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11/6 NBA DFS: Rockets Take Flight

11/6 NBA DFS: Rockets Take Flight
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – November 6 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is referenced as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel

Top Play:

Stephen Curry (GS) – Curry is averaging an awesome 53.7 FanDuel points per game. Even at $10,900, that average puts Curry above his 48.6 FanDuel point threshold (based on a target score of 285 FanDuel points). We probably haven’t been as prone to go studs and duds the past week as we should have. A combination of underpriced studs, injury news, and viable cheap options available early in the season has made the studs and duds strategy work quite well. It should work again tonight, particularly on DraftKings where high volume studs are even more valuable. There is definitely blowout risk for Curry tonight (18 point spread), but we like him to hit value even if minutes are limited. Curry is averaging 32 minutes per game on the season despite an average margin of victory of 20.8 points (and routinely hitting value as evidenced by his FanDuel average). In a game that should be extremely up tempo (Golden State and Denver were first and third in pace last season), the Warriors have a huge team total (115). Curry should have a high Fantasy point per minute rate in tonight’s game as a result. Denver is 22nd in defensive efficiency against point guards on the young season, and their rookie PG (Emmanuel Mudiay) is averaging 5.6 turnovers per game, which matches up well with Curry’s ability to rack up steals (2.0 per game last year).

Value Plays:

Kyle Lowry (TOR) – Lowry, is averaging 1.5 points above his value threshold on FanDuel (37). That number probably reduces a bit as the season progresses (FG% and defensive stats will drop off), but the matchup tonight should ease any regression concerns as should a price tag that hasn’t risen too much despite the stellar production. Orlando has been running at a faster pace this season (top 10 in the league). That could be a bit opponent related, but with Nikola Vucevic out, the Magic should utilize a lot of small ball lineups that will likely result in a quicker pace. Orlando is also currently 25th in defensive efficiency against the point guard position after finishing last season ranked 24th.

Jarrett Jack (BKN) – Jack is a player we’ve been on as a tournament option recently, but it hasn’t quite panned out. If you’re simply game log watching, it’s probably confusing to see him go from a failed tournament option to someone we’re targeting in cash games, given that he hasn’t reached his FanDuel value threshold of 29.4 points by an average of double digits over his past two contests and is averaging just 24.4 FanDuel points on the season. However, Jack simply could not be in a better situation tonight following some bad luck with the schedule to begin the year. For starters, in two of his four games decided by 10 points or less, Jack played 35 minutes each. In two blowouts, he played just 27 minutes. Tonight’s contest against a bad Lakers team sets up to be close (winless Nets are favored by just three points), leaving us confident in Jack’s playing time. Secondly, Jack has faced four tough opponents this season: the Spurs (19th in defensive efficiency against point guards last season and third in team defensive efficiency), the Grizzlies (11th and fourth), the Bucks (second and second), and the Hawks (12th and seventh). That’s a pretty brutal stretch. Tonight Jack faces a Lakers team that was dead last in defensive efficiency against point guards last season and 29th in team defensive efficiency. This year has started similarly (29th and 30th). With Jack’s price reducing, a competitive game expected, and a huge increase in matchup favorability, he’s a great industry wide value tonight.

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