Preseason Week 1 DraftKings Picks, News and Notes

Each week of the NFL DFS preseason we’ll be outlining some of the important situations to monitor that impact the roster construction for that week’s games.

In Week 1 the typical starters and veterans will rest leaving ample playing time for the unproven rookies, backups, and practice squad team members. We also know that it is important to target thin positional depth charts which will likely lead to more playing time for the eligible players.

At a team level, we are looking at positional scoring averages for QBs of roughly 15 DK points, RBs 25 DK points, WRs 35 DK points, and TEs 10 DK points. These averages could then be used to cascade down based on depth.

Positional Depth

Washington: 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 12 WRs, 8 TEs

New England: 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 11 WRs, 8 TEs

Pittsburgh: 4 QBs, 8 RBs, 11 WRs, 5 TEs

Philadelphia: 3 QBs, 8 RBs, 11 WRs, 7 TEs

Tennessee: 3 QBs, 6 RBs, 11 WRs, 7 TEs

Buffalo: 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 12 WRs, 7 TEs

Dallas: 4 QBs, 5 RBs, 15 WRs, 6 TEs

Atlanta: 3 QBs, 6 RBs, 12 WRs, 5 TEs

Detroit: 3 QBs, 6 RBs, 13 WRs, 6 TEs

Arizona: 3 QBs, 5 RBs, 12 WRs, 5 TEs

Preseason Week 1 News and Notes

Washington Football Team

• Rivera expects the starters to play but doesn’t elaborate much further beyond discussing consistency between first-team, second-team, etc. That would mean Cam Sims, Steven Sims and Dyami Brown playing with the Heinecke unit

New England

• Cam Newton is expected to start and could play a quarter. Mac Jones will likely play two quarters.
• Jeff Howe notes Stevenson could have a big game due to playing time while also noting JJ Taylor could get some run
• Howe also notes its unclear if Agholor will play, and highlights Harry, Olszewski, Nixon and Wilkinson as depth WRs to watch

Pittsburgh

• Ben Roethlisburger won’t play. Last week Mason Rudolph played 1.5 quarters with Dwayne Haskins playing 2 quarters.
• The snaps are expected to look similar to the HOF game. James Washington, Ray Ray McLoud and Anthony Johnson all played > 25 snaps, though James Washington has seen reduced practice reps after a holdout complaint.
• Tomlin “won’t hold back” Najee Harris.
• Washington, McLoud, Snell and Ballage notable names missing practice this week

Philadelphia

• Jalen Hurts will get the start. The Eagles have just 3 QBs active including veteran Joe Flacco. Nick Mullens could play the majority of the 2nd half.
• Devonta Smith and John Hightower are not expected to play. Quez Watkins and JJ Arcega Whiteside could get reps with both first and second team players.

Tennessee Titans

• Logan Woodside is expected to start as the QB2 as Tannehill will not play.
• With Derrick Henry also sitting the Titans should have just four RBs active for the game. Darrynton Evans will start and is the most talented but Hill, McNichols and Sargent should see some opportunity as well.

Buffalo Bills

• As expected Josh Allen and a number of starters won’t play.
• At RB it is probably Matt Breida, Antonio Williams and Taiwan Jones.
• For wide receiver, its unlikely Diggs, Sanders, Beasley or Gabriel Davis get extended playing time.

Dallas

• Like Pittsburgh, Dallas is expected to use a similar rotation to the Hall of Fame Game.
• Dallas has just 5 RBs and don’t expect much from Zeke or Pollard. Rico Dowdle and Jaquon Hardy both played 20+ snaps. Simi Fehoko, Malik Turner, Noah Brown and Cedrick Wilson lead the WRs.

Atlanta

• Matt Ryan will not play. AJ McCarron is listed as the QB2 in a positional battle with Felipe Franks.
• Atlanta projects to run a lot with Hawkins and Huntley expected to receive the most carries.
• Christian Blake and Olamide Zaccheus are the WR3/4 on the team with Tajae Sharpe and Chris Rowland expected to be behind them.

Detroit Lions

• Jared Goff slated to start but with limited reps
• Perriman and Cephus did not scrimmage on Saturday while Tyrell Williams was also out but due to rest. Kalif Raymond and Amon Ra St Brown could start and play into the 2nd quarter.
• With RB injuries D’Andre Swift (out), Jamaal Williams (veteran) likely limited and Jefferson a question mark they will have a short rotation that may feature Dedrick Mills

Arizona

• Cardinals have some COVID issues include James Conner and Andy Isabella.
• Like the Lions, Kyler Murray may play but limited reps for the starters. Speculation is Eno Benjamin could receive a substantial run at RB.

Strategy Nuggets

I think it makes sense to start at QB and build out from there since correlation will be so important with only a handful of touchdowns to go around.

At quarterback, we can safely project Mac Jones, Taylor Heinecke and Dwayne Haskins to receive the most snaps. The Patriots have notoriously given plenty of work to players like Jimmy G, Stidham and I’d expect Jones to get a long look as well. Jones can be rostered with N’Keal Harry, Olszewski, Nixon and Wilkinson. Heinecke stacks were mentioned above and could also include Antonio Gandy-Golden. Anthony Johnson is a good target for Haskins stacks.

Jalen Hurts is intriguing because his overall talent and rushing upside could provide value in a single quarter. If he truly hasn’t impressed the Eagles enough its possible he could even have some playing time upside beyond that. Reagor, Fulgham, Quez Watkins and Arcega-Whiteside all are young, talented, but could still receive playing time.

RB Targets

• NE: Stevenson, Taylor
• WFT: Williams
• PHI: Gainwell, Huntley
• PIT: Harris, McFarland