November 28 EPL DFS Picks: Mess with the Yohan
Welcome to this week’s edition of our English Premier League content here on DailyRoto. We have a very nice slate this week with six games going on Saturday and we’ll try to find some great value here.
There are some interesting matchups, so let’s take a quick look at the winning percentages below as calculated from sports book odds.
The most interesting game here is probably Leicester City at Manchester United. Leicester find themselves in first place in the Premier League after barely escaping relegation last season and have played some incredibly great football. They lead the league in goals and come in fifth in shots per match, but Manchester United have been the exact opposite – a defensive powerhouse. It’s going to be a very interesting clash of styles here, but I suspect it will be Manchester’s style that will prevail. United might not get the win, but they’ve been too good at controlling the ball in the past several weeks that I don’t see Leicester getting their way and attacking all match. Expect a low scoring affair here. With that in mind, let’s get to some plays.
There are no cash game options that stick out here. The highest win percentage of the week goes to Manchester City, but they looked horrific in defense last time out and Joe Hart is hurt. Willy Caballero is capable, but with Vincent Kompany out again, their back-line is a mess and can’t be trusted. They face a good Southampton team, although Graziano Pelle’s absence is certainly a plus for City. Still, this may be the best option.
Mediocre Choice One – Willy Caballero ($2,800) – The best thing about Caballero is his price. I think Southampton will be active enough to get shots on goals at Manchester City, and Caballero can rack up saves there. I’m more banking on saves than a clean sheet here, and hoping the high win chances come through with a nice win bonus. There is risk involved with all goalkeepers this week, so take the cheap way out and spend up elsewhere.
Mediocre Choice Two – Tim Howard ($3,900) – The American goalkeeper has been pretty good in the last few weeks despite allowing five goals over his last four matches. He has made some great saves along the way, and has averaged 10 points per match over the timeframe. Facing Bournemouth on the road should give him enough shots on goals for him to rack up saves. There is both upside and a decent floor here, but at $1,100 more than Caballero, it’ll be hard to fit him in cash lineups. Howard is probably better used in tournaments.
The Third Wheel – Costel Pantilimon ($2,900) – Pantilimon has recorded 21 saves over his last four matches. His defense is horrible and teams are slamming Sunderland with shots, giving him good save opportunities. He gets Stoke City at home, so a win is definitely possible, and Pantilimon is one of the better tournaments options at just $2,900. I wouldn’t trust him in cash games, as there is certainly risk there, but it’s hard to find higher upside goalkeepers for tournament purposes.
The Cash Game Play – Alan Hutton ($3,300) – Hutton was extremely disappointing last time out against Everton but it’s hard to fade him again at this price. He goes back home this week and faces a Watford team that likes to defend. That should give Hutton plenty of chances to move forward and send crosses in. There isn’t really a huge upside here, even at his low price, but in cash games, there is no problem with locking Hutton in and spending at midfield and forward.
The Other Cash Game Play – Christian Fuchs ($3,400) – Fuchs has been a DFS favorite the past few weeks and his price has understandably increased. With his cross volume and his corner kick duties, I suspect he’ll once again be a decent cash game option. Similarly to Hutton, there is almost no upside there, but I find it really hard to build a good cash game lineup with an expensive defender like Aleksandar Kolarov, so I find myself going the cheap route with the likes of Hutton and Fuchs.
The GPP Option – Seamus Coleman ($4,300) or Aleksandar Kolarov ($5,300) – Neither of these guys really stand out to me. In GPPs, I’m more inclined to play expensive defender options, and Coleman and Kolarov presents good upside in favorable spots. They both have assists upside as well as a good mix of secondary stats and make for a fine play in GPPs.
Defender Notes – There are really no good defender options that stand out to me this week. All good players are in a tough spot or come too expensive (Kolarov). I’m inclined to play cheap defenders across the board in both cash and GPP lineups. Other options are Cedric Soares and Erik Pieters, but I’m pretty confident I’ll end up on Cedric/Hutton/Fuchs in cash games and spend up at midfield and striker.
The Top Choice – Yohan Cabaye ($5,700) – It seems like DraftKings ran a Black Friday deal on Cabaye by pricing him at $5,700. The midfielder takes corner kicks at a fairly high rate and has a very safe floor, especially in what seems like the best matchup of this slate. He presents the same floor as the top priced options in midfield and possess upside higher than almost anyone in the slate. He is going to feature in close to 100% of my lineups.
Secondary Option – Dusan Tadic ($7,700) – Tadic has been fantastic in the past three weeks, averaging over 12 crosses per match. His corner kick duty is very beneficial to his value, and despite the tough matchup, I expect Tadic to have an extremely safe floor once again. The upside is probably a bit limited with Graziano Pelle missing this match, but a penalty or a goal can certainly see Tadic explode once again. He is viable in both GPPs and cash games, but is a much better option in cash than GPP.
The GPP Option – Ross Barkley ($6,700) – I made a big mistake not recommending Ross Barkley this week, and although I don’t like him in cash games, I think he’s once again a fantastic GPP option. The midfielder has been spectacular and has a number of fantastic goals this year. He faces a poor Bournemouth team and Everton is on fire at the moment. This could be a multi-goal game, and Barkley is likely to be involved in some of those goals.
Midfielder Notes – I’m fading Riyah Mahrez in cash due to the extremely high price and tough matchup, but Kevin De Bruyne is viable in both cash and GPP games. David Silva is fine in GPPs as I expect the ownership to be low with him being questionable until today. Sadio Mane could be a lot more involved with Pelle out, but his matchup is quite tough and it’s very hard to own him in cash. He’s strictly a GPP option. Yannick Bolasie is cheap enough to be considered in both cash and GPP in a plus matchup. Stacking him with Cabaye is not something you should actively avoid. Junior Stanislas takes a decent number of Bournemouth’s corners and that makes him a decent value play at $3,600.
The Top Choice – Sergio Aguero ($7,800) – Aguero is priced at $100 cheaper than Jamie Vardy and the value difference here isn’t even close this week. Aguero plays at home in what could be a high-scoring matchup and is by far the superior talent. Vardy is the more in-form option, but his matchup is extremely tough and I can’t justify using him in cash at any cost. Aguero is cash viable, mainly because he’s so explosive and quite dangerous to fade. I expect him to be fairly high owned and that scares me for fading him in cash. There is some concern with his fitness, so keep an eye out on the press conferences to see if he’ll start. The good news is that the game is early, so we’ll know before lock on all sites. With the high ownership and injury problems, Aguero is probably a solid fade in tournaments, but even there I’d have at least a few shares.
The Top GPP Play – Romelu Lukaku ($7,600) – Lukaku’s price has increased significantly but he faces a weak Bournemouth team and is on a crazy streak right now. He has scored in three straight and has really played well as of late. I’m expecting a decent bit of ownership to go towards Aguero, but I much prefer Lukaku in GPPs. I wouldn’t be opposed to stacking Aguero and Lukaku in a GPP lineup either, even though that’ll be tough price-wise.
The Value GPP Play – Connor Wickham ($3,600) – There’s a ton of cheap forwards this week that are in good spots, and Connor Wickham is one. His floor is very, very low, but a goal against Newcastle can’t be ruled out and that would ensure he reaches value. Use him in GPPs with confidence. Ensure he starts before you use him.
The Value Play – Joshua King ($3,200) – King had an easy tap in last week and his matchup this week is tougher. I don’t know if Bournemouth can attack Everton successfully, but King is worth a punt at his price as the lone starting striker. I don’t mind GPP lineups that stack a number of high end midfielders with the likes of King and Wickham, and if forced to do it, I might even consider King in cash. Using him in cash is risky, but he doesn’t need to do much to reach value and he almost certainly will let you afford Sergio Aguero.
Forward Notes – Whoever starts at striker for both Sunderland and Stoke is a decent option in GPPs. No forwards on either team do enough to be considered for cash, but there will likely be goals here and in GPPs, anyone starting is worth a punt play. Odion Ighalo’s form hasn’t been too hot but considering he faces Aston Villa, there is GPP potential there.