Tonight’s slate is an interesting 11-gamer with more than a quarter million dollars in prizes available in the NHL DFS streets, and today I’ll attempt to dive into some advanced DvP to highlight potentially over-looked spots or spots to avoid on tonight’s slate. Our projections and stack rankings serve as the cornerstone for most of my tournament builds but tonight there are just 2.5 DraftKings points that separate the Top 10 stacks or the equivalent of one phantom assist.
Our projections utilize macro concepts for projections which include individual performance, opponent, home versus road splits, and rest (back-to-back vs rested) to project performance, but there is another layer that can be fun to look at in tournaments. In the NHL, home teams get the last change enabling them to dictate what forward units or defenseman to match against opposing teams’ top lines at 5v5. For teams that have elite defenseman or shutdown lines, like the Nashville Predators, this can lead to larger than average home and road splits.
I’ve tracked performance for every game this season, along with how many DraftKings points each defensive matchup is giving up to different lines at home and on the road. The data is still small in sample and subject to variance but can be a fun way to help with things we would otherwise flip a coin over. Here are a few interesting tidbits from tonight’s slate.
- The Blackhawks have been a poor defensive club but have been closer to average at home. Corey Crawford will sit and while many will target Cam Ward, the Predators are on a back-to-back. Despite being the toughest defensive matchup on the slate, the Predators have actually been susceptible to first lines when on the road, and the Ottawa top line got to them last night. This could be a potentially sneaky spot to target Patrick Kane and whichever rotating linemates he ends up with. Given the lack of consistency with linemates and PP correlation, this stack is more suitable for large field GPPs than it is for a small field, high buy-in tournament.