October 3 Late Slate CFB DFS Picks: May the Fournette be with You
Welcome to the Saturday Late Slate edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
If there’s something you’d like to see added or have any questions, please email us at email@example.com.
*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
2015 S&P+ Data
We’ve begun to carefully integrate Football Outsider’s advanced statistics for the 2015 season. Obviously, most teams have only played 4 games this season (max) – a small sample size when compared to a full season worth of game statistics (12-13 games) – which is why we’ll continue to reference 2014 data. However, there will be instances where 2015 data is useful and relevant and that’s when we’ll sprinkle it into our analysis.
Before we dive into the top players, we want to stress how bad the weather is going to be on the east coast. Rainfall will be in measured in inches and winds could reach over 30mph. DailyRoto meteoroligist, Mark Paquette, has listed out these games for us where deteriorating weather conditions will introduce player risk:
Notre Dame at Clemson (8:00 PM ET) will be a mud-bowl.
As of early Thursday morning, the worst region in terms of rain on Saturday looks to be the western Carolinas, eastern and northern Georgia and extreme southern South Carolina.
The forecast for the hurricane has slowed a bit, which is good for college football as it remains offshore on Saturday, but the rain mentioned above will still fall (not directly associated with the hurricane).
Strong winds, in excess of 20 mph, will be felt from southern NJ down through the Carolinas and Georgia, strongest at the coast, but even inland areas will experience winds in excess of 20 mph.
Kyle Allen (Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State) and Dak Prescott (Mississippi State at Texas A&M) represent the top plays at the quarterback position. We have Allen ranked a bit higher than Prescott since his production is more consistent and easier to project, thanks to his context (offensive minded head coach and an awesome arsenal of weapons at the wide receiver position). Now that SEC play has started for the Aggies, backup quarterback Kyler Murray isn’t a threat to Allen’s job. He’s going to have a role in the offense as a wildcat option, but the offense belongs to Allen now. If you want direct access to the Aggies offense (team total of 33 points), Allen is the main source.
Prescott’s rushing volume has taken a pretty substantial hit this season. He continues to throw the ball at a nice rate (averaging 35 passing attempts this season), but he’s only averaging 7.5 carries this season. In 2014, Prescott averaged 16 carries per game. Historically, Prescott hasn’t been as skilled through the air (61.5 completion percentage/eight yards per attempt) as he has been through the ground (5.1 yards per carry), so we’re a bit concerned that his upside is hampered now. He’s going to have to play at a higher pace in order to keep up with the Aggies, which could give him more passing opportunities. Our main focus on this slate is to pay up for running backs, so our interest in these top plays in cash games is minimal. On sites where Allen’s price isn’t prohibitive, give him a look in cash games. Both Prescott and Allen are better suited for tournaments games this evening.