than his value threshold (50.8). That’s something we really don’t see with the sub-$9k priced players, especially not after 10 games with an unchanging role. So, he should really dismantle a Brooklyn team that has been pretty poor defensively. The issue here is opportunity cost (several other guards we’re high on) combined with blowout risk. While the latter really hasn’t prevented Curry from succeeding for the most part, the risk is very present tonight. The Warriors are 18-point home favorites facing a Brooklyn team on the second night of a back to back and across the country. Curry is viable in all formats due to the price relative to the production, but he’s not someone we’re looking to build rosters around tonight. We’re as scared by that as you are.

Next in line:

John Wall (WAS) – Wall is the expensive point guard we’re interested in owning tonight. The savings from Curry is meaningful and allows you to pair Wall with James Harden and use two studs in your backcourt. We feel Wall is a bit underpriced based on the huge shift in pace that Washington has undergone this season. They ranked 16th in the metric last season but our first this season, leading to around 8.5 more possessions per game, which is significant. Wall has a great combination of a high floor and a high ceiling facing an Orlando team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency against point guards, where they ranked last season. He dropped 53.75 DraftKings points on the Magic in the season opener, and we’re expecting a similarly strong performance tonight.

Value Plays:

Brandon Knight (PHX) – Knight faces a Denver defense ranked 28th in defensive against backcourt players, which puts him in a nice spot considering the high total in this game (208.5) and the Suns concentrated guard usage (which could be even higher if Markieff Morris is out). Even playing alongside Eric Bledsoe, Knight has a very solid combination of a 25.1 usage rate and 21.3 assist rate. Surprisingly both Knight and Bledsoe have managed to possess a consistently high floor. Knight has hit at least 34 DraftKings points (value threshold of 36.4 tonight) in six of eight games this season. We view John Wall (above) and Elfrid Payton (below) as having a bit more profit potential, but Wall is the best option priced in between those two players and gains a bit more appeal on FanDuel, where Payton isn’t priced as favorably.

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