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11/22 NBA DFS: Dark Knight Rises

11/22 NBA DFS: Dark Knight Rises
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – Novemeber 22 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” andTheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel

Top Play:

Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Westbrook has always been the top point guard option when Kevin Durant is out. His usage rate elevates from 30 percent (with Durant) to 39 percent (without Durant). His assist rate also receives a bump (from 37 percent with Durant to 45 percent without Durant), and so do his minutes (from 33 minutes to 35 minutes). His matchup isn’t good on paper (Dallas is ranked sixth in defensive efficiency vs. point guards and ninth in overall defensive efficiency), but that’s mostly trivial for Westbrook. However, Kevin Durant went from being ruled out to questionable overnight, and Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle believes that Durant “will play.” If Durant suits up, Westbrook is simply overpriced relative to his opportunities with Durant on the floor. If Durant is ruled out, Westbrook remains too cheap on our featured site for point guards (FanDuel). On FanDuel, Westbrook only needs an average performance without Durant in order to go over his value threshold (he’s averaging 53.6 FanDuel points and his value threshold is 52.6 FanDuel points). On DraftKings, the gap between Westbrook and our next in line options at the position is too steep. For example, Westbrook is $1,400 more expensive than Stephen Curry on DraftKings, and Curry’s average performance on that site easily puts him over his value threshold. While we’d rather use Westbrook exclusively in tournaments on that particular site, if solid punt plays become available and Durant remains out, then Westbrook becomes cash playable on DraftKings. UPDATE: Kevin Durant has been ruled out.

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