September 17 CFB DFS Picks: Super Demario
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
If there’s something you’d like to see added or have any questions, please email us at email@example.com.
*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
Clemson @ Louisville
Spread: Clemson -6
The Louisville defense was one of the most intriguing situations to watch here in early weeks for two reasons:
- The loss of all four starting defensive backs.
- The matchups they had in the first two games.
Going into the week one matchup against Auburn, we considered Louisville to be a tough matchup for Auburn’s offense due to the Louisville front seven being so strong in 2014 (31st in havoc rate) and the core of that front seven returning. Auburn struggled to get the offense rolling and they threw three interceptions. Last weekend though, Houston was much more efficient than Auburn, completing nearly 66% of passes and throwing three touchdowns to just one interception. The yards per attempt number was still low (6.7), but Houston doesn’t have what we would consider to be a strong receiving core to make big plays for Greg Ward Jr. (the Houston quarterback).
The Clemson offense doesn’t have this problem. Even with Mike Williams out, Artavis Scott and Charone Peake should be great on the outside against the Cards secondary. Peake is a fifth year senior with bad numbers over the course of his career, but he posted a great 4/86/2 line against Appalachian State last week. Scott is the superstar receiver for the Tigers and he’s a consistent threat each and every week. In both games this season, he has caught six passes for mid-70s yardage and one touchdown. With those two games being blowouts, we expect Scott’s floor to be 6/70/1 and his upside to be extremely attractive. Therefore, at his price across the industry, we consider him to be a core play on every site. Peake also has a great price and will be a core play in cash games on FanDuel and DraftKings where he provides salary relief. The Tigers’ quarterback has thrown for five touchdowns against considerably lesser opponents. And while Clemson faces a step up in defensive competition this week in Louisville, we still believe the Cardinals’ secondary can be exposed. Deshaun Watson is a better passing version of Greg Ward Jr., who just last week lit the UofL secondary on fire for three touchdown passes, despite the lack of possessing any real receiving threats. With Watson rushing nine times against App State, we are also confident about his rushing potential and usage. This is Clemson’s first ACC game of the season and we don’t’ expect Watson to be held back at all. He has completed 77% of his passes for 9.21 yards per attempt. For these reasons, the Tigers’ gunslinger is our favorite quarterback of the slate.