FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
September 12 MLB DFS: Mookie Bombs
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
Print Friendly

 

September 12 MLB DFS Show Outline: 

0:51 Starting Pitchers
8:14 Catchers
9:41 First Base
11:36 Second Base
14:15 Shortstops
15:44  Third Base
17:21 Outfield
21:08  Cash Game Roster Construction and Stacks

1x


September 12 MLB DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) David Price (BOS)

2) Gerrit Cole (PIT)

3) Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

4) Jeff Samardzija (SF)

5) Kyle Hendricks (CHC)

Tier Two

6) Francisco Liriano (PIT)

Tier Three

7) Rafael Montero (NYM)

We have a much larger first tier of starting pitchers than usual as we get several very good pitchers but no one in the truly elite class. David Price (BOS) kicks off our rankings as a very heavy home favorite (-220). Price carries more run prevention risk than you’d expect out of a top ranked starting pitcher (allows hard contact and is facing a power hitting team in a hitter’s park). However, the Orioles surprisingly rank 27th in wRC+ against LHP. With that in mind along with Price’s ability to pitch deep into games and rack up Ks, he’s a solid top play but not a must play. We like him best on DraftKings.

Our second ranked starting pitcher is Gerrit Cole (PIT), who represents a good complement to Price on DraftKings. There’s some risk in using Cole coming off the DL, but both the DK price tag and Cole’s context mitigates that risk. He’ll face a Phillies team that ranks dead last in wRC+ against RHP with the seventh highest K rate.

With a jumbled first tier, it makes sense to diversify where logical based on pricing, and we’d probably stray from our top overall pitcher (Price) on FanDuel as a result. There you can get Jeff Samardzija (SF) for much cheaper. While Shark has had a disappointing season, a home matchup against a hapless Padres team boosts him quite a bit. Samardzija is the heaviest favorite on the slate (-240), and that’s particularly important on FanDuel where a heavy emphasis is placed on the win.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) is a little pricey for us in a tough environment, but he’s got overall SP1 upside on this slate and should be used in tournaments. Another interesting tournament option is Dodgers pitcher Jose De Leon (LAD) who plenty of K potential ZiPS and Teamer both project him over 10.5 K/9. He struck out 9 in 6 IP in his debut, but the negative park and league shifts have us keeping our enthusiasm in check. If you’re not comfortable with Cole, you could shift to De Leon in DraftKings cash.

Catcher Rankings

1) Buster Posey (SF)

2) Victor Martinez (DET)

3) Yasmani Grandal (LAD)

4) Evan Gattis (HOU)

5) Gary Sanchez (NYY)

Buster Posey (SF) has been cold lately (-.6 delta in our well-hit tool). We still have a tough time getting away from the really good price on DraftKings against Paul Clemens (6.51 FIP). However, both Yasmani Grandal (LAD) and Evan Gattis (HOU) possess more power upside. The latter is our top option on FanDuel given the cap relief he offers ($1k less than Posey).

First Base Rankings

1) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

2) Joey Votto (CIN)

3) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

4) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

5) Freddie Freeman (ATL)

For the most part we’re looking to pay up at first base. While Joey Votto (CIN) is a very strong target in a vacuum (great park, Peralta has horrific splits against LHBs), pricing pushes us a bit more the way of Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (too cheap at home versus a LHP, even a solid one such as Anderson), Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) (great versus same handed pitching at home and Odorizzi has reverse splits), and Freddie Freeman (ATL). On FanDuel we don’t see much trouble paying up, but if you were to use Price as your pitcher, you may need some cap relief. In that scenario, Justin Bour (MIA) pops as a smart cap relief option at the position; opposing pitcher Mike Foltynewicz has allowed a .364 wOBA and .267 ISO to LHBs since 2015.

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Jason Kipnis (CLE)

3) Brian Dozier (MIN)

4) Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

5) Robinson Cano (SEA)

This is as stacked as we’ve seen the second base position in a long time. All top of the ranked options (particularly the top four) are in excellent situations and can be used in all formats. Jose Altuve (HOU) does separate himself from the pack with his elite talent against LHP (.418 wOBA, .188 ISO since 2015) and overall skills (89.6 contact rate, 49 combined homers and steals). In a good spot against Martin Perez, he’s the option we’re most likely to use if paying up in cash. Aside from depth up top, there are strong punts on both sites. Dee Gordon (MIA) has been really bad this year but is sill cheap on FanDuel, especially when you consider Foltynewicz’s splits and Atlanta’s difficulties controlling the running game. Over on DraftKings, Scooter Gennett (MIL) and teammates are way too cheap as they face Keyvius Sampson in Cincinnati. Sampson is wild and extremely homer prone. ZiPS projects him for a 5.60 ERA.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Carlos Correa (HOU)

2) Corey Seager (LAD)

3) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

4) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

5) Brandon Crawford (SF)

Shortstop is pretty healthy as well. Carlos Correa (HOU) ranks as the top option in our model, but his poor well-hit rating recently draws him back to the rest of the pack. He’s our preferred cash target due to price, but where priced similarly we view Corey Seager (LAD) and in particular, Xander Bogaerts (BOS) (.385 wOBA versus LHP since 2015, great park for RHBs, love getting exposure to Boston where everything else is close) as reasonable pivots in all formats, even if they lag a little behind in our model. Marcus Semien (OAK) provides cheap power upside against Dillon Gee (1.77 HR/9 this season) if you’re looking to go cheaper at the position.

Third Base Rankings

1) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

2) Nolan Arenado (COL)

3) Justin Turner (LAD)

4) Miguel Sano (MIN)

5) Evan Longoria (TB)

On both sites the decision is pretty binary. You can pay up for Josh Donaldson (TOR) at home for a Jays team with a 5 IRT. He’ll face Jake Odorizzi (.351 wOBA and .231 ISO versus RHBs since 2015). Or you can still grab a Top 5 ranked option at more of a mid-tier price point. The best options to do that with are Evan Longoria (TB) on DraftKings (big park shift, wide splits guy) or Justin Turner (LAD) (huge park shift, great against same handed pitching).

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

3) Mookie Betts (BOS)

4) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

5) Ryan Braun (MIL)

6) Bryce Harper (WAS)

7) George Springer (HOU)

8) AJ Pollock (ARI)

9) Jose Bautista (TOR)

10) Gregory Polanco (PIT)

11) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

12) Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

13) Christian Yelich (MIA)

14) Starling Marte (PIT)

15) Kris Bryant (CHC)

It’s really a good day to target Top 10 outfielders. Many of them find themselves in very good spots and reasonable price tags. Mike Trout (LAA) is really affordable on FanDuel versus southpaw Ariel Miranda (5.45 FIP in 35.2 MLB innings). Carlos Gonzalez (COL) is on the road but still in a plus park at Chase Field, and Shelby Miller has been an utter disaster against LHBs this season (.415 wOBA, .327 ISO). The bullpen behind him isn’t much better. Mookie Betts (BOS) gives you bit time event upside and exposure to a Red Sox team with an IRT of 5.7, clearly the highest on the slate. Ryan Braun (MIL) and Jose Bautista (TOR) are both underpriced across the industry. Braun was supposed to face Desclafani, but instead it is Keyvius Sampson, who in a small sample size has a 4.94 xFIP and 22 percent hard minus soft hit rate against RHBs. While we could go on and on given the slew of strong OF options in good spots, you get the point. The aforementioned names are our favorite targets, and you should be paying up here, in at least two spots.

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Boston Red Sox

Tier Two

2) Houston Astros

3) Toronto Blue Jays

4) Colorado Rockies

The Red Sox are the clear cut best team stack as evidenced by their very high team total. At home in Fenway (amazing for RHBs), they should get to LHP Wade Miley. In cash games, we don’t mind forcing Red Sox exposure where values are close. For example, Betts may want to be the top outfielder your prioritize in cash games. In tournaments, David Ortiz could go under owned in a L/L matchup.

Tournament Stacks

-Milwaukee Brewers (positive park shift, which is rare for them; starting pitcher is wild and homer prone; guaranteed nine innings on the road versus one of the worst bullpens in baseball)

– Colorado Rockies (Shelby Miller and the Diamondbacks bullpen have been a recipe for disaster this season, and despite Colorado being away from Coors, they’re playing in a favorable hitting environment tonight)

-San Francisco Giants (this is a contrarian stack but due to park and recency bias, look for almost no ownership on the Giants on a large slate, but they are tied for the sixth highest team total on the slate)