September 19 CFB DFS Picks (Early Slate): Welcome to Ferby’s Hood
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “RealestChrisKay” and “TheNumbersGuy.” Each week we break down the largest college football slates to give you the best top, value, and cheap plays based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
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*Rankings are out of a possible 128 schools
**Advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders
***Target statistics courtesy of NCAA Savant
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma vs. Tulsa) – The Sooners have an implied team total of 50.5 points, which is the second highest on this slate. This is a total mismatch. Oklahoma ranked 14th in Off. S&P+ in 2014 and they’re looking to improve this season with Samaje Perrine (top running back) and Sterling Shepard (top receiver) back in 2015. Tulsa ranked 122nd out of 128 possible teams in FBS in Def. S&P+ and their defensive backs weren’t active (defensive backs were ranked 121st in Havoc Rate). Mayfield is a Texas Tech transfer who’s already shining early this season. From a usage standpoint, Mayfield is averaging 36 passing attempts/10 rushing attempts per game. The usage has led to awesome production (averaging four touchdowns per game). He hasn’t been particularly accurate (58 percent completion percentage) and his yards per attempt are about average (eight yards per attempt), but the excellent usage in a matchup against a team that can’t stop the run or pass should translate into a big Fantasy performance.
Wes Lunt (Illinois vs. North Carolina) – It’s tough to evaluate North Carolina’s defense at this very moment. They were able to hire Gene Chizik as their defensive coordinator, who was known for his defensive prowess in his time at Auburn. North Carolina was horrific defensively in 2014, ranking 99th in Def. S&P+ and they weren’t active as a unit (ranked 93rd in Havoc Rate). It’s going to take a recruiting effort to bring in players that fit Chizik’s style of defense, but they could be a bit better in 2015. They’re returning 81 percent of the defensive starters from last season, so this is a more experienced group. We still remain a bit skeptical here and we’re not going to be shy in picking on this defense. Illinois was about an average offense last season (ranked 60th in Off. S&P+) but they return their quarterback, Wes Lunt. Lunt is an accurate passer (64 percent completion percentage in 2014) and despite not being explosive (7.4 yards per attempt), he’s averaging 33 passing attempts and almost three touchdowns per game this season. Lunt should be playing from behind in this one, as the Tar Heels are favored by nine points. On a site like FanDuel where Lunt is significantly discounted to our top play, his salary relief allows you to have plenty of financial flexibility to pay up at other skill positions.