October 13 CFB DFS Picks: Take a Trip to Taywan
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
If there’s something you’d like to see added or have any questions, please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders (updated as of 9/26/15)
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
Tuesday Slate Note: This is a very unique mid-week slate because of the game on Tuesday between Arkansas State and South Alabama. Currently, FanDuel’s mid-week slate is Tuesday through Friday while DraftKings is Tuesday through Thursday. We have covered every game in this article, so you’re able to play on both sites, but do know there is some risk in locking lineups in this early on a site like FanDuel where there is no late swap. We are going to address any injuries or starter changes via Live Alerts on Thursday.
Arkansas State @ South Alabama
Game Total: 58
Arkansas State Team Total: 31.5
South Alabama Team Total: 26.5
Game Spread: Arkansas State -5
The Arkansas State offense receives a huge boost with the return of Fredi Knighten to the lineup this week. The multi-talented quarterback is making his return from a groin injury that knocked him out for about a month. He’s been pretty bad this season in his two starts against Missouri and USC, but that’s understandable (ranked 20th and 36th respectively in Defensive S&P+). Last season he threw for 3,277 yards and 24 TDs to go along with 779 rushing yards and 11 more touchdowns. The groin injury scares us to an extent and relegates him to tournament status only. He has some of the best upside of the slate, though, as South Alabama’s defense ranks 97th or worse in rushing/passing S&P+ and IsoPPP+. Michael Gordon finally put up a great game last week against Idaho, rushing for over 200 yards and three touchdowns. Now, his game script is projected to be favorable with Arkansas State pegged as five-point favorites. The return of Knighten should intimidate Gordon owners some because Knighten’s running ability may cut into Gordon’s carries. His matchup is great, but the concern over losing touches to Knigthen and opportunity cost leave him as a tournament only play. The Arkansas State passing game really spreads the football around, but J.D. McKissic is the lone star of the group. He’s tiny in stature, but is a big-time PPR threat. His routes are short, but his big play upside receives a boost facing a South Alabama defense with a low IsoPPP+. Tres Houston has a very favorable price on DraftKings making him great for all formats. While McKissic is the short-range receiver, Houston is the deep ball/goal line threat. He has 20 targets on the season (second best on team) with seven of them coming in the red zone. With a tough salary cap on DraftKings we love Houston as a way to fit in stars in this slate.
South Alabama’s offense is only averaging 22 points per game, which limits their Fantasy potential. Their top Fantasy option is their tight end, Gerald Everett. He’s the top target on the team (32), with nine of those targets coming inside the red zone. Everett’s size is legit (6’4, 225), and his price on FanDuel allows for plenty of flexibility in all lineup formats. The only other option to target from this team is Xavier Johnson, the top running back. Johnson has been great in three games this season, but has also been taken out of games twice due to negative game script. In those two games, he was facing two tough opponents (Nebraska and NC State) that took the running game away from South Alabama by racing out to early leads. The game script concerns are lessened this week, and Johnson should see similar touches to what he saw against Troy and San Diego State (20 in each). The Arkansas State defense is weakest against the run coming in at a very below average rank of 90th in rushing S&P+.