October 31 CFB DFS Early Slate: Matt Davis, Your Must Start Mustang
Welcome to Saturday’s early slate edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
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*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders (updated as of 10/24/15)
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
With no Trevone Boykin or Seth Russell in this slate, Matt Davis (SMU vs Tulsa) takes over as the top play of the early slate. Davis has so many great things going for him against Tulsa that he completely bypasses some of the big names and high priced options. Davis’ matchup is as good as it gets facing Tulsa’s 91st ranked passing S&P+ defense. Both teams play at a fast pace (Tulsa ranks 1st/SMU 30th in adjusted pace) and want to push the tempo of the game. Everyone is going to want as much exposure as possible in this game and the best guy to get that exposure with is Davis. He has a ridiculous 76.9% market share of SMU’s offensive touchdowns in 2015. With all of this being said, it’s clear to us that Davis should be the first guy you put in your lineup no matter what the format.
Next In Line:
Dane Evans (Tulsa at SMU) is the other quarterback in this game and would also be listed as a top option if it were not for some shaky play in recent games. Evans is not the running threat that Davis is, but he’s going to throw it around 40 times per game (averaging 39.7 passing attempts per game in 2015). Evans’ lone issue in Fantasy point production is his ability to find the end zone. He has just a 53.3% market share of Tulsa’s offensive touchdowns, which is very low for a DFS quarterback. There’s reason to believe this number is on the way up though. Zack Langer, the team’s starting running back, did not play last game and his status is uncertain for the SMU game. He has 11 touchdowns this season leaving just three other touchdowns that did not involve Evans or Langer. Evans was involved in four of the five touchdowns scored against Memphis last week without Langer. That is the kind of market share we expect to continue with Langer likely out this week.