October 10 CFB DFS Early Slate: Trust the Prosise
Welcome to the Saturday Early Slate edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
If there’s something you’d like to see added or have any questions, please email us at email@example.com.
*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
Seth Russell (Baylor at Kansas) is easily the top quarterback in this slate and will continue to be until he proves us otherwise. He averages just over 25 pass attempts and five rushes per game yet averages 40.6 fantasy points per game on DraftKings. His production is amazing considering his limited usage, which is why we’re not scared of a game against Kansas. The Bears are projected to score 60.5 points, which is great news for Russell and his 63% market share of touchdowns in non-blowouts. There are no defensive stats that show Kansas will be any match for this Baylor offense. The Jayhawks rank in the bottom 20 in success rate plus, defensive S&P+, passing S&P+, and IsoPPP+. Russell is the safest quarterback on the board with a high upside due to matchup and total. Consider him the best option across every site if you can fit a high priced quarterback in.
Patrick Mahomes II (Texas Tech vs Iowa State) saves you a nice chunk of change on FanDuel and DraftKings, making him a more realistic option in cash games. While he’s no Seth Russell, his matchup and upside are still very good. Iowa State’s defensive stats have benefitted from a weak schedule (Northern Iowa and Kansas) and a lack of a strong passing attack from the opposition. The Iowa State passing S&P+ comes into this game ranked 40th, but we expect that number to drop drastically by season’s end. Mahomes has a high floor due to his volume, throwing 50 times and rushing for a touchdown last game. We’re more likely to roster him due to the savings, and consider him the best bang for your buck on FanDuel and DraftKings.