11/21 CFB DFS: It’s Safe to Ride With These Cowboys
Welcome to Saturday’s Late Slate edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
If there’s something you’d like to see added or have any questions, please email us at email@example.com.
*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders (updated as of 10/31/15)
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
As usual, there’s a crowded field of top plays this Saturday night. Of the top four plays at the position, Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma vs. TCU) provides the best combination of safety and upside. While all top four plays at the position have relatively the same expected value come Saturday, we feel the safest with Mayfield. Mayfield is incredibly accurate (70.2 percent completion percentage), explosive (averaging 10 yards per attempt) and productive (averaging 308 passing yards, 30 rushing yards and 3.7 touchdowns per game). Couple his skill set with friendly volumes in the passing (averaging 31 passing attempts) and rushing (averaging 11 carries) departments, and you get remarkable DFS production (averaging 32 Fantasy points per game). After posting a clunker (17 Fantasy points) in a great matchup vs. Texas Tech (he wasn’t needed much since his running backs destroyed an awful rushing defense), Mayfield has generated more than 35 Fantasy points in each of his last three starts. We expect more of the same against TCU’s defense (ranked 77th in overall S&P+), and his price point isn’t restrictive on any site. His value against a below average defense in a high paced environment (TCU is ranked second in adjusted pace; Oklahoma is ranked 22nd) should be at its very peak. Use him in all formats.