October 30 NBA Picks: Don’t Be Afraid of the Boogie Man
This weekend when you go to flip the channels late at night and wash away any ill feelings for DFS, you’ll undoubtedly be bombarded by horror films that you have never heard of in celebration of Halloween (I advise just going to Netflix). Around this time of year, everyone has a story to tell – scary or not. The great thing about horror movies is that they have a lot of room to be successful. A movie can be terrifying, but lack plot. One can have plot, but lack the elements of fear that we crave when starting a “scary” movie. Some have both, lots have neither. That’s why this weekend when you sit down to pick a movie, I want you to venture past The Shining and whatever other age old horror movie you typically default to on Halloween. Give the unknown a chance…you might be surprised, or better yet, scared.
Note: These picks are made well before any news comes out for the given day of NBA. Be sure to follow along with updates throughout the day to make sure these guys will touch the court!
PG: Steph Curry
Steph identifies with some of the best horror films ever because he is downright scary to opposing defenders. Sure it’s Steph Curry, so you don’t need much prodding to put him on your team, but I’ll try my best. The Warriors will be on the road tonight but playing in a close and high scoring game (O/U 215.0) against the Houston Rockets. In past years we’ve slowly become accustomed to not playing point guards against the Rockets due to Patrick Beverley, but I don’t think that has any merit against Steph Curry. Coming off a dominating performance in the season opener, it’s important to point out that despite being primarily a shooter, Curry has a safe floor and elite upside (as you might have seen when he dropped 40 points the other night). As the sites are still adjusting to the early rotations, there is plenty of value to make sure you can get him into your lineup. I’d do it.
Looking elsewhere? Try Ricky Rubio.
SG: Eric Bledsoe
Eric Bledsoe found his way into my lineups a lot last season and he should find his way into at least some of yours tonight. Bledsoe has a matchup at home against the Portland Trailblazers in a game with a small spread and a total over 200 (0/U 206.5). The great part about Bledsoe is that he has an immense upside given his ability to rack up stats in every category, however, he’s still been a fairly volatile player in his time in the league. He was plagued in the season opener by his shooting, only being able to hit four of 12 shots, and missing both balls from beyond the arc. Because of the immediacy of NBA games, I believe players are even more prone to yielding to recency bias and losing sight of Bledsoe despite a solid matchup. He won’t break the bank.
Looking elsewhere? Try Kobe Bryant.
SF: Nikola Mirotic
This play is site specific to FanDuel, but Mirotic should be a lock for your cash games. With the incoming of Fred Hoiberg and Mirotic’s move to the starting lineup, he’s been Fantasy gold. The Bulls are already playing their third game of the season and in the first two, Mirotic was well worth his salary. He’s posted double digit shot attempts in both games and has come close to hauling in a double-double each time, falling a rebound short in both games. He’s affordable, so he doesn’t need much to pay off his price tag, but the fact that he’s getting consistent minutes (greater than 25 in both games) and opportunity is exciting. If you’re playing tournaments, I think he’s a wise fade, as he should garner hefty ownership percentages, but he’s a great play in cash games, especially given the positional scarcity.
Looking elsewhere? Try Trevor Ariza.
PF: Nerlens Noel
You might notice a common theme in these picks has been high upside. Noel fits into that category thanks to his ability to score, rebound, steal and block shots. The kid can really do it all and he plays for a young 76ers team that is an underdog at home. The total doesn’t drive me crazy, as it doesn’t appear this game will play in with the top scores of the night, but Noel should be well worth his price. In his first game of the season, he came with a much lower ownership level than many anticipated and flourished alongside Jahlil Okafor. The 76ers can be a tough team to follow, but Noel is going to get guaranteed minutes assuming he stays out of foul trouble and he can contribute in many different ways.
Looking elsewhere? Try Kenneth Faried.
No I didn’t just put him here because his nickname is “Boogie.” But, the Boogieman came to play today. Cousins is one of the most supremely talented players in the league, the hard part is getting him to play like it. He’s been a frustrating player in his time in the league, but with focus, he can dominate. He’ll be playing in one of the highest scoring games tonight against a weak Lakers frontcourt that is primed to give up points. In his first game this season, Boogie didn’t waste any time, scoring 32 points on 21 shots and hauling in 13 rebounds. He has the potential to do this every single night, and I fully expect him to tonight.
Looking elsewhere? Try Andre Drummond.