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11/4 NBA DFS: Tonight’s Going to be a Good, Good Knight

11/4 NBA DFS: Tonight’s Going to be a Good, Good Knight
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 4 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel

Top Plays:

Both Russell Westbrook (OKC) and Stephen Curry (GS) have pretty much proven to be matchup proof. They are elite tournament options nightly. On FanDuel, we prefer exposure to them stick in tournaments (if spending up it makes more sense to do so at scarce positions since you need two shooting guards and two small forwards). However, on DraftKings, Westbrook and Curry are priced friendlier (especially given a scoring system more suited to stars). Between that and a bit more roster flexibility, they are cash viable on that site. We give a slight lean to Curry on that site since he’s a bit cheaper and could see his highest minutes total on the young season (in the game with the highest total at 218).

Next in line: John Wall (WAS) (tough matchup against the Spurs but the tight spread and Wizards current up tempo game keep him tournament viable across the industry)

Value Plays:

Brandon Knight (PHX) – Knight has played 87 percent of his minutes at shooting guard and 13 percent at point guard. While we normally prefer a point guard over a shooting guard, all things being equal, it’s not as damaging for Knight and is actually a plus for him tonight. The Suns face a Sacramento team that was atrocious at defending shooting guards last season (dead last in defensive efficiency against), and with the addition of Marco Belinelli, have not surprisingly failed to see an improvement early on this season (remain dead last in defensive efficiency against shooting guards). Knight attacked in isolation just under 10 percent of the time with Phoenix last year, and was very successful when doing so (89th percentile in points per possession). Meanwhile, both Sacramento shooting guards, Ben McLemore (33rd percentile in points per possession allowed) and Marco Belinelli (10th percentile) were very poor at defending that play type. Aside from the great matchup, Knight still gets point guard like production from the shooting guard spot (22.6 usage rate and 21.6 assist rate with Phoenix last season, both numbers slightly up early on this year). This year he’s benefitting from a tighter backcourt rotation, which has yielded 35.8 minutes per game for Knight (4.3 increase from last season). All in all, you’ve got a guard who is a bit underpriced (the minutes increase) in an elite matchup. Knight is even more valuable on sites where he holds shooting guard eligibility.

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