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September 10 MLB DFS: Phillin Strasty
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Welcome to September 10 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 10 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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September 10 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:43 Starting Pitcher
08:08 Catcher
11:06 First Base
14:51 Second Base
18:12 Third Base
21:15 Shortstop
23:16 Outfield
27:20 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 10 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Stephen Strasburg (WAS) and Jacob deGrom (NYM) once again share a slate as the top SP options. This time Strasburg gets the softer matchup with the Phillies who rank 24th in wRC+ against RHP with the third highest K Rate in the league. Strasburg has been exceptional of late with 21 scoreless innings over his last three starts and lower than usual temperatures in Washington, D.C. have the park projecting a bit more favorable than the usual baseline. Strasburg has the lowest implied run total against (three) and ties for deGrom with the most projected strikeouts (8.1). Strasburg is our cash game building block at the starting pitcher position. deGrom is a viable pivot in GPPs at a similar price tag against a Reds’ offense that has been struggling in New York. You’d need some serious value to open up to pair deGrom and Strasburg together with a combined $24,300 tag on DraftKings.

 

On DraftKings, finding a second SP to pair with Strasburg brings an interesting path. The first is J.A. Happ (TOR) in a game where the implied total against seems unusually low (3.6) against a Tigers’ lineup that leads MLB in wRC+ against LHP this season but has lost JD Martinez and Justin Upton from the lineup, making them far more vulnerable to LHP. The return of Miguel Cabrera helps the offense but Happ is reasonably priced, has strikeout capability, and is a monstrous favorite (-230). The other option is playing another strikeout-oriented LHP with a much worse implied total against (4.9) in Jordan Montgomery (NYY). The Rangers have been vulnerable to LHP all season (17th in wRC+, 24.5 K Rate against) and the strikeout rates are particularly appealing. The tricky thing with Montgomery is he’s been a bit more reverse platoon oriented from a DFS perspective as his change-up generates more strikeouts from RHBs than LHBs. The two project as similar values with Montgomery’s softer price tag making lineup building a bit easier.

The secondary targets that project slightly worse than Montgomery and Happ but come with similar mid-tier price tags include: Michael Wacha (STL), Rick Porcello (BOS), and Jason Vargas (KC). Porcello is the most intriguing of the group against a strikeout prone Rays’ offense while Wacha and Vargas have struggled mightily of late.

In tournaments, Madison Bumgarner (SF) and Kyle Hendricks (CHC) are potentially overpriced options with good matchups that could challenge Strasburg or deGrom at far lower ownerships.

Catcher

Buster Posey (SF) is the top catcher value across the industry. San Francisco once again finds themselves in an exceedingly friendly context getting that big park shift playing in Chicago and adding the DH. Of course, the main benefit is the horrific White Sox pitching staff. Carson Fulmer will make the start in what could turn into a bullpen game. Fulmer had a 5.39 FIP at AAA. Let that sync in. He gave up 1.29 HR/9 at that level. The bullpen behind him is terrible with the White Sox having traded their best relief arms. They’ve got a 5.56 xFIP over the second half of the season, which is outlier high.

On DK, Gary Sanchez (NYY) is a viable spend due to the immense power upside he holds against AJ Griffin (2.22 HR/9) in Texas, especially if you’re unsure where to spend and want to diversify off the Giants bats a little bit.

There’s a pretty large gap following Posey and Sanchez. The best cheaper alternatives are Salvador Perez (KC), James McCann (DET), and Chris Gimenez (MIN).

First Base

Miguel Cabrera (DET) returned from suspension yesterday and is really cheap on both sites at $2,900. It’s simply too low of a cost as a road three hole hitter with the platoon edge and positive park shift while facing a pitcher prone to yield power.

Across both sites, the Tampa Bay duo of Lucas Duda and Logan Morrison (TB) rates positively, although Morrison is better as a price play on FD. We’ve long admired Duda’s power against RHP, and he’s putting together a campaign similar to what he did in 2012, currently sitting on 28 HRs and a .298 ISO. Rick Porcello is a solid overall pitcher but yields plenty of hard contact.

The main alternatives to Duda are site dependent. On DK, Jose Abreu (CHW) is priced down because he faces Madison Bumgarner. However, Bumgarner has been somewhat shaky or at least moved a bit further from elite status since returning from the DL and gets a severe negative park shift.

On FD, Justin Smoak (TOR) has his price tag held in check, making him the best way to get access to a high 5.4 IRT at home against the Tigers and Anibal Sanchez (7.07 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 2.67 HR/9).

Greg Bird (NYY) is an excellent tournament play. Lineup spot will keep ownership way down, but he has the requisite power in a matchup that will aid power. Plus, being on the road for an offense that could go off mitigates some of the lineup spot issues.

Eric Hosmer (KC) is a secondary value in a MIN-KC game that has a high total (10) despite the spacious Royals home park.

Second Base

The easy move at second base is to get your Giants exposure with an affordable Joe Panik (SF). This is especially the case on FD.

On DK, you get a couple of underpriced pivots in Jonathan Villar (MIL) and Ian Kinsler (DET). The scoring environment and floor for Villar aren’t enticing, but the HR/SB combination out of a road leadoff spot for that cost is. Kinsler has a big positive park shift and is also a road leadoff hitter, against a LHP. He’s hit for a .370 wOBA and .197 ISO in that split since 2015, although you may try to pivot off him if using JA Hap as one of your starting pitchers.

Daniel Murphy (WAS) is perpetually underpriced on FD given his splits since 2015 (.378 wOBA, .223 ISO).

If spending up in tournaments, Brian Dozier (MIN) faces Jason Vargas, a fly ball oriented LHP. For the second straight season Dozier has had a power surge backed by boosting his hard-hit aerial contact.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson (TOR) is by far the top projected 3B on the slate, and our model has him as a worthwhile spend if he’s in the lineup. Donaldson has missed the last couple of games due to illness. Opposing pitcher Anibal Sanchez has given up 10 HRs over his last five starts since August.

If Donaldson isn’t in the lineup or you’re simply unable to afford him, there are pivots on both sites. On FD it’s awful tempting to punt with Pablo Sandoval (SF) given the amazing context and near minimum price tag. The problem is he’s not good, and has a very low 15-day Hard%. If that scares you off, both Nick Castellanos (DET) and Mike Moustakas (KC) have plus HR upside in their respective splits and hover just over $3,000.

On DK, the value options are a bit more muddled due to the pricing over there. In a vacuum, Sandoval and Castellanos are still in play in cash games, but their value is dragged closer to the positional average. Evan Longoria (TB) also emerges in the cash game conversation; the move from Tropicana Field to Fenway Park is particularly beneficial for RHBs.

Shortstop

We hate to be repetitive, but this is another position where the easy move is to default to a Giants option. In this case it’s particularly justified as Brandon Crawford‘s (SF) lineup spot (4) and power (.184 ISO against RHP since 2015) are a combination that gives him tangibly more upside than his peers at a scarce position. He’s easily affordable on both sites.

Didi Gregorius (NYY) carries a higher ISO baseline, making him an excellent tournament pivot at a slightly higher cost on DK.

Over on FD, there’s not much direct competition for Crawford at his price point. Instead, getting all the way up to Trea Turner (WAS) is the best way to differentiate yourself in GPPs at this position.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) carries the top overall projection in the OF, but a R/R matchup, negative Hard% delta, and appropriate price tag keep him out of the conversation in cash games. Following Stanton, we don’t have many of the traditional studs, instead opting for mid-tier values on good contexts.

On both sites, Steve Pearce (TOR) is a primary target if he’s able to find his way back into the lineup (missed yesterday’s game with a back injury). Pearce is one of the easiest ways to get access to a Toronto offense that has significant power upside against Anibal Sanchez. While he’s known for his contributions against LHP, Pearce has a solid overall .185 ISO, which is in line with his career mark. Teammate Jose Bautista (TOR) is near a Top 5 value as well.

Following Pearce we get some site specific options. Over on DK, the entire Pirates Outfield of Marte/McCutchen/Polanco averages just $3,000. Everyone is in play there in cash games against a struggling Wacha 

Comparatively speaking the prices on those Pirates are higher on FD, and it may make sense to spend a little more on players with higher expected team IRTS – like Denard Span (SF), Byron Buxton (MIN) (massive second half, large positive 15-day Hard% delta), and maybe Kyle Schwarber (CHC), assuming he’s back as a starter (has sat some recently).

Kevin Kiermaier (TB) makes for a nice low owned tournament option given a road leadoff spot, positive park shift, and positive 15-day Hard% delta. If you want power in tournaments and are willing to get it from a poor lineup spot, Brandon Moss (KC) (.234 ISO against RHP since 2015) has a nice matchup against Bartolo Colon.

Stacks

Tier One

1) New York Yankees

The Yankees are the clear top stack with a guaranteed ninth innings in Arlington. The temperatures in Texas aren’t abnormally hot but the early slate is mostly filled with milder hitting environments and the Yankees are getting an extreme fly ball pitcher in a plus environment. The Yankees are only available on DraftKings main slate.

Tier Two

2) San Francisco Giants

3) Toronto Blue Jays

4) Washington Nationals

5) Miami Marlins

The Giants and Blue Jays are the more cost-effective stacks. Both teams get the benefit of facing watered down bullpens in favorable hitting environments. While the Giants are cheaper and rank slightly higher, the Blue Jays have a bit more power upside against Anibal Sanchez and his struggles against RH power. The Nationals are the most talented offense in this tier and get a strong matchup with the Phillies but likely just eight innings of offense and a potentially watered down lineup (often resting veterans on a day game after a night game) with heftier price tags on key players makes them a more difficult stack.

Tier Three

6) Kansas City Royals

7) Tampa Bay Rays

8) Boston Red Sox

9) Chicago Cubs

The Royals are another intriguing cheaper stack with a matchup against Bartolo Colon that can help unlock some power upside that isn’t usually there.

 

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