Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 21 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Top Play: John Wall (WAS) (clear top play but not a ton of per dollar value; in tournament consideration as the highest raw expected scorer at the position on a shorter slate)
Next in line:
Reggie Jackson (DET) – On a short slate, it’s not a bad idea to lock in some security in a second guard spot, even if it doesn’t come with expected profit. Neither Wall nor Jackson come with that profit, but are relatively safe from a raw total standpoint. Since we’re not expecting profit as the average outcome for either of these players, we’d rather save money and drop down to Jackson. Plus, Jackson has a bit more profit potential if he hits a top 20 percent outcome as he’s playing up dramatically in pace (Washington leads the NBA in pace).
Matthew Dellavedova (CLE) – After a great playoffs, Dellavedova has shown growth in his third regular season. His playing time has gone from 20.6 minutes to 26.9 with increases in usage and assist rates. As a result his FanDuel per minute production has moved from 0.6 last season (made him almost unusable regardless of circumstance) to 0.7 this season (still low but a full FanDuel point per 10 minute increase means he can be used in the right context). With Mo Williams out, we should see a lot of playing time for Dellavedova. He played 38 minutes filling in for Williams last game. Aside from the playing time, Dellavedova has seen a 10 percent increase in his usage rate with Williams off the floor (versus his season long average), and a 22.5 percent increase in his assist rate. On a short slate, opportunity cost isn’t nearly as high as usual at point guard. We’re willing to take on a bit more skill risk as a result and use Dellavedova as a source of salary cap relief in a good spot.