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September 14 MLB DFS: No Need To Be Brave, Play Jose
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September 14 MLB DFS Show Outline: 

00:52 Starting Pitchers
05:38 Catchers
07:05 First Base
10:28 Second Base
11:59 Shortstops
14:19  Third Base
16:23 Outfield
19:39 Cash Game Roster Construction and Stacks


September 14 MLB DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Jose Fernandez (MIA)

Tier Two

2) Yu Darvish (TEX)

Tier Three

3) Yordano Ventura (KC)

4) Tyler Skaggs (LAA)

5) Julio Teheran (ATL)

Tier Four

6) Rick Porcello (BOS)

7) Junior Guerra (MIL)

Tier Five

8) Carlos Rodon (CHW)

9) Tim Adleman (CIN)

10) Joe Musgrove (HOU)

Jose Fernandez (MIA) is clear and away in a tier of his own this evening. Fernandez has a 2.48 xFIP and 34.9 K percent, which immediately separates himself from the pack. He’ll face an Atlanta team that has been surprisingly really good recently (fifth in wRC+ over the last 30 days). However, when looking at the individual pieces of their lineup, we’re still not impressed and have them pegged for the lowest wOBA and highest K rate against opposing starting pitcher in today’s matchups. On a medium sized slate, Fernandez is a building block.

Yu Darvish (TEX) is a good pivot off of Fernandez in tournaments and a possible complementary play on DraftKings given all of the potential cheap value on the hitting side of things. Facing an Astros team in Houston, there’s a bit more run prevention risk for Darvish, but the upside astronomical. Darvish has a high 30.1 K percentage, and he’s particularly dominant against RHBs, of which the Astros often start six or seven. The Astros possess the fourth highest K rate against RHP.

However, we’re tempted to pair Fernandez with Yordano Ventura (KC), who strikes us at very underpriced. Ventura has the second lowest IRTA (3.6) facing an Athletics team that has been brutal over the second half of the season, leading to a 24th ranking in wRC+.

Additional tournament options include Junior Guerra (MIL) (good K upside for a cheap starting pitcher) and Tim Adleman (CIN) (literally any RHP against the Brewers is worth throwing in tournaments for cheap), among other site specific options listed on the cheat sheets.

Catcher Rankings

1) Victor Martinez (DET)

2) Stephen Vogt (OAK)

3) Welington Castillo (ARI)

4) Jonathan Lucroy (TEX)

5) Cameron Rupp (PHI)

Victor Martinez (DET) is by far the best play on FanDuel as he has a reasonable cost and will be cleaning up against Tyler Duffey (in 23 starts, he’s allowed at least 4 R on 16 occasions). On DraftKings Martinez is only first base eligible and the result are a slew of catchers to pick from, none of which really stick out to us. We’ll fill out this spot last on that particular site and hope that lineup spots help us to whittle it down.

First Base Rankings

1) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

2) David Ortiz (BOS)

3) Joey Votto (CIN)

4) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

5) Chris Davis (BAL)

There are a variety of ways you can attack 1B on either site. We’re a bit inclined to pay up for Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) who faces gas can Jeff Hoffman (more BBs than Ks through four starts, 5 HRs in 17.2 IP), but where you spend in the outfield may dictate what you do here. There are still plenty of options outside of Goldschmidt. On DraftKings, you can get that Victor Martinez exposure over at first base. On FanDuel, Jose Abreu (CHW) (scorching hot as evidenced by our well-hit tool) has a nice home matchup against homer prone Josh Tomlin. Industry wide you can also pick apart the right prices on the rest of our top five ranked options or look to get cap relief with Josh Bell (PIT), who we continue to like out of the two spot, especially against Jake Thompson (5.81 FIP through seven starts) in Philadelphia (plus park shift).

Second Base Rankings

1) Ian Kinsler (DET)

2) Brian Dozier (MIN)

3) Dee Gordon (MIA)

4) Jean Segura (ARI)

5) Jose Altuve (HOU)

The top three rank pretty closely in our model, but Dee Gordon (MIA) has by far the best price point across the industry, especially on FanDuel where he comes in at a pure punt price. Gordon’s peripherals don’t actually look all that different from last season, and with stronger recent performances and better expected luck we’re buying low in the right situations. Facing a pitcher who struggles with LHBs (Teheran has allowed a .360 wOBA and .203 ISO to LHBs) and a team that can’t throw out base runners, Gordon is a nice value. On DraftKings we don’t mind getting a little bit cheaper as both Adam Frazier (PIT) and Scooter Gennett (MIL) are top of the lineup bats with plus park shifts and the platoon edge against below average RHPs.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

3) Jonathan Villar (MIL)

4) Jose Peraza (CIN)

5) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

Adam Frazier, who we mentioned at the second base position, is near min price on FanDuel with SS eligibility. If he’s hitting up top he’s another great source of cap relief to help fit in Jose Fernandez. On DraftKings the choice is a bit more difficult as Manny Machado (BAL) and Xander Bogaerts (BOS) are viable. However, Francisco Lindor (CLE) is the best value of the bunch, holding the platoon edge in US Cellular Field.

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Jake Lamb (ARI)

3) Nolan Arenado (COL)

4) Jonathan Villar (MIL)

5) Maikel Franco (PHI)

On both sites, Maikel Franco (PHI) is a very solid mid-low priced option. Franco has a very solid .355 wOBA and .232 ISO against LHP since 2015 and is at home in hitter friendly Philadelphia. If you want a bit more upside, you can pay up for Manny Machado (BAL) on DraftKings (tough R/R matchup but Machado’s skills and the park still keep him in play) or Jake Lamb (ARI) on FanDuel (touched on Hoffman’s major issues overall, and Lamb will hold the platoon edge here at a very reasonable price).

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Gregory Polanco (PIT)

3) Rajai Davis (CLE)

4) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

5) Mookie Betts (BOS)

6) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

7) Ryan Braun (MIL)

8) Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

9) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

10) JD Martinez (DET)

11) Cameron Maybin (DET)

12) Christian Yelich (MIA)

13) Adam Eaton (CHW)

14) Adam Jones (BAL)

15) Adam Duvall (CIN)

There are a slew of decisions to make in the outfield, which will have an impact on the rest of your lineup. If you are paying up, it’s likely for Mike Trout (LAA) (mostly due to his skills as it’s a R/R matchup at home against an average pitcher), Carlos Gonzalez (COL) (Rubby de la Rosa won’t pitch deep and has wide splits; good park, horrible Arizona bullpen), or Gregory Polanco (PIT) (big breakout year in terms of power thanks to higher fly ball and hard hit rates). Rajai Davis (CLE) is in that mix too, but he’s priced so kindly on DraftKings we don’t even consider it paying up (love using him against LHP, especially on the road when Cleveland is expected to have success). Now if you’re going to be more price conscious, you’ll complement one of Davis/Polanco (seem to be best combinations of high overall rank and pricing) with either a mid-tier priced Top 10 option or a cheaper value. In the latter category, we have Cameron Maybin (DET) on both sites. Outside of him it’s more site specific options like Adam Duvall (CIN) (good power upside at home despite R/R matchup) on FanDuel and Josh Bell (PIT) on DraftKings.

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Arizona Diamondbacks

2) Detroit Tigers

3) Boston Red Sox

It’s a bit chalky up top as these three teams all have the highest IRTs (5 or higher) while all the other teams on the slate are at 4.7 or lower. Arizona and Detroit are the easier options to get access to in cash games.

Tournament Stacks

-Pittsburgh Pirates (love picking on Jake Thompson as he hits the trifecta – misses a below average amount of bats, is wild, allows homers; on top of all that a nice park shift for a Pittsburgh team guaranteed a full nine innings on the road)

-Seattle Mariners (as mentioned yesterday, this offense has several hitters that possess positive delta’s in our well-hit tool over the last two weeks; you never quite know what you’re getting out of Tyler Skaggs, which makes him tough to pick on in cash games but a smart target in tournaments)

MLB Daily Analysis

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