Welcome to September 13 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 13 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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September 13 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:39 Starting Pitcher
09:52 First Base
12:07 Second Base
13:55 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
September 13 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
While it’s a pretty deep SP slate, we still value paying all the way up for Max Scherzer (WAS), who has some absurd Vegas odds – -340 favorite with a 2.8 IRTA. Our 8.7 K projection for Scherzer is the most on the slate by 1.6 strikeouts. It’s wild to say at his costly price tag, but we view him as the best per dollar value on the slate.
Slotting in behind Scherzer in terms of raw overall projection are Yu Darvish (LAD), Jon Lester (CHC), and Ervin Santana (MIN). On DK, an alternative route to using Scherzer would be to double up on Darvish-Lester for a similar cost as Scherzer-mid-tier value. The biggest issue here are Darvish’s recent performances. He’s averaged just 5 Ks over his last four starts and 4 ERs as well. Those rocky performances make him a better tournament play than cash game play when you can get up to Scherzer’s awesome floor/ceiling combination. We generally view Ervin Santana (MIN) as overpriced given how he’s outmatched his skills. On FD for this slate, though, the price on Santana provides a nice value given a positive park shift, positive league shift, and facing a Padres team that ranks 27th in wRC+ against RHP with a 25,1 K% (second highest). He’s viable in tournaments on that site.
Given Darvish’s recent issues, we’d like to lock down Scherzer as our SP1. That puts us in the market for a mid-tier SP2. The best options are Marcus Stroman (TOR) and Lance McCullers (HOU). While our model likes McCullers, we view him similarly as Darvish – a high K option in a good matchup who gets driven to tournament only status due to recent performances. After struggling prior to landing on the DL, McCullers turned in a pedestrian performance in his first start back from the DL. That makes four consecutive starts with an xFIP of 4.73 or higher. Stroman, meanwhile, has been a model of consistency, posting sub-3.60 xFIPs in six of seven starts. He does face a hot Orioles team while lacking some of the elite K upside of some of his peers, but he’s a strong cash game candidate alongside Scherzer on DK.
Some intriguing high K options for tournaments are Dan Straily (MIA) and Tyler Glasnow (PIT). Straily, as we’ve mentioned previously, has volatile game to game K percentages, allowing you to grab 30-plus K% upside at a reasonable price tag. Glasnow was a disaster during his MLN run, but he’s once again shredded AAA prior to his call up, striking out 9, 9, 9, 10, and 11 batters over his last five starts. He gets to face a swing and miss Brewers team, but also has absolutely no floor given his wildness, the negative park shift, and a 4.8 IRTA.
Jack Flaherty (STL) lags behind Glasnow in our tournament rankings but is another punt price option for GPPs that has decent strikeout upside.
On FD, Aaron Nola (PHI) has a depressed price tag that puts him in the Stroman/McCullers tier as a mid-tier value option if eschewing a top option like Scherzer, but the pricing on Scherzer/Santana/Darvish still leaves him low on our radar.
We’re once again on wait and see mode at the catcher position. We do know that Willson Contreras (CHC) is the top projected scorer at the position. The Cubs are carrying like five catchers in their roster right now and Contreras just came back from a hamstring injury, so there’s a chance that he will continue to get lifted late in the game in the foreseeable future. Contreras does have a strong context (cleanup hitter, Matt Harvey is a shell of the pitcher he once was) and where he’s cheap (on FD) he enters the cash game conversation.
Stephen Vogt (MIL) (platoon edge against Glasnow, who’s allowed nearly two HR/9 through 12 starts this season; he’s our lean in cash games, and on FD you can have access to him at a punt price), Mike Zunino (SEA) (another cheap C with upside on FD) and Jason Castro (MIN) (viable on DK) are other values that are playable at the position.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) and Anthony Rizzo (CHC) represent the top projected scorers at first base. We love their upside, but full price tags push them towards the tournament conversation tonight. The exception would be Rizzo on FD where he’s $3,900 and very playable in cash games.
Hanley Ramirez (BOS) is too cheap around the industry if he ends up hitting cleanup once again. He’s part of a Red Sox offense that has a slate high IRT of 5.6 runs, and we love the matchup against Jharel Cotton (46% FB rate, 2.04 HR/9 surrendered this season) in Fenway park. IF Eric Thames (MIL) found himself back in the leadoff spot for the Brewers, he would emerge as the top value in this slate regardless of position. He has very cheap price tags around the industry and we’re fans of his upside (.269 ISO in 500 PAs this season). Wil Myers (SD) remains free on DK ($3,400) as well though he has the toughest matchup of the group (Ervin Santana). Ryan Zimmerman (WSH) is also cheap-ish on FD ($3,200) with the platoon edge but he does have a matchup against an intriguing prospect (Luiz Gohara – posted big K rates in the minors).
Jose Altuve (HOU) carries the top projection at second base, but he’s just too expensive to consider in cash games. We do like him in tournaments given his upside (especially with the platoon edge). The same can be said for Brian Dozier (MIN).
We’re saving money at the position in cash games, and even in tournaments there are some intriguing names with upside that can be had for cheap. Neil Walker (MIL) and Dustin Pedroia (BOS) are the main two values the position. We like Walker’s upside (.211 ISO baseline from the left side of the plate), but Pedroia won’t hit worse than second against a fly ball pitcher in Fenway Park.
Chris Taylor (LAD) will hit in a terrible hitting environment (AT&T Park), but he’ll have the platoon edge vs. Matt Moore and he carries event upside. He’s just $3,500 on DK. Rougned Odor (TEX) has been cold of late but we like his power upside in Texas vs. a RHP. Odor is sub $3,000 on FD.
Nolan Arenado (COL) is the top projected scorer at third base, but you’re not looking his way in cash games thanks to an appropriate price tag outside of Coors Field. Kris Bryant (CHC) is another pricey target in a good matchup that we prefer in tournaments.
The cash game conversation at the position is a bit site dependent. On DK, Freddie Freeman (ATL) has been priced for a matchup vs. Max Scherzer. He’s $3,800 on that site, which is certainly not an appropriate price tag relative to his skills. We love the price tag, but if you wanted to pivot to a high upside option like Joey Gallo (TEX) with a softer matchup, we can’t fault you. You get a lot of power with Gallo (37 HRs, massive uppercut swing) and also a lot of Ks (35.8% K rate). On FD, Jake Lamb (ARI) is the primary target at the position with the Travis Shaw (MIL) is an acceptable viable pivot on that site as he’s just $200 more expensive than Lamb and in a matchup that should accentuate the upside of these Brewers bats.
Trea Turner (WSH) follows a similar path to the top projected scorers at other positions – he’s simply too expensive for cash games. We also don’t love the matchup against a prospect that was missing plenty of bats in the minors, but that should deflate his ownership in tournaments.
Alex Bregman (HOU) (on DK), Carlos Correa (HOU) (on FD), Jean Segura (SEA) (on FD) and Kike Hernandez (LAD) are the preferred routes at the position. Hernandez is minimum priced on FD, and while he always carries PH risk, he has a .223 ISO baseline vs. LHP. Bregman and Correa carry event upside with depressed price tags. Segura will leadoff for a Mariners offense that has an IRT of 5.5 runs.
Mookie Betts (BOS) is coming off a monster performance last night, and he projects as the top scorer in this slate regardless of position. Betts has had a “down season” as his ISO has dipped a little bit, but he’s up to 20 HRs/24 SBs on the season and his plate discipline is exceptional. He’s not a difficult fit on either site, but as usual the OF is filled with plenty of strong values. Nelson Cruz (SEA) is close enough to Betts in projection as he’ll take on Martin Perez in Texas. Cruz is $3,900 on FD, which is a price tag that feels very light in this context.
The Pittsburgh OFers are back it as Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) are once again too cheap around the industry. We’re baffled by their sub $3,000 price tags on FD. This is a massive park shift for these two, as they’re going from a bottom five environment for RHBs to one of the better hitting environments in the league. Gregory Polanco (PIT) is just $3,100 on DK. Staying in that game, Eric Thames (MIL) with 1B/OF eligibility on DK makes him an exciting target as long as he gets a good lineup spot. Teammate Ryan Braun (MIL) is just $3,400 on FD. Jesse Winker (CIN) (if in the leadoff spot once again – free on DK), Dexter Fowler (STL) ($3,500 on DK – he’s currently DTD), George Springer (HOU) ($3,700 on FD), A.J. Pollock (ARI) (on FD) are other targets that you can consider to round out your OF.
1) Arizona Diamondbacks
2) Milwaukee Brewers
3) Texas Rangers
4) Chicago Cubs
5) Boston Red Sox
6) Washington Nationals
It’s a fun night for tournaments with lots of stacks ranking similarly, as evidenced by a deep tier one of stacks and a deep tier two of stacks. The drop offs between stacks down the line are similar from one stack to the next.
The Diamondbacks do emerge as our top stack. German Marquez has pitched admirably for the Rockies, especially when you consider his environment, but despite a 4.14 xFIP, ZiPS and Steamer are calling for a ROS ERA about a half run higher and a high 1.42 HR/9.
The Brewers are a phenomenal tournament stack as their event upside meets a highly volatile pitcher in Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow has given up 1.99 HR/9 through 12 starts and has a slow delivery to the plat that is exceedingly easy to run against. On top of that, his wildness can lead to short, disaster outings.
The Rangers and Red Sox share the highest IRTs on this slate at 5.5.
7) Colorado Rockies
8) Seattle Mariners
9) Miami Marlins
10) Pittsburgh Pirates
While the Rockies and Pirates have relatively tame IRTS, we enjoy the upside they provide as road teams in favorable environments. After an extended run of dominance, Patrick Corbin has struggled in back to back outings and is coming off a disaster start against the Padres. The Pirates get a large positive park shift playing in Milwaukee, and opposing pitcher Chase Anderson has historically had problems allowing power to RHBs, which keeps Marte and McCutchen in play despite the lack of platoon edge.