October 8 CFB DFS Picks: Can’t Miss the Golden Ticket
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
If there’s something you’d like to see added or have any questions, please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders (updated as of 9/26/15)
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
Southern Methodist @ Houston
Game Total: 74
SMU Team Total: 24.5
Houston Team Total: 49.5
Game Spread: Houston -25
This game consists of the highest total and the fastest pace of play, so targeting this matchup in cash games is a very smart idea. The Houston offense is projected to score a ton of touchdowns. Greg Ward Jr. is the leader of this offense, throwing for 265 yards per game, while rushing for an astonishing 118 more in 2015. He has a 68% market share of team touchdowns so far this season (15 of 22). Ward is an elite tournament option because of his high price and high upside, but he’s also cash game viable due to size of slate and high floor. Kenneth Farrow is the clear benefactor of a high total and game script (Houston -25). The issue with using Farrow in cash games is his lack of touchdowns this season (two) and usage compared to explosiveness (19 touches per game, 5.2 yards per carry). 5.2 yards per carry is a good average, but it’s inflated because of his huge game against Tulsa last week (19/159/0). SMU’s defense is bad enough to make Farrow a great tournament option, but we don’t consider him to be cash viable in this slate. The wide receivers for Houston provided great value last week and two of those receiving options remain in our cross hairs this week: Demarcus Ayers and Chance Allen. They represent the top two Houston weapons when it comes to receptions, yardage, and targets, but come with very different price tags. Ayers is the top receiver for the Cougars and is priced as such. He’s not on the level of Juju Smith in this slate, but is a great pivot option from JuJu in tournament games. 12 of his 39 targets have come in the red zone, which is seven more than the next best Houston receiver. Chance Allen comes into this game with 27 targets, or seven targets per game, but is rarely used in the red zone (four targets). Allen’s upside is limited, but he still makes for a solid cash game option.