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September 12 MLB DFS: Over Yonder
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Welcome to September 12 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 12 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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September 12 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
08:44 Catcher
10:49 First Base
14:10 Second Base
16:22Third Base
18:53 Shortstop
21:32 Outfield
24:32 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 12 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Once again we have the Clayton Kershaw (LAD) and Corey Kluber (CLE) slate and once again Kluber gets the benefit of the slightly stronger matchup. The Tigers lineups are extremely right-handed these days and lacking major league depth. Kershaw gets a Giants’ lineup that he’s dominated for years but Kershaw showed some rust last time out while still building the pitch count. We still prefer Kluber to Kershaw despite Kershaw drawing a slightly lower implied run total against (2.5 vs. 2.6) as we’re projecting Kluber for a more dominant strikeout rate. With the price tags similar, we view Kluber as the building block in cash games.

After Kluber and Kershaw, Jose Quintana (CHC), Justin Verlander (HOU), and Gio Gonzalez (WAS) round out the next tier. They all draw favorable matchups with Quintana against a depleted Mets lineup, Verlander getting a big park shift in his favor in Anaheim, and Gonzalez facing the Braves. For price and matchup, Quintana is the best target of the group and represents one of the stronger pivots off Kluber or Kershaw in GPPs. Quintana has occasionally flashed the elite K upside to challenge those two, can work deep into games, and gets strong pitching conditions in Chicago. This tier is difficult to pair with Kluber in cash games on DraftKings.

The pairing on DraftKings with Kluber needs to generate some salary relief given the hefty price tags on the studs and the shaky state of pitching on the slate. Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) looks like the best combination of salary relief and strikeout upside. Rodriguez has a tough home park for LHP but has been far better against RHBs in his career (.303 wOBA, 21.8 K Rate) and it’s held again this year (.304 wOBA, 26 K Rate). He faces an Athletics offense that ranks 22nd in wRC+ against LHP and has the fourth highest K Rate against LHP (24.2 percent) of any team in baseball. At just $6,700, Rodriguez checks most of the boxes as your salary relief target to pair with Kluber.

Secondary targets for cash games behind Rodriguez, but moreso for tournaments, include: Lance Lynn ($8,400) and Johnny Cueto ($7,300). The Cueto price tag is almost hard to fathom but the Dodgers’ offense, even amid an extended slump, still projects as really difficult for strikeouts from RHP. At that price though, Cueto is a pretty strong GPP target. Other secondary GPP targets include Gerrit Cole (PIT) and Sonny Gray (NYY) who are just a bit overpriced despite drawing very favorable matchups for strikeouts. Julio Teheran‘s (ATL) late season resurgence also makes him interesting if the Nationals throw out a more RH heavy lineup.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY) represents the top projected scorer at the catcher position. He’ll have the platoon edge against Blake Snell with an appropriate price tag around the industry. We prefer him in tournaments tonight.

This position feels like it’s in a wait and see approach tonight from a cash game perspective. For example, if Robinson Chirinos (TEX) gets a decent lineup spot again (hit fifth last night) with the platoon edge, he’d become a great value on DK where the price tag is sitting at $3,500. The Rangers have a slate high IRT that’s approaching six runs, so you want exposure to that offense tonight.

If we don’t get Chirinos in a good lineup spot, it might be best to simply punt this position with catchers like Austin Hedges (SD) (on DK), Chris Gimenez (MIN) (sometimes gets a decent lineup spot vs. LHP) and Stephen Vogt (MIL) ($2,100 on FD – looks like the best route on that site).

First Base

It’s a good slate to save some resources at first base, especially in cash games. Yonder Alonso (SEA) has been a bit cold of late, but his price tags are excellent ($3,700 on DK and $2,800 on FD) and the context is perfect (in Texas with the platoon edge against a home run prone pitcher). Other cheap routes on DK are Eric Thames (MIL), who has a more challenging matchup vs. Gerrit Cole but has a $3,500 price tag, and Wil Myers (SD) who’s just $3,300 in an AL park. Thames has been back in the leadoff spot vs. RHP of late.

The top projected scorers at the position are Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) and Joey Votto (CIN). Goldy is at home with more challenging matchup (Jon Gray) and Votto is on the road (steep negative park shift) facing Lance Lynn, who has very wide splits (.350 wOBA, .196 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2015). These two are playable in tournaments. We also have high upside options like Edwin Encarnacion (CLE), Anthony Rizzo (CHC) and Rhys Hoskins (PHI) with the platoon edge in their respective matchups. That entire group is very intriguing in tournaments.

 

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) will have the platoon edge in a matchup against Travis Wood. We have a .245 ISO in this split for Dozier, and Wood has allowed a .378 wOBA and .204 ISO to RHBs since 2015. Dozier is expensive but he’s worth the price tag in all formats.

There are other routes you can explore if you’re unable to fit Dozier. On FD, we have two mid-tier targets that rate as strong values. Robinson Cano (SEA) and Eduardo Nunez (BOS) have nice matchups will have the platoon edge in good matchups and they’re in great hitting environments.

Daniel Murphy (WSH) is facing a pitcher that struggles mightily with LHBs (Teheran). We like Murphy in tournaments. Jose Ramirez (CLE) is expensive but worthy of tournament consideration as well given how well he’s been hitting of late and a plus matchup.

Third Base

Kris Bryant (CHC) represents the top projected scorer at third base, and he’s $4,500 on DK and $3,800 on FD – those are price tags that feel just a little light.

The only challenge we see with Bryant in cash games is that while the price tags are pretty good, you still might not be able to fit him. It’s okay to use cheaper targets at the position. Eduardo Escobar (MIN) (on FD), Kyle Seager (SEA) and Jake Lamb (ARI) (on FD) all fit the bill. They’ll have the platoon edge in their respective matchups, but the best matchup goes to Moustakas as he’s facing Dylan Covey (13% K rate, 3.14 HR/9 allowed in 14 appearances/eight starts). For pure salary relief, consider Sean Rodriguez (PIT) for just $2,500 on DK.

Shortstop

Trea Turner (WSH) and Francisco Lindor (CLE) represent the top projected scorers at the shortstop position, but price tags take them away from the cash game conversation. Elvis Andrus (TEX) projects similarly to these two with a more manageable price tag on DK ($4,200), where he enters the cash game conversation. Andrus has generated a 29.5% HHR over the L15 and he’ll have the platoon edge once again for the offense with the highest IRT in the slate.

The other routes at the position are cheaper. Jean Segura (SEA) projects as our best SS value on FD where he’s $3,300. Xander Bogaerts (BOS) is $200 cheaper than Segura on FD and he has a matchup against the struggling Sean Manaea. Chad Pinder (OAK) is a fine source of salary relief on DK where he has a punt price ($2,800). We like Eduardo Rodriguez, but he’s a fly ball pitcher that’s prone to the long ball in a great park for RH power.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) and his massive power stroke meets Nick Pivetta, who’s allowed a 20% hard minus soft hit rate this season. Even without the platoon edge, Stanton represents the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. The only challenge with Stanton is a price tag that’s difficult to fit in cash games, especially on FD.

There’s a big group of strong OF values behind Stanton, which is another reason why it’s okay to fade him in cash games. Rajai Davis (BOS) (potentially leading off with the platoon edge and he’s really cheap everywhere), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Starling Marte (PIT) (on FD), Eric Thames (MIL) (dirt cheap on DK), Kyle Schwarber (CHI) ($3,700 on DK), Delino DeShields (TEX) (on FD), Dexter Fowler (STL) (on DK) and Sean Rodriguez (PIT) (OF/3B eligible on DK) is a big group of values that are viable across all formats. The Pirates OFers will have the platoon edge in Milwaukee, which is a massive upgrade in hitting environment. McCutchen profiles the best from the group, but Marte will run against anyone and he leads off for this offense.

Nelson Cruz (SEA) and Mookie Betts (BOS) also rate well in their respective contexts, but their price tags are difficult to fit in cash games. Cruz is the exception on DK where he’s $4,700, but our preference is to jam the cheaper options in the OF in cash games. We like these two in tournaments.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Seattle Mariners

2) Miami Marlins

3) Boston Red Sox

The Mariners get a big park upgrade in Texas and are reasonably priced for a matchup with Miguel Gonzalez. They should represent the chalk on this slate on both sites. The Marlins are a difficult stack to make work with Giancarlo Stanton‘s hefty price tag but this is precisely what makes them so enticing in a big park upgrade against a fly ball pitcher who has struggled mightily with RH power this season. The Red Sox are also pretty intriguing given their lineup stacks up so much better against LHP and Sean Manaea has really struggled down the stretch. Throw in a brutal A’s bullpen behind him and reasonable price tags on the non-Betts platoon pieces and they’re an interesting target.

Tier Two

4) Texas Rangers

5) Cleveland Indians

6) Colorado Rockies

7) Minnesota Twins

8) Arizona Diamondbacks

The second tier is filled with expensive teams that may carry lower ownership due to the price tags on a slate with Kluber and Kershaw. In general, we prefer one-off pieces than full stacks in this tier as a way to complement cheaper stacks.

Contrarian Target:

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates are so incredibly cheap on both sites and they’re getting the big park boost plus facing a LHP which most of their lineup is more geared to hit LHP (Marte, McCutchen, Rodriguez are all substantially better against LHP). The Pirates are the perfect stack to pair with a chalkier Kluber in GPPs because they’ll carry lower ownership and allow for some more expensive one-offs.