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11/17 NBA DFS: Is this PG Value Alive?

11/17 NBA DFS: Is this PG Value Alive?
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 17 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Is this PG Value Alive?

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings

Top Play:

Stephen Curry (GS) – We talk about it time and time again, but you really want to fit in a stud in the $10k price range on DraftKings as those players are simply underpriced based on the site’s scoring system. Curry continues to average more DraftKings points (54.8) than his value threshold (50.8) despite a gradually rising price tag ($10,700; 71 percent premium). With Curry we’re a bit less worried about his matchups from an efficiency standpoint (this one is a bit below neutral) and more concerned with them from a competitive standpoint, in hopes that he hits 35 or more minutes, which he’s surprisingly done in six straight contests. Against a good Toronto team (nine point spread) there’s a good chance Curry makes that seven straight contests. Due to opportunity cost, we’re leaning slightly towards Anthony Davis as the stud to build around in cash games, but DraftKings gives you a bit more flexibility in that regard, since you can play up to three point guards.

Value Plays:

Dennis Schroder (ATL) – With Jeff Teague injured, Dennis Schroder will start at point guard as he did on Sunday when he played 33 minutes and recorded 32.5 DraftKings points. Schroder is a phenomenal value at $4,600 on DraftKings (26 percent discount), where he needs just 26.4 points to pay off his salary. Since the beginning of last season, Schroder has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute, according to NBAwowy, when Jeff Teague is not on the floor. There’s a large margin for error and a lot of room for profit with an expected 30-plus minute role, since Schroder will hit his value threshold in 25-26 minutes on average with that per minute production. To make Schroder even more attractive, he faces a Brooklyn team that is led by Jarrett Jack at point guard (poor career 111 defensive rating) and not surprisingly ranks 20th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 25th in team defensive efficiency.

Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN) – The young rookie is someone we’ve been high on this season due to the awesome amount of volume he’s receiving. According to ESPN, Mudiay is seventh of 70 qualified point guards in usage rate and 17th in rebounding rate while ranking 15th among all players in Basketball-Reference assist percentage. The issue with Mudiay is efficiency as he’s very turnover prone and hasn’t shot the ball well. As a result, he’s the exact type of player where we’ll strongly weigh strength of matchup, and tonight’s matchup is very favorable. The Hornets are dead last in defensive efficiency against point guards and dead last in defensive efficiency as a team. As an added bonus, this game has the second highest total of the night, and the New Orleans scorekeeper has a reputation for being friendly when it comes to handing out assists. Mudiay’s a nice industry wide value at below the average cost of a roster spot.

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