Welcome to October 1 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
October 1 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Sunday brings the final day of the baseball season, and exactly 0 games have meaning. With that being said, there is a lot of uncertainty and as a disclaimer, the lack of clarity will bring a bit more brief slate analysis.
Josh Tomlin (CLE) and the Indians wrap up their season with another perfect matchup against the Chicago White Sox. The Sox have the lowest implied run total on the slate at 3.1 runs and Tomlin is a -250 favorite. The safety is unparalleled as far as the matchup goes, but you’re not going to garner much upside from Tomlin, who has faced no more than 22 batters in each of his last six starts. Nevertheless, we want to take advantage of one of the worst offenses in the league.
James Paxton (SEA), Kevin Gausman (BAL) and Cole Hamels (TEX) all fit a similar mold on DraftKings, where they are priced in a middle tier that makes them acceptable secondary starting pitchers along with Tomlin. Paxton worked up to more than five innings in his last start and gets an excellent pitcher’s park, but a tough strikeout matchup with the Angels. On the other hand, both Hamels and Gausman get great strikeout matchups with the Rays and A’s respectively. Gausman gets the benefit of pitching in Tropicana Field, where he’ll get a Rays team that has the third highest K% versus RHP. On FanDuel it makes sense to just avoid this tier where Tomlin is only $6,700 – but these arms will provide you some relative safety in skill set and are acceptable pairings on DraftKings.
Nick Pivetta (PHI) is an interesting option with strikeout potential on this slate. The Mets can throw out a completely watered down, beaten up lineup and Pivetta actually has some strikeout upside (23.7% K%). At $6,900 – it’s conceivable you could use him in cash games alongside Tomlin, but he makes for an interesting pivot on FanDuel as well at $6,700.
Robbie Ray (ARI) is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but it’s already been documented that he likely will not last long in his game. At more than $11,000 on DraftKings – he shouldn’t be touched in cash games, and deserves VERY MINIMAL exposure in tournaments.
Again, lineups and line movement will greatly help dictate where we might go with starting pitchers.
With no need to save at any offensive position, we can definitely get to Gary Sanchez (NYY) on either site. Sanchez has posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days and gets the platoon edge on Brett Anderson in his home park. He’s especially valuable over on FanDuel at $3,400. For a bit cheaper on DraftKings you can get exposure to Austin Barnes (LAD) in Coors Field. Barnes is not as skilled as Sanchez (it’s not close), but he’s been solid against LHP (.368 wOBA, .224 ISO since 2015) and will draw the platoon edge in Coors Field.
Joey Gallo (TEX) hit his 40th home run last night and remains the top per dollar play at the position on Sunday. He’s $2,600 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings and will once again draw the platoon edge in his home park. His opposition, Daniel Mengden, is fly ball prone and has allowed 1.50 HR/9 this season with just a 14.6% K% – a perfect trio for Gallo.
Mark Reynolds (COL) leaps to one of the most valuable per dollar spots on DraftKings as he and the Rockies will draw Ross Stripling in Coors Field. The Rockies have now clinched, so there is no urgency but a watered down lineup could actually boost Reynolds lineup spot (assuming he gets in). If paying up though, we’d like to get one of Anthony Rizzo (CHC) or Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) who are the top projected scorers at the position. Rizzo will draw young right-hander Deck McGuire and the Cubs have an implied run total of 5.8 runs while Goldy draws soft-tossing LHP Jason Vargas. Where Goldschmidt is actually cheaper on DraftKings, we’d prefer to utilize him but Rizzo brings a $100 discount on FanDuel.
For the second night in a row Chris Taylor (LAD) and Rougned Odor (TEX) are the top two options at the second base position. Taylor brings a leadoff hitter in Coors Field, and that’s about as much as you need to know. His price tag is valuable, but the savings won’t be a necessity on this slate. With that being said, it makes Odor’s $2,200 price on FanDuel an unnecessary luxury to have.
There you could pay up for Brian Dozier (MIN) or Jose Altuve (HOU). Dozier will draw Anibal Sanchez, who has a 6.46 ERA and has allowed 2.33 HR/9. At $4,700 it would be really tough to pay for Dozier in cash games, but he’s an excellent tournament option. Altuve is no longer the top per dollar play on FanDuel, but he’s an option for $400 less than Dozier. He projects with the fourth highest raw total, but he’s likely the most event oriented player at the position. Logan Forsythe (LAD) is priced up on FanDuel at $3,700 – but he’s in Coors Field and will have the platoon edge on Tyler Anderson. Forsythe has quietly been fantastic against LHP, posting a .382 wOBA and .230 ISO since 2015.
No surprise, but Justin Turner (LAD) and Nolan Arenado (COL) are the top two third basemen on Sunday. Arenado is insanely priced on both sites, but Turner is actually quite valuable on DraftKings where he is just $4,600. Tyler Anderson isn’t the weakest arm on this slate, but he’s allowed 1.67 HR/9 due to an elevated HR/FB%.
You can go very cheap at the position with Manny Machado (BAL) who is only $3,200 on FanDuel. Machado won’t get the luxury of his hitter friendly home park, but will draw the platoon edge on Blake Snell for far too cheap relatively speaking. Rostering Machado on FanDuel will save you more than $1,500 over Arenado and Turner. On DraftKings your cheapy is Joey Gallo (TEX) who has dual positional eligibility. We’d prefer to pay up for Justin Turner on the site, but if Turner isn’t in the lineup – dropping down to Gallo, or perhaps Nick Castellanos (DET) against Bartolo Colon would be an acceptable pivot.
Elvis Andrus (TEX) and Marcus Semien (OAK) are the top two per dollar plays at shortstop, but without needing to save we’d rather roster someone like Francisco Lindor (CLE) who will face journeyman right-hander Chris Volstad. At $4,300 on FanDuel, Lindor is the second most valuable shortstop option and he’s posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days.
There is a strong chance we see Kike Hernadez (LAD) against a LHP in Coors Field. He’s $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel and could see a lineup spot boost depending on how watered down the Dodgers decide to go. Small in stature, Hernandez has posted a .392 wOBA and .273 ISO in just under 400 PAs since 2015 against LHP. If he’s in there, Kike would be our preferred cash game options. Jean Segura (SEA) is another cheap shortstop that should get a great lineup spot. His opponent, Parker Bridwell, has frequently been a target of ours (5.05 xFIP) who is contact prone.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) and Charlie Blackmon (COL) are duking it out for the top overall projection in the outfield on the last day of the year. Stanton is vying for his 60th home run and will get his chance against a LHP in Max Fried. One of Fried’s strengths is putting the ball on the ground, but Stanton destroys LHP (.431 wOBA, .392 ISO) and is a launch threat on Sunday.
Blackmon and his teammates Gerardo Parra (COL) and Carlos Gonzalez (COL) will be strong cash game plays against Ross Stripling and likely a bullpen game for the Dodgers. With nothing to play for though, there is some potential concern that they might not play, or could be lifted early.
Jay Bruce (CLE) again floods the ranks as the Indians will get to face RHP Chris Volstad. Volstad hasn’t pitched in the league since 2015, but in his small time this year he’s allowed a 20% difference in Hard%-Soft% and has allowed 2.7 HR/9. Chris Taylor (LAD) is OF eligible on both sites, and he’s particularly valuable at sub-$4,000 on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, Nomar Mazara (TEX) and Shin-Soo Choo (TEX) are still stupid cheap and will both get the platoon edge on Daniel Mengden. Andrew McCutchen (PIT) is one of the lone Pirate values as he’ll get the platoon edge on Gio Gonzalez, and likely a few at-bats against the pen. Cutch has posted a .395 wOBA and .240 ISO against LHP since 2015.
Byron Buxton (MIN) is only $3,000 on FanDuel and will have a chance to be very event oriented against Anibal Sanchez. Delino DeShields (TEX), Kyle Schwarber (CHC), and AJ Pollock (ARI) make up just three more of a loaded mid-tier in the OF on Sunday.
- Colorado Rockies
No surprise! The Rockies are the top stack option as they’ll get a bullpen game in Coors Field. Our lone concern will be the lineup that the Rockies run out now that their game has no meaning.
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Chicago Cubs
- Texas Rangers
The Dodgers are in Coors, the Cubs get a young right-hander and the Rangers get the best of both worlds. They’ll face a bad right-handed arm, and also face an excellent environment at home in Texas.
- Cleveland Indians
- Minnesota Twins
7. New York Yankees
The Indians are perhaps the most obvious against Chris Volstad, but the Twins are one of our favorite contrarian stacks on the slate. Anibal Sanchez has an ERA over 6 and has allowed 2.33 HR/9. Stack em up!