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September 15 MLB DFS: An Expensive Sale
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Welcome to September 15 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for September 15 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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September 15 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:50 Starting Pitcher
08:14 Catcher
10:02 First Base
14:41 Second Base
18:46 Third Base
21:32 Shortstop
23:13 Outfield
25:36 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

September 15 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Chris Sale (BOS), Luis Severino (NYY), and Robbie Ray (ARI) headline the top of the starting pitching projections. All three draw pretty favorable matchups with Sale facing a Rays’ offense that ranks 22nd in wRC+ against LHP with the league’s highest K Rate (26 percent), Ray facing the Giants 27th ranked offense in wRC+ against LHP and getting a big park boost, and Severino facing an Orioles’ offense that is severely right-handed. Sale is the most expensive of the bunch but also has the steadiest baseline as Severino and Ray have ascended more recently. Sale is our preferred cash game target with the lowest implied run total against (3.2) and highest K projection (nine) but Ray and Severino are really strong pivots in tournaments.

On DraftKings, it’s pretty difficult to afford a pairing of two studs with all carrying price tags above $12,000. As a result, we’ll shift our attention to some salary relief in the SP2 slot. Sean Newcomb (ATL) fits the bill. Newcomb faces a Mets’ offense that has been neutered against LHP with the losses of Cespedes and Flores. Newcomb has already demonstrated the ability to miss bats at the major league level (22.7 K Rate) and at AAA this season he was especially dominant (2.97 ERA, 29.7 K Rate) with his biggest weakness the walks (13.3 percent). The Mets lineup doesn’t project for a ton of walks and profiles as AAA quality. Newcomb has just a 4.3 implied total against and is a strong favorite at home (-150). For $6,700, he’s your primary target as SP2. On FanDuel, Newcomb is an intriguing GPP pivot from the studs since the site doesn’t penalize for WHIP.
The primary alternatives to Newcomb are slightly more expensive and more experienced targets like J.A. Happ (TOR), Charlie Morton (HOU), and Jeff Samardzija (SF). All three have more difficult matchups against above average offenses for their platoon split (MIN, SEA, and ARI) but come with solid strikeout upside. The implied totals and strikeout projections on all three aren’t far away from Newcomb which is why Newcomb rates as the better value.

Catcher

The catcher position is one you’re filling out last. Gary Sanchez (NYY) is clearly the top target, but he’s expensive. We’d rather pursue his upside in tournaments.

Stephen Vogt (MIL) (on FD), Jonathan Lucroy (COL) (on DK), Yasmani Grandal (LAD) and Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) (on FD) are the values we’re pursuing at the position. Vogt is an obvious choice if he’s in the lineup – he’s minimum priced with the platoon edge in a strong hitting environment. Grandal could catapult to the top of the value rankings should he draw a more favorable lineup spot than seventh. He’ll hit from the left side of the plate vs. Edwin Jackson. Lucroy isn’t a good hitter, but he gives you access to the Rockies’ slate high IRT in Coors. Lucroy has a reasonable price tag on DK.  

First Base

Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Joey Votto (CIN) represent the top projected scorers at a position that has some intriguing cheap targets. These two are excellent hitters, but full price tags limit them to tournaments only in this slate.

Miguel Cabrera (DET) is now priced for his career low performance this season. It’ll be hard not to go back to the well here in cash games give these price tags tonight. Carson Fulmer projects very poorly (5.79 ERA/5.39 FIP in 25 starts at AAA this season), and a result the Tigers have an unusually high IRT that’s approaching five runs. Cabrera simply fits the slate.

Eric Thames (MIL) (if leading off), Mark Reynolds and Ian Desmond (COL) (on DK) are viable alternatives in cash games, but they’ll come with bigger price tags. Justin Smoak (TOR) is $2,900 on FD. He’s a strong cash game play on that site and allows you to diversify away from Miggy.

Cody Bellinger (LAD), Wil Myers (SD) and Jose Abreu (CWS) are viable pivots in tournaments. We don’t expect them to be popular, and they each carry upside in their individual contexts.

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu (COL) is the top projected scorer at second base. He grades out well on DK where the price tag is a little light ($4,400), but if you needed to go a bit cheaper at the position it’s viable to do so.

Neil Walker (MIL), Ian Kinsler (DET) (on FD), Chris Taylor (LAD) (on DK) and Yangervis Solarte (SD) (on DK) are the cheaper targets were pursuing in cash games. Walker is on the road, hitting from the left side of the plate (.182 ISO vs. RHP since 2015) vs. Jose Urena (39% FB rate this season). Kinsler is leading off against Carson Fulmer and he’s just $2,900 on FD. Taylor and Solarte are also underpriced for their contexts on DK. Scooter Gennett (CIN) should be considered in tournaments with a similar price tag to the options above. Gennett has been hitting cleanup of late and he’s in one of the best environments for home runs in the entire league.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL) is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. He projects like a cash game lock and we’re treating him as such on DK. On FD, the $5,200 price tag might take you away from Chris Sale, which is okay if you’re comfortable with Severino. There’s not much to say here than what you already know – Arenado is in Coors with the platoon edge, and we have a .403 wOBA and .296 ISO for him in this split.

The main alternative at the position is a reasonably priced Josh Donaldson (TOR), who trails Arenado by two full DK points in projection and nearly three on FD. Justin Turner (LAD) and Travis Shaw (MIL) are other pivots that are worthy of a mention in strong matchups. Arenado’s ownership in tournaments is likely going to be high, so if you’re fading him in some lineups we recommend having exposure to this trio. Freddie Freeman (ATL) also belongs in that conversation, but he will cost you as much as Arenado on DK.

Shortstop

Trevor Story (COL) has a 38.5% HHR over the L15, and he’ll have the platoon edge in Coors tonight. You know what Story is at this point – lots of Ks, but when he’s right the ball is leaving the park. He always profiles better as a tournament play because of the wide range of outcomes, but decent price tags with his upside at an ugly position puts him in the cash game conversation as well.

Corey Seager (LAD) is criminally underpriced, especially on FD where you’re locking him in cash games and feeling great about it. Seager is somehow $2,900 on that site, a price tag that feels adjusted to a difficult matchup. That’s not exactly Edwin Jackson, who’s sporting a cool 5.85 FIP. Even the $4,100 price tag on DK is light, it’s just a matter of being able to reach it.

Other routes at the position include Freddy Galvis (PHI) (punt price) and a Coors Field option, Yangervis Solarte (SD). Both of these options are viable on DK.

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) vs. Nick Martinez is probably the top option on any other slate but this one. We really like him in tournaments as Martinez is a pitcher we love to pick on due to his propensity to allow HRs.

The OF is loaded with good values. In the mid-tier, we still get Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) projecting well thanks to another massive park shift. These two are used to hitting in one of the worst RH environments in all of baseball, and tonight they’re in one of the best home run parks in all of baseball. Marte will also run on anyone. If it wasn’t enough, Homer Bailey will be on the mound. Ian Desmond (COL) gives you additional exposure to Coors on DK where he’s just $3,600. Eric Thames (MIL) projects as our best OF value on DK, but he needs to be in the leadoff spot for that projection to hold. This game is in Milwaukee, but it will count as a road game for the Brewers. Ryan Braun (MIL) and Jose Bautista (TOR) have sub $4,000 price tags on DK. That’s five OFs that you can choose from with sub $4,000 price tags on that site that allow you to build around Sale + Arenado. On FD, You have Jesse Winker (CIN) and Curtis Granderson (LAD) with really cheap price tags.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

We are Charlie Brown and the Rockies are Lucy holding the football.

Once again, the Rockies get a soft-tossing LHP who doesn’t miss bats in Coors Field for their slew of RH power targets. They have an implied total nearly a run and a half higher than everyone else on the slate.

Tier Two

2) Los Angeles Dodgers

3) Milwaukee Brewers

4) San Diego Padres

This tier is filled with cold offenses in good spots. The Dodgers go on the road for a park upgrade and a matchup with Edwin Jackson. The Brewers get a unique “road” game in their awesome offensive environment against a contact oriented Jose Urena and a depleted Marlins bullpen, while the Padres get the big park bump in Coors Field. The Brewers remain exceptionally cheap, especially on FanDuel, which makes them a strong target on a slate with so much elite pitching.

Tier Three

5) Cincinnati Reds

6) Chicago White Sox

7) Philadelphia Phillies

8) New York Yankees

9) Oakland Athletics

10) Toronto Blue Jays

11) Atlanta Braves

The offenses really get condensed after the first two tiers as there is a lot of bad SP on this slate. The White Sox are interesting with Anibal Sanchez‘s extreme struggles with power of late and especially RH power. The White Sox two best hitters are both RH (Abreu and Garcia) and while the rest of the offense isn’t good it does have some pop. The Athletics projected lineup leads the slate in hard hit rate over their last 15 days (26+ percent) and have annoyingly high price tags that should keep ownership non-existent. The Yankees figure to be a bit more chalky than this ranking. They’re likely only getting eight innings of offense and their ranking is highly dependent on the lineup they run out as guys like Ellsbury-Headley can hurt the overall stack appeal.